Have Bonds Topped?
BOND MARKET RECAP
11/19/2004
March Bonds closed down 0-30 at 111-24. This was
0-08 up from the low and 1-06 off the high.
March 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished down 0-190 at
112-095, 0-250 off the high and 0-070 up from the low.
The Treasury market was apparently
undermined by comments from Greenspan that the sharp decline in the Dollar would
not result in a disaster. It seems that the Treasury market was recently being
boosted by concerns that the falling Dollar was going to upend the US economy
and the Chairman down played that threat and that sunk prices. However, there
was enough weakness in the stock market and enough strength in the energy
complex to discourage an all out stop loss selling debacle in Treasuries.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (MAR) 11/22/2004: The market back below the
40-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down.
Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher
price action. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. The outside day down and close below the previous day’s
low is a negative signal. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the
market on the defensive. The next upside objective is 113-13. The next area of
resistance is around 112-14 and 113-13, while 1st support hits today at 111-01
and below there at 110-18.
TNOTES (MAR) 11/22/2004: The major trend has
turned down with the cross over back below the 40-day moving average. Momentum
studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher
if resistance levels are penetrated. The market’s short-term trend is negative
as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The outside day down is
somewhat negative. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market
on the defensive. The near-term upside target is at 112-270. The next area of
resistance is around 112-060 and 112-270, while 1st support hits today at
111-065 and below there at 110-275.
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STOCK INDICES RECAP
11/19/2004
December S&P finished down 12.9 at 1172.1, 13.1
off the high and 2.8 up from the low.
December S&P E-Mini closed down 12.5 at 1172.5.
This was 3.25 up from the low and 13.25 off the high.
December Dow closed down 109 at 10481. This was
36 up from the low and 29 off the high.
December Dow E-Mini finished down 112 at 10475,
115 off the high and 28 up from the low.
Just to highlight the negative tilt assumed by
the stock market we saw a cable news headline around mid day that suggested
stock prices were down because of mad cow! The presence of expiration might have
given the market an added volatility kick and with the US Dollar falling to yet
another lower level we can understand the bears having a little added incentive.
We would have normally expected the stock market to bounce off the comments from
Greenspan who suggested that a crisis wasn’t in the cards because of the Dollar
but again the market initially embraced all the bear items. Considering that a
large portion of the early selling was probably unwinding into the expiration we
would not assume that some major trend change is in the offing.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (DEC) 11/22/2004: Momentum studies are
trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break
below the 1st swing support. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average
is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The defensive setup,
with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness. The
next downside objective is now at 1158.78. The next area of resistance is around
1180.05 and 1190.57, while 1st support hits today at 1164.15 and below there at
1158.78.
SP EMINI (DEC) 11/22/2004: Stochastics turning
bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels
are broken. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below
the 9-day moving average. The defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd
swing support, could cause some early weakness. The next downside objective is
1158.50. The next area of resistance is around 1180.75 and 1191.50, while 1st
support hits today at 1164.25 and below there at 1158.50.
NASDAQ (DEC) 11/22/2004: A bearish signal was
triggered on a crossover down in the daily stochastics. Stochastics turning
bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels
are broken. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term
indicator for trend. The market is in a bearish position with the close below
the 2nd swing support number. The next downside target is now at 1534.25. The
next area of resistance is around 1573.50 and 1592.25, while 1st support hits
today at 1544.50 and below there at 1534.25.
MINIDOW (DEC) 11/22/2004: A crossover down in the
daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Momentum studies are trending lower from
high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing
support. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the
short-term trend remains negative. There could be some early pressure today
given the market’s negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support.
The next downside objective is 10355. The next area of resistance is around
10547 and 10640, while 1st support hits today at 10405 and below there at 10355.
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CURRENCY MARKET RECAP
11/19/2004
December US Dollar finished down 40 at 8332, 53
off the high and 24 up from the low.
December Euro finished up 0.4 at 130.15, 0.51 off
the high and 0.09 up from the low.
December Euro Dollar closed down 0.01 at 97.5325.
This was 0.0175 up from the low and 0.015 off the high.
December Canadian Dollar closed up 0.81 at 83.76.
This was 0.72 up from the low and 0.24 off the high.
December British Pound finished up 0.46 at
185.34, 0.51 off the high and 0.29 up from the low.
December Swiss closed up 0.5 at 86.12. This was
0.1 up from the low and 0.32 off the high.
December Japanese Yen closed up 0.91 at 97.13.
This was 0.52 up from the low and 0.34 off the high.
The Dollar started out weak and extended the
weakness to new contract lows against a number of currencies. The fact that the
US Federal Reserve acknowledged the currency crisis really fosters more anxiety.
Greenspan did suggest that there were only minor signs of foreigners rejecting
US debt and that some type of early warning sign would be seen if the situation
were beginning to worsen. With the weekend G20 meeting we have to wonder if some
significant volatility isn’t in order for Monday morning. Some suggested that
the Dollar market might bounce under the veiled threat of intervention but would
then quickly resume the slide.
Technical Outlook
YEN (DEC) 11/22/2004: A new contract high was
made on the rally. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which
will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. A positive signal for trend
short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The gap up on the
day session chart gave a bullish indicator and more follow through could be seen
this session. The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a
bullish indication. The near-term upside objective is at 97.94. The market is
becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of
resistance is around 97.55 and 97.94, while 1st support hits today at 96.70 and
below there at 96.23.
EURO (DEC) 11/22/2004: A new contract high was
made on the rally. A bearish signal was triggered on a crossover down in the
daily stochastics. Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is
bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside break especially if near-term
support is penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive
short-term indicator for trend. With the close higher than the pivot swing
number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next downside target is
129.66. The next area of resistance is around 130.45 and 130.85, while 1st
support hits today at 129.85 and below there at 129.66.
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PRECIOUS METALS RECAP
11/19/2004
December Gold closed up 4.1 at 447. This was 3 up
from the low and 1.5 off the high.
December Silver finished up 0.048 at 7.6, 0.05
off the high and 0.035 up from the low.
January Platinum closed down 3 at 859.7. This was
8.5 up from the low and 0.3 off the high.
The gold and silver markets leaped higher off the
initial slide in the Dollar and then gather momentum off the Greenspan comments.
We also think that sharply higher energy prices and sharp liquidation in the
stock market lifted prices. We also think that the threat of an international
currency crisis due to the sharp decline in the Dollar was given credence by all
the coverage Friday. In other words, the threat of a crisis was a casual fear
but now that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve suggested a critical could
unfold (even though it was unlikely) really serves to jack up in the interest in
the gold market.
Technical Outlook
SILVER (DEC) 11/22/2004: Studies are showing
positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is
warranted. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the
short-term trend remains positive. With the close higher than the pivot swing
number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside
objective is at 768.9. The next area of resistance is around 764.3 and 768.9,
while 1st support hits today at 755.8 and below there at 751.9.
GOLD (DEC) 11/22/2004: The market made a new
contract high on the rally. Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in
overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The market has a
bullish tilt coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing
resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 451.1. With a reading over 70,
the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is
around 449.2 and 451.1, while 1st support hits today at 444.8 and below there at
442.2.
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COPPER MARKET RECAP
11/19/2004
December Copper finished up 0.70 at 143.20, 0.10
off the high and 1.90 up from the low.
The copper market traded on both sides of
unchanged Friday morning but did manage to rise in the wake of the Gold and
silver recovery. Certainly the sharply lower US Dollar supported the US copper
market but that macro economic benefit could be easily offset by a resumption of
the rise in energy prices. We also think that copper prices were being supported
by a series of positive demand projections for zinc and nickel.
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ENERGY MARKET RECAP
11/19/2004
January Crude Oil closed up 2.51 at 48.89. This
was 2.14 up from the low and 0.06 off the high.
January Heating Oil closed up 5.30 at 149.20.
This was 5.30 up from the low and 0.60 off the high.
January Unleaded Gas finished up 6.69 at 131.90,
0.25 off the high and 6.10 up from the low.
January Natural Gas finished up 0.14 at 7.79,
0.13 off the high and 0.28 up from the low.
January Propane closed up 0.03 at 0.85. This was
0.01 up from the low and equal to the high.
The energy complex exploded off fears that seemed
to stem from the product area. The market seemed to rise off renewed concerns
for distillate stock tightness and that might have come off talk that OPEC was
poised to cut back production in an effort to head off significant price
declines. Venezuela indicated that they would go along with a preemptive
production cut in order to support prices and that was more than enough to
rekindle the bull case. Therefore, the market saw the recent looming threat of
rising supply mostly tempered and that sparked aggressive buying early in the
action Friday morning.
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (JAN) 11/22/2004: Daily stochastics are
showing positive momentum from oversold levels, which should reinforce a move
higher if near-term resistance is taken out. The market’s close above the 9-day
moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. There could be
more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing
resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 50.57. The next area of
resistance is around 49.99 and 50.57, while 1st support hits today at 47.79 and
below there at 46.17.
UNLEADED (JAN) 11/22/2004: Momentum studies are
rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number
is a bullish indication. The near-term upside objective is at 136.78. The next
area of resistance is around 135.07 and 136.78, while 1st support hits today at
128.73 and below there at 124.09.
HEATING OIL (JAN) 11/22/2004: The major trend
could be turning up with the close back above the 40-day moving average.
Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move
higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market’s short-term trend is
positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. A positive setup occurred
with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside objective is
153.92. The next area of resistance is around 152.15 and 153.92, while 1st
support hits today at 146.25 and below there at 142.13.
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CORN MARKET RECAP
11/19/2004
December Corn finished down 4 3/4 at 199
1/4, 4 1/2 off the high and 1/4 up from the low. March Corn closed down 4 3/4 at
210 1/4. This was 1/4 up from the low and 4 off the high.
December corn gave back all of the gains from the
previous 4 sessions to close 3/4 of a cent lower on the week. Funds were noted
sellers of near 10,000 contracts. Fears of bearish repercussions from mad cow
fall-out if tests confirm the disease on a US animal next week, China export
news and weakness in soybeans contributed to the sharp sell-off in corn into the
mid-session. Talk that China corn is more competitively priced in Asia as
compared with US corn due to high freight rates along with talk of corn piling
up outside of elevators due to a record harvest added to the bearish tone. While
Taiwan bought 35,000 tons of US corn overnight, China exports to Asian neighbors
could be a significant factor over the near-term. It costs about $1.70/bushel to
ship corn from New Orleans to Asia destinations. Slow producer selling, however,
has kept cash markets firm. March corn closed 1 cent lower on the week. March
corn support comes in at 209 1/4 and 208 with resistance at 213 and 214 1/4.
Technical Outlook
CORN (MAR) 11/22/2004: The close under the 40-day
moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. The upside
crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average is a positive signal. Momentum
studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher
if resistance levels are penetrated. The close below the 9-day moving average is
a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market is in a bearish position
with the close below the 2nd swing support number. The next upside target is 215
1/4. The next area of resistance is around 212 1/4 and 215 1/4, while 1st
support hits today at 208 1/4 and below there at 207.
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SOY COMPLEX RECAP
11/19/2004
January Soybeans finished down 4 1/2 at 550 1/2,
6 1/2 off the high and 5 1/2 up from the low. March Soybeans closed down 5 3/4
at 554. This was 5 up from the low and 7 off the high.
January Soymeal closed down 1.9 at 158.2. This
was 1.5 up from the low and 2.3 off the high.
January Soybean Oil finished up 0.05 at 21.49,
0.15 off the high and 0.33 up from the low.
Failure to move above yesterday’s highs along
with ideas that the market is overbought helped to trigger the early weakness.
Rust yield concerns and news that China bought 180,000 tons of soybeans from the
US helped support the market before long liquidation selling set-in shortly
after the opening. Asian rust has spread to Louisiana, Georgia and Florida and
traders are bracing for a quick spread of the disease into the Midwest next
spring. With the right wind, spores can spread from the gulf to Chicago in just
a few days. Midwest basis was steady to higher in some locations as crushers try
to source more soybeans. Ideas that there could be further restrictions on meat
and bone meal feeding if the USDA announces another mad cow in the US next week
helped to provide some support to meal. January Soybeans closed 25 1/2 cents
higher on the week; December Meal gained $8.50 and December Oil was up 55 points
on the week. Resistance for January soybeans comes in at 554 1/2 and 557 with
support at 542 and 536 1/4.
Technical Outlook
BEANS (JAN) 11/22/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day
moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market’s close
below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for
today. The near-term upside objective is at 562 3/4. The next area of resistance
is around 556 1/2 and 562 3/4, while 1st support hits today at 544 1/2 and below
there at 538 3/4.
MEAL (JAN) 11/22/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day
moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly
negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The
next upside target is 163.9. The next area of resistance is around 162.0 and
163.9, while 1st support hits today at 158.4 and below there at 156.6.
BEANOIL (DEC) 11/22/2004: The upside crossover (9
above 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term uptrend.
Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. A
positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving
average. The daily closing price reversal up on the daily chart is somewhat
positive. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a
slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside target is at 21.92. The next area
of resistance is around 21.73 and 21.92, while 1st support hits today at 21.25
and below there at 20.97.
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WHEAT MARKET RECAP
11/19/2004
December Wheat finished down 6 1/2 at 309 3/4, 5 1/4 off the
high and 1 1/4 up from the low. March Wheat closed down 7 at 319 3/4. This was
1/2 up from the low and 5 1/4 off the high.
A lack of new news regarding exports or tenders
to Iraq or Pakistan combined with talk of the overbought condition contributed
to the sharp sell-off from yesterday’s highs. March wheat fell as much as 12 1/4
cents off of Thursday’s peak before finding support. Follow-through technical
selling after the hook reversal yesterday added to the bearish price action in
the morning session and weakness in the other grains and other commodities added
to the bearish tone. Cumulative export sales have reached 66.8% of the USDA
forecast for the season as compared with 55.3% on average for this time of the
year. However, traders still view the recent sales as routine and with a good
start to the northern hemisphere winter wheat crops; the market seems to lack
much commercial support. In addition, there seems to be a pick-up in demand from
US millers who need higher quality wheat. March wheat closed 6 3/4 cents higher
on the week. March wheat support comes in at 319 3/4 and 317 with resistance at
324 1/2 and 327.
Technical Outlook
WHEAT (MAR) 11/22/2004: The major trend has
turned down with the cross over back below the 40-day moving average. Positive
momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action.
The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend
remains positive. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish with more
selling pressure possible today. There could be some early pressure today given
the market’s negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next
upside target is 326 1/2. The next area of resistance is around 322 1/2 and 326
1/2, while 1st support hits today at 317 and below there at 315 1/4.
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LIVE CATTLE RECAP
11/19/2004
December Live Cattle closed up 0.17 at 84.80.
This was 0.60 up from the low and 0.55 off the high.
January Feeder Cattle finished down 0.07 at
100.62, 0.67 off the high and 0.77 up from the low.
February cattle closed 10 higher on the session
but down 160 points for the week. Fears that an animal in the US will have a
positive final test for mad cow next week failed to keep the market down after a
lower opening. Sloppy feedlot conditions and another storm in the forecast for
the weekend has hurt cattle performance and could support the cash market next
week “if” the mad cow test is negative. Boxed-beef prices were down $.07 to
$139.27 at mid-session as compared with $134.06 one week ago. The Cattle-on-Feed
report, released after the close, was considered neutral with November 1st
On-Feed supply pegged at 103% of last year as compared with trade estimates near
102.3% (range 101-103). October placements were 97% as compared with the average
estimates at 95.8% (range 89-101) and October marketings came in at 97% as
compared with the average trade estimate of 95.5% (92-98). Large placements
offset the higher than expected marketings.
Technical Outlook
CATTLE (DEC) 11/22/2004: Momentum studies are
rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains
below the 9-day moving average. The daily closing price reversal up is a
positive indicator that could support higher prices. It is a slightly negative
indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next upside target is
85.920. The next area of resistance is around 85.350 and 85.920, while 1st
support hits today at 84.220 and below there at 83.650.
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LEAN HOGS RECAP
11/19/2004
December Lean Hogs closed up 0.42 at 74.82. This
was 0.72 up from the low and 0.40 off the high.
February Pork Bellies finished down 0.72 at
99.00, 0.45 off the high and 0.75 up from the low.
February hogs closed 22 higher on the session but
35 points lower on the week. The weekly closing price reversal from a contract
high helps confirmed the daily reversal on November 16th and suggests a major
top may be in place. Slaughter for the week came in at 2.114 million head as
compared with 2.004 million last week and 2.162 million head last year at this
time. The CME 2-Day Lean Index for the period ending November 17th was reported
at 77.88, up $.83 from the previous session and up from 75.18 the previous week.
A holiday next week is expected to reduce packer demand and could ease cash
markets. The sharp rise in the open interest and concerns that the sharp run-up
in pork production this week could pressure the pork product market next week.
For the Monthly Cold Storage report, released after the close, belly stocks were
reported at 16.066 million pounds as compared with trade expectations at
16.3-18.8 million pounds and 21.1 million pounds last year. The report is
supportive for the opening Monday.
Technical Outlook
HOGS (DEC) 11/22/2004: Daily stochastics turning
lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside
break especially if near-term support is penetrated. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The market has a
slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next downside
objective is 73.620. The next area of resistance is around 75.370 and 75.850,
while 1st support hits today at 74.270 and below there at 73.620.
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COCOA MARKET RECAP
11/19/2004
December Cocoa finished down 9 at 1602, 23 off
the high and 12 up from the low.
The cocoa market remained weak despite news that
a “hard-line†military commander supposedly took control of the Ivory Coast
army. Maybe the market took the commanders comments about establishing dialogue
and reuniting the North as a Peace offering. However, origin selling continues
and we have to think that cocoa is rushing toward the market rather than be
caught inside in the event of a civil war. Therefore until supply is halted it
flows and that might keep pressure on prices.
Technical Outlook
COCOA (DEC) 11/22/2004: Momentum studies trending
lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken
out. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar
moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the
swing pivot. The next downside target is now at 1570. The next area of
resistance is around 1619 and 1639, while 1st support hits today at 1585 and
below there at 1570.
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COFFEE MARKET RECAP
11/19/2004
December Coffee closed down 1.65 at 87.25. This
was 0.85 up from the low and 2.25 off the high.
Fund profit taking pressured March futures
Friday, but prices still remain within Wednesday’s wide trading band. Reuters is
reporting that German grocery chains are deeply discounting coffee to attract
customers which has German roasters reportedly trying to hold off purchases
hoping for cheaper physical coffee prices as the retail price war makes it
difficult to pass along the recent rise in coffee prices to the consumer. Brazil
government officials continue to warn against tightening supplies for the
2005/06 crop with an official crop estimated expected to be released the first
week in December. Satellite technology will apparently allow the government to
determine the crop area with less than a 5% error margin. The government is
considering raising the National Coffee Development Fund’s budget next year
which would enable farmers to keep more coffee off the world market. Support for
March coffee comes in at 86.00 then 85.75 with 100.60 as next upside objective.
Technical Outlook
COFFEE (DEC) 11/22/2004: Momentum studies
trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are
broken. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day
moving average. The market’s close below the 1st swing support number suggests a
moderately negative setup for today. The next downside target is now at 84.50.
The next area of resistance is around 88.75 and 90.65, while 1st support hits
today at 85.70 and below there at 84.50.
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SUGAR MARKET RECAP
11/19/2004
March Sugar closed down 0.03 at 8.75. This was
0.01 up from the low and 0.10 off the high.
March sugar closed 3 lower on the session but 23
points higher on the week. Futures gapped higher due to solid gains in London
but the market could not hold the gains with light long liquidation selling
helping to push futures lower on the session with a close near the lows of the
day. Firm ethanol values have provided solid support to the cash market in
Brazil on breaks and the surge in energy markets helped to provide support to
sugar relative to other commodity markets which took a sharp tumble on the day.
A lack of new fundamental news helped the market trade both side of unchanged.
The market seems to lack the cash news to see an extended upside move but
futures are also finding solid support from trade houses on breaks. The
Commitment-of-Traders report for the weekend is expected to show an overbought
condition which might have added to the long liquidation tendency into the
close.
Technical Outlook
SUGAR (MAR) 11/22/2004: Stochastics are at
mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The market’s close above the 9-day moving
average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market could take on
a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down. It is a slightly
negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The near-term
upside objective is at 8.88. The next area of resistance is around 8.80 and
8.88, while 1st support hits today at 8.70 and below there at 8.67.
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COTTON MARKET RECAP
11/19/2004
December Cotton finished down 0.67 at 47.83, 1.02
off the high and 2.33 up from the low.
March Cotton closed 3 lower on the session but
managed to gain 43 points on the week. After opening higher on the session to
challenge the October highs for the December contract, the market collapsed to
close 67 lower on the session. Weakness in the other commodity markets, the
collapse in the December futures, hopes for better harvest weather for next week
and slow shipments are all factors which helped pressure the market. The sharp
drop in open interest for the week indicates that the foundation of the rally is
short-covering which is not a good sign for a longer-term recovery to the
upside.
Technical Outlook
COTTON (DEC) 11/22/2004: Daily stochastics have
risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term
indicator for trend. The daily closing price reversal down puts the market on
the defensive. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the
1st swing support. The next upside objective is 50.85. The next area of
resistance is around 49.50 and 50.85, while 1st support hits today at 46.16 and
below there at 44.16.