Here’s How To ‘Turn The Page’
Both major markets finished this
week in the green, with ES extending 12
and NQ tacking on 33 after having worked off recent excess momentum as we’ve
discussed in past weeks. While the longer-term market continues to play
ping-pong between holding supports while working off periods of unsustainable
momentum, intraday trade pace and oscillations have remained strong as the Fall
trading season reaches full stride.
Friday’s pre-holiday weekend trade was certainly light and most of us closed
shop by midday, yet Thursday provided one of the better paces in light of both
the employment-induced morning bungee stretch and subsequent midday cliff drop,
both of which were nicely aided by the intraday 13 minute trend.
Let’s go to the charts and then “turn the page”. Please note that I’ve inserted
a 120-minute chart below to reflect a timeframe that is currently “in play” a
bit more than the hourly, especially in light of Friday’s light trade and
consolidation. As I’ve said in recent columns (see archives), finding which
trend is in play can increase both one’s perspective and trading opportunities.
S&P 500
Nasdaq 100
Moving Avg Legend:
15MA Larger
Timeframe 15MA
See https://www.donmillertrading.com
for Setups and Methodologies
Charts © 2003 Tradestation
Turning the Page
Recently, I recall listening to either a
radio or TV sports segment where the baseball season was described as a “turn
the page” effort. Essentially, the concept reflects the strong psychological
requirement for teams toiling through 162 games that each game — and certainly
any event within a single game — stands alone, and that a single game — while
key in terms of aggregate season results reflecting the sum of micro-events —
can and should have no influence on the next game. Such is also the case during
the trading season.
Now before I continue, I agree as a trader that “turning the page” trade after
trade and day after day is much easier said than done. I also am well aware —
having been in both ends of the “zone” that the momentum generated from recent
micro-events in our trading brains will often have a tremendous influence on our
short-term performance and results — good or bad (see A’s, Oakland).
Of course, unlike baseball, the trading “season” is longer. In fact, until we
make our very last trade — hopefully by choice — the season never ends.
And while a weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual trading scorecard is helpful,
as are necessary breaks to refresh, such periods are merely self-imposed
intervals which we can and should define in any way we choose. An example that
comes to mind is a particular decision I made one year when I was out of rhythm
with the markets to immediately change my mental and side-record (non-tax)
fiscal year to begin anew while in the middle of the month and the middle of the
year. Simply put, I changed my reports, records, logs … everything.
Anything we can do to create that “turn the page” effect, no matter how small or
silly to those outside our trading office, is a plus. Yet in this ultimate
entrepreneurial experience, I often have to remind myself that this is a
business where we create our own rules and guidelines based on our own
personalities, deficiencies, and strengths, so why not start a new year
mid-month? The alternative would be to mentally accept one’s current
performance “funk”, which would have the result of subconsciously rejecting any
opportunity for change until the next month, year, or whatever self-imposed
interval you’ve historically created.
And while the ideal objective is to create mental closure without resorting to
such tactics, sometimes a little help is necessary to rewire the brain.
On a related note, I’ve found over the years that balancing the micro- and macro
elements is among the most difficult aspects of this business. Focusing on a
one- or three-minute chart without regard to the hourly picture or treating each
day as if one “must” be profitable in fear of Armageddon occurring at 4:00 are
both examples of traps into which we can fall. With respect to the latter, I’ve
found having a spreadsheet that I can glance at throughout the trading day that
has 250 daily cells denoting the approximate number of trading days in a year is
extremely helpful as a reminder that if profits aren’t meant to occur today,
they’ll simply occur in one of the other 249 cells. It may sound silly, yet it’s
a great perspective reminder and often helps calm the trigger finger.
Good Trading and Have a
Great Weekend.