Hanging On Or Breaking Down?
All this talk about big moves
and the start of something big…well, the facts are
that the DOW hasn’t budged this week, the S&P 500 hasn’t budged this week
and the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are up a little
less than 3%. WOW!
My problem is one-fold. As the SEMIS
(
SOX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
had a strong week, the rest of the market
is starting to gag. Most of the leading sectors of the past six months
are not hanging on, they are breaking down. Do
you remember TOBACCO, GAMING, OIL SEVICES,
UTILITIES, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY, RESTAURANTS…in other words, continued
viscous sector rotation. Haven’t I said that
before?
This looooong, drawn-out trading range is wearing a lot of
people down. I urge you to
understand that this is not a game for the impatient. My job in life
is to try and make money but, in times like
this, my job is also not to lose. Keep
your eye on that one important fact. I have seen too many people pay a stiff
price trying to force the issue.
The NASDAQ chart is showing a 16-week trading range. There
is a lot of anticipation of a
breakout. I will say that it is putting in an effort, but have
serious doubts as to whether it can get the job done near-term. In my
opinion, important resistance lies at
2105…then 2180 and the big goal of 2325.
The DOW and S&P are another story: trading ranges
lasting over two years. Why do I
have the feeling they may be at this level several months down the road?
I would have loved to issue a bunch of
clean breakouts but the market is void of
them. Wait until they show. Remember, you cannot hide leadership or
institutional buying.
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND