Here Are Some Myth-Defeating Principles
It’s Monday, which of course
typically means “Soapbox Time”, but let’s first peek at the intraday
markets. Both major markets are
holding Friday’s key hourly uptrends, with our favorite 15MA handle bases
providing strong guidance for the morning extensions from the hourly, and
subsequently 13-minute and lesser timeframes. In fact, at one point we had
simultaneous cups on our 1, 3, 13, and 60 minute charts. 940 is providing
some interim ES resistance as we go to press, yet all key intraday and interday
trends (short of monthly) remain up as our eyes begin to scan the horizon for
potential emerging divergences.
Given the morning extensions, I’ll remain bullish so long as we hold the
13-minute uptrends. Potential afternoon opportunities may include our
course “oversold-on-support” scalp setups should price hold as
momentum retraces, 13 vs. 60 minute ping pong scalps should we lose the 13,
and/or one reversal should the rubber band get stretched a bit to the north.
Ramblings
Later this month, it will have been two
years ago to the day that I accepted Larry Connor’s request to begin a daily
TradingMarkets column on trading education after initially respectfully
declining his request. As I’ve indicated in the past, one of the main
reasons I decided to move ahead was because I thought I could use such a
“bully pulpit” effectively to vent some of my frustrations with this
business that all too often reflects a smoke-and-mirrors effort led by
individuals and entities with vested interests. To those who may be new to
this trek, I thought I’d spend some time today recapping how I found myself in
this place, starting with a few myth-defeating principles.
Complex systems? You don’t need them. A hammer will still drive a
nail … it always has and always will. Looking for that “right”
method? It doesn’t exist. Banking your success on a method or
individual rather than the development of a difficult skill that the vast
majority can’t master? Might as well mail a check to charity.Â
Chatroom callers? You don’t need them (hell, most don’t even trade).Â
Hindsight analysis? Ridiculous. Believe that strong traders don’t go
through slumps? Think again. Want to use the market to satisfy your
ego a trader, chatroom participant, or yes, even a columnist? Grow up.Â
Think learning to trade is any easier or different than becoming a professional
golfer? Take up knitting, it’s less expensive. Want to try altering
your style because you’re bored with a consistently dull trading approach?Â
Consider painting your office wall a different color instead.
OK, you get the point. Admittedly a bit curt, yet most know I don’t
believe in calling a spade anything other than it really is. Most of the
press and pundits want you to believe the exact opposite.
I continue to ask myself why most folks refuse to discuss these topics and
truths. I began this trek in part because it seemed that the rampant 1990s
hype placed everyone in a state of permanent trading hypnosis, even after many
pied pipers in the form of analysts, self-professed gurus, and pick-selling
merchants led unsuspecting folks to their destruction time and time again. Yet
after two years, I still don’t see enough of these truisms discussed and
admittedly continue to scratch my head in wonder.
I continue to enjoy the ongoing dialogue between us. I view this process
as an open chat of sorts where I try to share a few tidbits that reflect my deep
beliefs based on personal successes and screw-ups. In the process, I’ve
probably written a few columns that have stunk it up, and knowingly have a small
group of detractors amidst the thousands of emails I’ve received, comprised
mainly of those selling complex picks or those who want you to rely on anyone
other than yourself for success.
I’ve been approached several times over the years to offer instruction in the
form of videos, simulations, and live sessions. On those few occasions
when I thought I might be able to do some good, I accepted the challenge in the
spirit of trying to develop self-sufficient traders and attempting to counter
the deafening “gotta have it” or “rely on me” industry
marketing mantra. Certainly quality education is needed and there in my
view continues to be a huge void of it throughout the industry. Yet it
must be done in the right way and for the right reasons.
Case of the pot calling the kettle black as we get ready for next week’s
seminar? If so, then I’ve failed miserably and will let student feedback
and a Higher Power to which we all ultimately report be the judge … as they’re
the only ones that matter. Recently, one prospective mentor student was
shocked that I turned him down (I’ve personally turned down more prospects than
I’ve accepted, reflecting those cases in which I didn’t believe prospects were
approaching trading for the right reason.)Â Yet I take the teaching side of
this business more seriously than most will ever know. And ultimately,
self-reliance and self-discipline is the only effective long-term
combination, and nobody can offer that.
On the trading front, I’ve had some incredible trading successes over the years,
as well as times of paying my share of trading tuition, sometimes more than I
would like and at the least-suspecting times. (Of course, it’s the net
success/tuition ratio over time that matters.)Â With respect to the latter
issue about which I’ve spoken numerous times publicly, my first few months as a
trader following my decision to leave my corporate executive position — even
with an extended trading track record — was a disaster. Equity
decimalization all but destroyed my trading before some necessary reinvention
which ultimately led me to the indices. Almost losing my spouse in an
emergency operation and learning that my young daughter had a permanent medical
situation had an interim debilitating effect on my trading focus. Taking
on too many business demands at one time literally put me in the hospital.Â
And yes, putting out a midday column for two years has undoubtedly cost me more
than a few late morning opportunities
Yet if my daily ramblings
have helped just one person in the process, whether it be in becoming a better
trader or perhaps simply seeing a bit clearer through the foggy hype in a
dog-eat-dog business, it will ALL have been worth it.
I often wonder why this column and related
educational services became so popular. I’m hopeful that it’s because it
truly has been an open trader-to-trader dialogue. My hands get dirty
digging though the grime of the trading engines, I try hard not to mince words,
and attempt to balance any personal success mentions with discussions of draws,
entry challenges (vs. after the fact, “well it looks so obvious”
malarkey), and athletic-like periods of less-than-peak performance.Â
Anything less and I’d by default become yet another member of the
“non-trading” or “I told you so” columnist fraternity.
As those attending next
week’s seminar will see, trading is about perseverance
and far from the pristine, clean-cut business that myths attempt to promulgate. It’s a battle against self and self alone, reflecting perhaps one of the
greatest psychological battles one can ever pursue. For where else must
one effectively and simultaneously tackle internal demons related to money,
greed, patience, ego, and faith?
A few have asked me why I do this. If you have to ask, you simply don’t
know me. My best mentors in trading and life have been through
individuals who have openly shared their stumbles and who have taught because
they wanted to teach. For if it weren’t for them, I’d be flipping burgers
somewhere with no belief in myself or God. Instead, I’ve been blessed with
a strong faith, family, and multiple successful careers. Many of the
world’s greatest achievers only accomplished what they did because they were
able to overcome challenges that would have easily frustrated, if not destroyed
most men and women. As I’ve said before, embrace your setbacks and
critics, for they will strengthen you more than you will know.
I am greatly honored to be a part of many of your daily lives.
At this end, doing the column continues to sharpen my appreciation for traders,
columnists, and those rare few who dare to balance both. To the thousands
(literally) of positive emails I’ve received over the years, I appreciate your
taking the time to offer some feedback and glad I’ve been able to help. To
my few detractors, I embrace you because every one of your words have
strengthened my humility, open-mindedness, and perseverance, while helping to
remind me that we are all in this business and on this planet together.
ES (S&P) Monday
May 12, 2003 11:30 AM ET
NQ
(Nasdaq)
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