Here Are 2 Levels I’m Watching Today
Nothing has changed.
The Dow/NYSE-types continue to do well while the Nasdaq lags. Here are some
notes.
The dollar:
Please review
what I told you would happen. The dollar bottomed the day a WSJ
reporter wrote a report “How to Play the Falling Dollar”
AFTER the move down. Technical analysis works with not only
stocks…but also with commodities.
The Semis: I
believe the Semis are on the goal line and need to hold these levels…BADLY.
The 493 level is vital for the SOX.
If we have more to go for this bull move, the
SOX will hold near these levels and just make these the bottom of another
base. Intel‘s
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INTC |
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update should provide the catalyst one way or another…I think. I did
want to say that many charts in SEMI-LAND have now rolled over. Even if we do
bounce off this level, I am not so sure we get another major leg up.
Coinciding with the Semis, the
Nasdaq support now lies at
1991. A break
below that not only violates support but violates the recent strong breakout
of this level.
As of this second, the Nasdaq has made 2 lower
highs. A third would make what has been a normal correction into something
more intermediate-term.
Volume patterns on the market remain suspect…at
best. If the low volume rallies/high volume drops continue, expect lower
prices. It is as simple as that. I would equate it to a see-saw. The more
weight you put on one side, the easier it is for that side to go down.
Heavy-volume down days are an anchor on this market. Do not underestimate
this.
Micro-caps are going bonkers. Take a look at
charts of
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MAMA |
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UFAB |
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(
CLWT |
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EWEB |
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EURO |
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PowerRating). I
have news for you. This type of action does not happen at bottoms. Speculators
are now heading for the lowest common denominator. You should also see all the
buying in 1 cent stocks going on.
I am playing things much more cautious and closer
to the vest. We have added shorts to our positions for the first time in
months. I will let the market decide its next move. So far, I do not like the
underlying action.
Gary Kaltbaum