Here are the Forex trading patterns for March
March is not one of the months that shows obvious unidirectional trading in
any one currency pair, like AUD/JPY rising in January for eight straight years
now. Even so, there are still some interesting patterns of behavior in the
forex market that are worth noting.
The currency pair which has shown the strongest directional tendency in March
since the launch of the Euro in 1999 has been USD/CAD, which has been down 6 of
the last 7 years. This is not something to get overly excited about,
though. The average monthly move during that span is only about 50 pips,
which is less than 0.50%. All in all, March has been a mixed month for the
majors. The USD has risen against the AUD and EUR in five of seven years,
picking up better than 1% on average, but fell against the JPY at the same rate,
though only by about 35 pips.
Things are a bit more interesting in the cross rates. The EUR has not
fared well in March, falling six out of seven years against both the CAD and GBP,
and by decent amounts. In fact, EUR/CAD has lost an average of 290 pips in
March, which is better than 1.80%. The AUD too tends not to fair well in
the third month of the year. AUD/CAD and AUD/JPY have both fallen 5 of 7
years at an average rate of about 1.50%. Interestingly, EUR/JPY, which has
been split in terms of up and down years in March (3 up, 4 down) has
nevertheless been strongly biased to the downside, falling on average more than
200 pips.
The interesting weekdays to watch in March are as follows:
- AUD/USD on Wednesday – falls about 68% of the time, averaging 25 pips
- USD/CHF on Friday – rises about 61% of the time, averaging 26 pips
- EUR/CAD on Friday – falls about 61% of the time, averaging 32 pips
- EUR/JPY on Wednesday – falls about.66% of the time, averaging 27 pips
- GBP/AUD on Wednesday – rises about 66% of the time, averaging 98 pips
- GBP/CHF on Tuesday – rises about 65% of the time, averaging 34 pips
Keep in mind, the information presented here is just statistical observation.
While it does show patterns of price behavior, there is nothing to say that this
year has to or will follow the pattern. This data should not be used as a
sole means for determining a trading strategy, and as always, focused risk
management is strongly advised.
Note: The statistical information provided in this article is
presented in
Opportunities in Forex Calendar Trading Patterns.
John Forman is a near 20-year veteran of trading and investing across a
wide array of markets and instruments. He is author of
The Essentials of Trading
(Wiley). His analysis and market comments have been found in the financial news media across the world and he has published dozens of
magazine articles on trading methodology and analytic technique. To learn more about John’s research and trading activities, visit the
Anduril Analytics website.