Here’s The Support For Gold

Technical Outlook

BONDS (DEC) 11/17/03: With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. Near-term resistance for bonds is at 111.01 and then again at 111.12, while swing support hits at 109.24 and below there at 108.26. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Studies are showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The next upside target is 111.12.

T-NOTES(DEC) Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at 114.00. The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The major trend is down with the cross over back below the 40-day moving average. Near-term resistance for the T-Notes is at 113.23 and then again at 114.00, while swing support hits at 112.26 and below there at 112.05. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.

STOCK INDICES RECAP

11/14/2003

Despite a generally negative economic report slate Friday, the Dec S&P continued to trade sideways despite indication of weak retail sales and rising inflationary pressures. We would of thought with the PPI up .8% last month, energy prices raging higher and the Fed’s unconcern with low rates would have spooked the market on inflation concerns. While stocks can not make any headway up, they are also basically holding their ground. However, with out a catalyst to take prices through 1064, we would think Dec S&P could drift lower next week.

Technical Outlook

S&P500 (DEC) 11/17/03: The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. The outside day down is a negative signal. The daily closing price reversal down puts the market on the defensive. Underlying support comes in at 1040.90 and 1036.10, with overhead resistance at 1056.90 and 1068.10. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The daily stochastic’s gave a bearish indicator with a crossover down. Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The next downside objective is now at 1036.10.

S&P E-Mini (DEC): The key reversal down puts the market on the defensive. The outside day down is somewhat negative. The market made a new contract high on the rally. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down. A bearish signal was triggered on a crossover down in the daily stochastics. Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels are broken. The next downside objective is 1035.06. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. Near-term resistance for the S&P Mini is at 1057.63 and then again at 1069.56, while swing support hits at 1040.38 and below there at 1035.06. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average.

NASDAQ (DEC) The outside day down and close below the previous day’s low is a negative signal. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The market should run into resistance at 1432.00 and above there at 1462.00 with support at 1389.00 and 1376.00. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The next downside target is 1376.0.

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

11/14/2003

The economic reports Friday did little to ease the bearish sentiment against the Dollar. Trading was slow and the December contract did manage to hold above the Oct lows, but the chart pattern remains bearish, despite being aggressively over sold. Several Fed members reiterated that the Fed will keep interest rates low for the next several months and that inflation is not an issue, even though Oct PPI spiked up +.8%.

Technical Outlook

YEN (DEC): The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. Swing resistance is targeted at 92.64 and above there at 92.85, with the yen finding support around 92.22 and below there at 92.01. Studies are showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The next upside target is 92.85.

EURO (DEC): Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at 1.1828. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. Swing support for the Euro comes in at 1.1690, with overhead resistance at 1.1828. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish with more selling pressure possible today.

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

11/14/2003

While Feb gold push through psychological resistance at $400, prices failed to close above this level, but the market remains on a solid upward track. The bullish outlook for gold was enhanced Friday by a weak retail sales number and hot PPI combined with sharply higher energy prices which will keep investors worried about inflation. In fact, the +.8% gain in the PPI was mostly due to a 8.8% rise in foodstuffs! Feb gold should easily meet our near-term objective at $415.

Technical Outlook

SILVER (DEC): Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the session. Initial support for silver is at 535.0 and below there at 526.0 with resistance likely at 540.3 and 548.0. The moving average crossover up (9 above 18) indicates a possible developing short-term uptrend. Studies are showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The next upside target is 540.3. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. A new contract high was made on the rally.

GOLD (DEC): Support for gold today comes in near 392.45, while resistance is pegged at 402.45. Momentum studies are trending higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at 402.45. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The upside crossover (9 above 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term uptrend. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The rally brought the market to a new contract high.

COPPER MARKET RECAP

11/14/2003

March copper continued to trade sideways as the market looks to be consolidating recent gains before making another run at the highs. Global supplies remain tight and demand from China strong which keeps the market well underpinned. The market held up well despite indications of weak car sales last month. A weak dollar also helped to support copper prices.

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

11/14/2003

Energy markets saw another huge move to the upside as a fragile supply situation, escalating tensions in the Middle East and some refinery problems drove funds to add to long positions. Jan unleaded gas made new contract highs supported by news that Colonial Pipeline Co. had to reduce flow rates of distillates and gasoline into the New York Harbor. Cold temps this weekend was also supporting heating oil and the strength in the rest of the complex sparked a massive short covering by the funds in the natural gas market as the January contract blew through several key resistance points. The outlook for the complex remains decidedly bullish.

Technical Outlook

CRUDE OIL (JAN): It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. Support for crude is keyed on 31.53 and below there at 31.24, with resistance pegged at 32.03 and 32.24. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies are trending higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at 32.24. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels.

UNLEADED GAS (JAN): Studies are showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The next upside target is 90.39. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. Resistance today is at 90.39, while support should be found around 86.19. A new contract high was made on the rally. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels.

HEATING OIL (JAN): With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. Heating oil should encounter support around 86.77, with resistance is at 90.07. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies are trending higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at 90.07. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The gap up on the day session chart gave a bullish indicator and more follow through could be seen this session.

CORN MARKET RECAP

11/14/2003

March corn closed 1/2 cent lower on the session but 5 cents higher on the week. The market attempted to absorb the news of the week with a quiet low volume trade and a tight range. In addition to the weekly sales news, the USDA reported daily sales of 139,585 tonnes of US corn to unknown destination and 194,000 tonnes of US sorghum to unknown destination. Weekly sorghum sales hit a marketing year high at 447,900 tonnes. Weekly export sales came in at 748,200 tonnes as compared with 686,600 tonnes necessary each week to reach the USDA projection and trade expectations at 800,000-1.0 million tonnes. Cumulative sales have reached 38.4% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 33.5% on average for this time of the year. Cash basis levels were firm with quiet producer sales and there was still talk that China would eventually be an importer of US corn this season.

Technical Outlook

CORN (MAR) 11/17/03: Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The next downside objective is now at 244 . The market’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. Market resistance comes in at 249 today, with support at 244 . The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

11/14/2003

January soybeans closed 2 1/2 higher on the session and up 30 cents on the week supported by surging oil values and continued strong buying from China. November soybeans expired at 773, up 2 cents on the day in quiet trade. Rumors that China is still buying US soybeans and may also book US soyoil added to the bullish tone. China was a noted buyer of 406,000 tonnes in the weekly sales report. Weekly export sales came in at 917,400 tonnes as compared with 165,000 tonnes necessary each week to reach the USDA projection and trade expectations at 750,000-950,000 tonnes. Cumulative sales have reached 70.9% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 45.8% on average for this time of the year. So much for rationing demand. Meal was under pressure from weak sales news with cancellations of 131,500 tonnes as compared with 31,300 tonnes necessary each week to reach the USDA projection and trade expectations at 50,000-100,000 tonnes. Cumulative sales have reached 63.8% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 33.1% on average for this time of the year. The NOPA Monthly Crush report showed October soybeans crushed at 141.7 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 138-144 million bushels and 144.76 million crushed in October of 2002.

Technical Outlook

SOYBEANS (JAN) 11/17/03: With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next area of resistance is around 786 1/2 and 793 3/4, while 1st support hits today at 770 and below there at 760 3/4. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The next upside target is 793 3/4.

MEAL (MAR): Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The next downside objective is now at 234.4. First resistance comes in at 240.4, with support at 236.0. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The market’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup.

BEAN OIL (MAR): The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The next upside target is 27.25. Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the session. A new contract high was made on the rally. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. Daily swing resistance is found at 27.10 and above there at 27.25. Support should be encountered at 26.55 and 26.15. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels.

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

11/14/2003

March wheat closed 1 3/4 lower on the session but 26 cents higher on the week as the trade absorbed rumors of China buying all week and hopes that demand for US wheat will remain strong in spite of the recent surge higher of near 87 cents since the October 15th lows. On top of the weekly sales news, the USDA announced a daily sale of 325,000 tonnes of US wheat to unknown destination. The trade remains optimistic over US sales to China or Europe. In addition, Pakistan announced that the country will import 500,000 tonnes of wheat in the next 2-3 months. Weekly export sales came in at 537,400 tonnes as compared with 407,800 tonnes necessary each week to reach the USDA projection and trade expectations at 500,000-750,000 tonnes. Cumulative sales have reached 58.8% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 55.8% on average for this time of the year.

Technical Outlook

WHEAT (MAR) 11/17/03: It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. Look for near-term support at 413 and below there at 410 , with resistance levels at 419 and 421 1/2. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Studies are showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The next upside target is 421 1/2. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels.

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

11/14/2003

December cattle closed 72 lower on the session and down 272 on the week. After a sweeping reversal on Tuesday, the market closed lower for 4 sessions in a row. Fears that demand is shifting away from beef due to the steep retail price helped trigger another round of long liquidation selling and a move to limit-down but the market recovered due to the stiff discount to cash. Cash cattle
Packer bids were still at $95-$97 on Friday at mid-session with offers at $100-$102 and no trade on the week as compared with $105 last week. Operating margins are thought to be deep in the red and weakness in beef prices only added to the red ink. Boxed-beef cut-out values were down $.99 to $166.60 which added to the bearish tone for the week. Slaughter for the week was 601,000 head, unchanged from last week and down 8.2% from last year. Beef production was down 10.8% from last year.

Technical Outlook

CATTLE (DEC) 11/17/03: Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside target is 92.27. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. Support should be encountered at 93.12 and below there at 92.27. Market resistance is at 95.05 and then again at 96.12. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative.

LEAN HOGS RECAP

11/14/2003

December hogs closed 30 higher on the session but more than 300 lower on the week with the market trying to bounce off of psychological support at 50.00. Cash markets were steady and pork values were steady on Thursday night which brought some stability to the market after the washout from early in the week. The 2-day lean index came in down 24 cents to 50.38. Slaughter for the week was 2.104 million head which was down 2% from last week but still 3.7% over last years pace. Pork production was up 4.4% from last year and traders were expecting pork production to be running near unchanged to 2% under a year ago during mid-November.

Technical Outlook

HOGS (DEC) 11/17/03: It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. Resistance levels comes in at 50.77 and 51.20 today, while support is around 49.92 and then 49.50. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. Daily stochastics are trending lower, but have declined into oversold territory. The next downside objective is now at 49.50.

COCOA MARKET RECAP

11/14/2003

March cocoa extended its rally supported by a combination of fund short covering, talk of a lower Ivory Coast crop since arrivals are running behind last year and concern over Ivory Coast cocoa being smuggled to Ghana. On-going weakness in the Dollar and strength in the CRB Index is also supportive. The technical breakout above 1500 has set the stage for March to rebound to fill the gap at 1632 and possibly 1675.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (MAR)11/17/03 The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Cocoa should run into resistance at 1612 and above there at 1625 with support at 1571 and 1543. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. Studies are showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The next upside target is 1625.25.

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

11/14/2003

March coffee opened at a 10 session high on Friday only to close 80 lower on the session, 195 lower from the highs of the day and 90 lower on the week. This is a significant technical failure for the session and leaves the market vulnerable to more technical damage if the market moves under last weeks lows at 61.70. Heavy rains in Vietnam killed 33 people and slowed the harvest but there was no damage reported to coffee production. Wet weather for the weekend and for the coming week were seen as bearish for Brazil and a lack of interest from buyers on the move higher was seen as a sign that end users will be very reluctant to add to their coverage without cheaper pricing. On the other hand, Brazil supplies are tightening with producers handing over coffee to the government as part of the put options program.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (MAR)11/17/03 The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The next downside objective is now at 60.80.The Coffee contract should run into resistance at 63.40 and above there at 64.90 with support at 61.35 and 60.80. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average.

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

11/14/2003

The market closed 4 higher on the session and up 31 points on the week with March futures now testing the October highs. The gap higher to start the week last week and the weekly closing price reversal for the week ending November 7th have been the foundation of the technical rally and the fact that funds were net short over 35,000 contracts in early November was the “fuel” for the rally. The fundamental news continues to be slow with a lack of aggressive buying from the Middle East routine buyers and a lack of aggressive selling from Brazil. Stocks are high but Brazil sugar prices inched higher on the week and the surge in the CRB Index (7 1/2 year high) added to the positive tone for commodity markets.

Technical Outlook

SUGAR (MAR) 11/17/03: It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. Swing resistance comes in at 6.45, with support found at 6.29. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies are trending higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at 6.45. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels.

COTTON MARKET RECAP

11/14/2003

March Cotton closed 109 higher on the session but down 100 points on the week. While there is still no strong technical sign of a low, the market managed to hold key support at 76.20. Weekly export sales came in at 497,500 bales as compared with 141,300 bales necessary each week to reach the USDA projection and trade expectations at 300,000-600,000 bales. Cumulative sales have reached 54.8% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 61% on average for this time of the year. China was the largest buyer at 231,900 bales. Tightening world stocks and the weaker US dollar are supportive factors.

Technical Outlook

COTTON (MAR) 11/17/03: The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. Next resistance area comes in at 80.05 and then again at 80.60, while support is targeted at 78.05 and 76.60. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is 76.60.