Greenspan Lifts The Greenback
Comments from Fed Chair Greenspan are working to boost the dollar. Greenspan
told the Senate Banking Committee that the "central tendency of individual
FOMC members’ forecasts for GDP growth this year" are in the 2% to 2.5%
range. This morning’s surprisingly strong retail sales numbers from the US and
unexpected drop in retail sales figures from Germany (the fourth straight such
drop) are working to support Greenspan’s implication that the US will not slip
into recession and causing observers to reassess that the US economy is not as
bad as has been feared.
A relatively better-performing US economy is positive for
the dollar and also means the Fed may not have to be as aggressive in reducing
interest rates to keep the economy from grinding to a halt. Higher relative
interest rates in the US are dollar positive as the higher rates tend to
heighten demand for dollar-denominated assets.
March dollar index futures
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performing best against euro FX futures
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weighted currency on the dollar index. The ECH is down .01050 to .92150. Swiss francs
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are also down .0058 to .6002.
Stock index futures are trading narrowly but positively,
waiting out the Greenspan testimony.
Dow futures
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PowerRating) appear to be the contract to watch, as they are on
the Momentum-5
List and are rallying for a second day out of a Pullback From Highs
setup. Also note that a critical mass of signals are lit on the
Market
Bias Indicators Page, suggesting an up day. Naz futures
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have gotten a jump on the day as well and are poised to revert to their normal
or higher volatility, a situation brought out by their Multiple Days Low
Volatility reading.
In the softs, cocoa
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PowerRating) is continuing
for a second day to rally out of its Pullback From Highs
setup. The contract is trading on its highs after incompletely filling this
mornings pop up (lap) opening. Cocoa is also the leading Momentum-5
market.
Finally,
coffee
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PowerRating), from the 6/100 Low Volatility
List, is making a bit of a pop higher after trolling seven-and-a-half-year
lows. Coffee registered a Turtle Soup Plus One Buy on Feb. 8, but has traded
sideways after the signal. Coffee is up 1.00 to 63.60.