Here are this month’s forex trading patterns
With the start of a new month, it’s time once more to look at the trading
patterns that have taken place in the past with an eye toward being able to use
them in our trading now. For this month there are few real strong patterns
which jump out. In terms of the majors, AUD/USD and GBP/USD have both
fallen five of the last seven year (since the introduction of the Euro in 1999)
during the month of May, but the moves have not been really worth note.
The story is a little more interesting in the crosses. GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF
both have had strong downside biases during May over the last seven years.
On average, these pairs have dropped in excess of 300 pips each year, which
translates to more than 1.25%. AUD/CAD has also been a loser most of the
time in May (6 of 7 years). The drop has only been 72 pips on average,
though.
There are also some specific days of the week which have demonstrated
tendencies worth keeping in mind:
- AUD/USD has fallen 64% of the time for an average of 16 pips on Mondays
in May - AUD/CAD has fallen 75% of the time for an average of 24 pips on Mondays
- EUR/AUD has fallen 68% of the time for an average of 33 pips on Tuesdays
- EUR/CAD has fallen 71% of the time for an average of 22 pips on
Thursdays - EUR/CHF has risen 70% of the time for an average of 13 pips on Fridays
- EUR/GBP has risen 63% of the time for an average of 15 pips on Fridays
- EUR/JPY has risen 63% of the time for an average of 32 pips on
Fridays - GBP/AUD has fallen 65% of the time for an average of 45 pips on
Tuesdays
Of course the figures presented herein are simple observations based on the
last seven years worth of data. Just because a pair has demonstrated a tendency
to act on this way or that does not guarantee that it will do so again this time
around. This information is probably best used to help one bias her/his
trading, not necessarily as an outright trade decision tool. As always, sound
risk management is strongly recommended.
Note: The statistical information provided in
this article is presented in
Opportunities in Forex Calendar Trading Patterns.
John Forman is the author of Amazon Top Seller “The Essentials of Trading”
and a near 20-year veteran of trading and investing across a wide array of
markets and instruments. His analysis and market comments have been found in the
financial news media across the world and he has published dozens of magazine
articles on trading methodology and analytic techniques. To learn more about
John’s research and trading activities, visit the
Anduril Analytics
website.