Here’s What Provided The Gains In Bonds Today

Technical Outlook

BONDS (MAR) 01/03/2005: The market now above the
60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. Negative
momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action.
The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend
has turned up. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market
is in a moderately positive position. The next downside target is now at 111-16.
The next area of resistance is around 112-30 and 113-07, while 1st support hits
today at 112-03 and below there at 111-16.

TNOTES (MAR) 01/03/2005: The market now above the
40-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. Momentum
studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support
levels are taken out. The close below the 18-day moving average is an indication
the longer-term trend has turned down. The close over the pivot swing is a
somewhat positive setup. The next downside target is now at 111-170. The next
area of resistance is around 112-035 and 112-075, while 1st support hits today
at 111-245 and below there at 111-170.

 

STOCK INDICES RECAP

12/31/2004

March S&P finished down 3.5 at 1211.2, 8.5 off
the high and 0.2 up from the low.

March S&P E-Mini closed down 3.5 at 1211.25. This
was 0.5 up from the low and 8.5 off the high.

March Dow closed down 30 at 10768. This was 3 up
from the low and 72 off the high.

March Dow E-Mini finished down 26 at 10772, 66
off the high and 9 up from the low.

We are a little surprised at the rather narrow
range in the equity market considering that the recent trend was so finally
entrenched in the bull camp. On the other hand, it would not have been
surprising to see prices fall back sharply on year end profit taking especially
when one considers the news flow on Friday morning. In addition to the Dollar
starting out near a new downside breakout on the charts, Aloha Airlines filing
Chapter 11 and France reporting a significantly larger loss of jobs in a monthly
payroll report it is clear that the S&P mounted an overly aggressive rally in
the 4th quarter and that could have justified a profit taking slide. In the end,
the bull camp generally seemed to retain control over the market even though the
pre holiday trade was choppy and quiet.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 (MAR) 01/03/2005: The market rallied to a
new contract high. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a
bearish indication. Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which
should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The cross
over and close above the 18-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend
has turned up. The outside day down is a negative signal. The market setup is
somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The next downside
target is now at 1204.58. The next area of resistance is around 1215.55 and
1221.97, while 1st support hits today at 1206.85 and below there at 1204.58.

SP EMINI (MAR) 01/03/2005: A new contract high
was made on the rally. A crossover down in the daily stochastics is a bearish
signal. Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and
will tend to reinforce a downside break especially if near-term support is
penetrated. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average indicates
the longer-term trend has turned up. A negative signal was given by the outside
day down. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st
swing support. The next downside target is 1204.25. The next area of resistance
is around 1215.75 and 1222.25, while 1st support hits today at 1206.75 and below
there at 1204.25.

NASDAQ (MAR) 01/03/2005: The upside crossover of
the 9 & 18 bar moving average is a positive signal. Positive momentum studies in
the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The market now
above the 18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up.
The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing
support. The next upside target is 1640.75. The next area of resistance is
around 1629.50 and 1640.75, while 1st support hits today at 1614.50 and below
there at 1610.75.

MINIDOW (MAR) 01/03/2005: Momentum studies are
trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break
below the 1st swing support. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving
average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up. It is a slightly negative
indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside target is
now at 10712. The next area of resistance is around 10809 and 10861, while 1st
support hits today at 10735 and below there at 10712.

 

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

12/31/2004

March US Dollar finished up 40 at 8100, 20 off
the high and 52 up from the low.

March Euro finished down 1.01 at 135.58, 0.99 off
the high and 0.38 up from the low.

March Euro Dollar closed up 0.005 at 97.095. This
was 0.01 up from the low and 0.01 off the high.

March Canadian Dollar closed up 0.17 at 83.22.
This was 0.27 up from the low and 0.3 off the high.

March British Pound finished down 0.96 at 190.71,
1.76 off the high and 0.21 up from the low.

March Swiss closed down 0.8 at 87.96. This was
0.26 up from the low and 0.83 off the high.

March Japanese Yen closed up 0.45 at 97.97. This
was 0.42 up from the low and 0.28 off the high.

The Dollar was lucky to have avoided a sharp
break as the Pound and the Yen made early significant gains against the Dollar.
However, the Euro was weak against the Dollar and that probably saved the
Greenback from a significant slide. With France posting some very disappointing
payroll readings we can understand the weakness in the Euro as the market was
expecting a decline of only 5,000 jobs in France and the tally ended up being
19,000 jobs lost. Therefore, the macro economic numbers were significant enough
to prompt a year ending profit taking slide in the Euro and that helped the
Dollar to a surprise finish for 2004.

Technical Outlook

YEN (MAR) 01/03/2005: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The major trend could be
turning up with the close back above the 18-day moving average. The market setup
is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The
near-term upside target is at 98.63. The next area of resistance is around 98.32
and 98.63, while 1st support hits today at 97.62 and below there at 97.24.

EURO (MAR) 01/03/2005: Daily stochastics have
risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The major trend could be turning up with the close back above the 18-day
moving average. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the
close below the 1st support number. The next upside target is 137.10. The next
area of resistance is around 136.26 and 137.10, while 1st support hits today at
134.90 and below there at 134.37.

 

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

12/31/2004

Market closed for Holiday.

Technical Outlook

SILVER (MAR) 01/03/2005: Stochastics are at
mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The close below the 18-day moving average is an
indication the longer-term trend has turned down. It is a slightly negative
indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next upside
target is 692.5. The next area of resistance is around 688.0 and 692.5, while
1st support hits today at 679.5 and below there at 675.5.

GOLD (FEB) 01/03/2005: A positive indicator was
given with the upside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average. Momentum
studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher
if resistance levels are penetrated. The close below the 18-day moving average
is an indication the longer-term trend has turned down. With the close higher
than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The
next upside target is 442.9. The next area of resistance is around 440.9 and
442.9, while 1st support hits today at 435.9 and below there at 432.8.

 

COPPER MARKET RECAP

12/31/2004

Market closed for Holiday.

 

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

12/31/2004

Market closed for Holiday.

Technical Outlook

CRUDE OIL (FEB) 01/03/2005: Stochastics trending
lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support
levels are taken out. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests
the longer-term trend has turned up. The close over the pivot swing is a
somewhat positive setup. The next downside objective is now at 42.31. The next
area of resistance is around 43.93 and 44.24, while 1st support hits today at
42.97 and below there at 42.31.

UNLEADED (FEB) 01/03/2005: The crossover up in
the daily stochastics is a bullish signal. Stochastics are at mid-range but
trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are
taken out. The major trend has turned down with the cross over back below the
18-day moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the
market is in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside target is at
116.27. The next area of resistance is around 115.04 and 116.27, while 1st
support hits today at 111.54 and below there at 109.27.

HEATING OIL (FEB) 01/03/2005: Momentum studies
are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support
reversal action if it occurs. The close below the 18-day moving average is an
indication the longer-term trend has turned down. It is a slightly negative
indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective
is now at 122.45. The next area of resistance is around 126.63 and 127.94, while
1st support hits today at 123.89 and below there at 122.45.

 

CORN MARKET RECAP

12/31/2004