Get It Done With The 1st Hour Strategy
Listen to Kevin talk about
trading, and his upcoming seminar,
here.
What Thursday’s Action Tells
You
The SPX
(
$SPX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) made it six in a row
yesterday and is +4.1% from the retracement to the 200-day EMA and
confluence
zone. It closed at 1121.26 yesterday, +0.6%. The Dow
(
$INDU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was
10,205
and +0.9%, the Nasdaq
(
$COMPQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 1984, +0.9%, and the
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 36.42,
+0.6%.
NYSE volume was 1.44 billion shares, with the
volume ratio very positive once again at 73, which is also the 4 MA. Breadth
was
+1292, helped again in part by the
(
TLT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)‘s fourth straight up day at
+0.8%
and now +1.9% for the four days. The TLT rally started after the magnet low
of
80.91 on 08/14/03 was taken out.
In the sectors, retail led with the RTH
+1.7%.
The XAU had another up day at +1.4% and all the gold positions are now flat,
as
the XAU approaches its 200-day EMA. This corner will be looking to the short
side of the sector if the XAU makes it to the 93 zone. It is also time to
look
for the next oversold sector/group that gets as oversold as the metals
sector
did, and as the semis.
For Active
Traders
The QQQ hit its 36.50 intraday high on the
10:05
a.m. ET bar, right at the high end of our trading plan resistance. You
either
pulled the trigger, or you fell into your usual trap of “it looks too
good to
short.” Net net, you take the trade with a tight stop above 36.60,
which is also
the down trendline from 39 and the eighth day off the 34.11 low at +7.0% for
the
move. The contra move didn’t go far, however, hitting a 36.06 intraday low,
and
then basing at the 30-minute 20 EMA. It rallied to 36.42 into the
close.
The SPY was the same kind of trade, hitting
its
113.03 intraday high on the same 10:05 a.m. bar with the contra move
declining
to 112.06 before resuming the direction of the open and closing at 112.87.
If
you have the sequence course, just check your “90% – 60%” rule and
stay with it,
especially when price reaches one of their anticipated zones.
Today’s
Action
After a possible first-hour strategy, the
trading
day will quiet down quickly, and many of the honchos will leave early for
the
long weekend and leave the rookies to man the desk. That means to them,
“Don’t
take any unnecessary risks while the boss is away,” which translates
into stocks
can get pushed around without much volume by some of the upstairs weasels,
which
is always a frustration to the Generals who are trying to get something
done.
color=”#0000FF”>Trivia
Another presidential candidate has promised
to
free us of our dependence on Middle East oil. It doesn’t matter, Democrat or
Republican, they have all said the same thing since I was in college, and
that
goes back to when the Wankel engine was going to be the “answer”
to our energy
problem.
Have a great holiday weekend and drive
safely.
The next commentary will be on Wednesday. (You’ve got to smell the roses
every
now and then.)
Kevin Haggerty
P.S. I’m pleased to announce my new workshop, Trading with the
Generals 2004, will be held at New York’s Waldorf-Astoria on June 25 – 27.
To ensure everyone gets personal attention, I’m limiting participation to 50
live and 40 live via Internet. If you want to attend, make sure you reserve
your space early.Â
Click here.