Here’s What I’m Looking At On Friday

September 24, 2004
Chris Curran

Stock
index futures opened Thursday’s session with slight gaps up, but
quickly followed through on Wednesday’s slide.Â News at 10:00 that August
Leading Indicators were a bit weaker-than-expected was offset by news from the
White House that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve might be tapped due to the
resurgence of Hurricane Ivan.Â The bounce was short-lived and a choppy range
took over before a successful break of the lows couldn’t find any
follow-through.Â The “backing and filling” finally gave way to new lows in the
closing minutes.

The
December SP 500 futures closed out Thursdayâ€™s session with a loss of -5.75
points, while the Dow futures slid another +24 points.Â Open interest in the SPZ
increased on Wednesday, indicating some new shorts are dipping their toes in the
bullpen.Â Looking at the daily chart, the ES cracked its 100-day MA and looks
ready to test its 38% Fib retracement of the late Summer rally at 1104.50.Â The
YM is ready to test its 61.8% Fib retracement of its Summer rally, which
coincides with the magic 10,000 level.. In the small-caps, the ER2 continues to
show the best resilience, posting a narrow range defined by its 200-day MA
resistance and 20-day MA support.

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

December
bonds balked at the 8/10 FOMC Meeting minutes with regards to the tightening
cycle, despite nothing really new being said.Â
The Banking Index (BKX)
continues to its weekly and daily Gartley targets at 95.60.Â The SOX showed some
relative strength as it found support at its 10-day MA crossover of its 50-day
MA.

Friday morning gives us the
August Durable Orders report at 8:30 ET, with an estimate for a (0.3%)
decrease.Â Since it’s been since the first week of August since we’ve had 2
sharp down days in a row, and on the surface it doesn’t look that bad yet from a
technical standpoint, a lot more damage was probably done deeper today to the
bullish “mindset.”