Here’s What Saved The Dollar Today

Technical Outlook

BONDS (DEC) 09/09/03: The downside closing price
reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. It is a slightly negative
indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. Near-term
resistance for bonds is at 106.26 and then again at 108.00, while swing support
hits at 105.05 and below there at 104.22. The market’s close above the 9-day
moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The close under
the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down.
Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher
price action. The next upside target is 108.00.

T-NOTES(DEC) The daily closing price reversal
down puts the market on the defensive. Momentum studies are trending higher from
mid-range which should support a move higher if resistance levels are
penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at 111.32. The market’s close
below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The major trend is down
with the cross over back below the 40-day moving average. Near-term resistance
for the T-Notes is at 111.03 and then again at 111.32, while swing support hits
at 109.29 and below there at 109.19. The upside crossover (9 above 18) of the
moving averages suggests a developing short-term uptrend.

 

STOCK INDICES RECAP

9/8/2003

Another new high for the year seemed to come
right in the face of international concern over the amount of deficit spending
to be undertaken in Iraq and Afghanistan. The stock market did get some very
favorable news from the KC Fed Manufacturing Index, which soared to 20 points
from the prior reading of 8 points. The stock market even shook off another
pipeline explosion in Iraq that disabled some production and sent crude oil
prices higher around mid session. In the end it is clear that the stock market
is feeding higher in the face of potentially damaging information. Apparently
some favorable analyst views toward IBM fueled the market throughout the
session.

Technical Outlook

S&P500 (SEP) 09/09/03: With the close over the
1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position.
Underlying support comes in at 1025.60 and 1019.75, with overhead resistance at
1035.00 and 1038.55. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above
the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies are trending higher, but have entered
overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at 1038.55. With a reading
over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels.

S&P E-Mini (SEP): Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The next upside objective is
1035.00. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot.
Near-term resistance for the S&P Mini is at 1028.25 and then again at 1035.00,
while swing support hits at 1016.25 and below there at 1011.00. A positive
signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average.
The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70.

NASDAQ (SEP) A new contract high was made on the rally. The
market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend
remains positive. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing
resistance. The market should run into resistance at 1399.75 and above there at
1406.13 with support at 1376.25 and 1359.13. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the
market is approaching overbought levels. Studies are showing positive momentum,
but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The next
upside target is 1406.1.

 

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

9/8/2003

In the action Monday the Dollar was saved by the
K.C. Fed numbers and a sharp rise in the US stock market. In the early trade the
Dollar was under significant pressure but managed to right the ship around mid
session. However, into the close, the longs seemed to abandon the Dollar but
really didn’t show much of a preference for any other specific currency. We have
to think that the outlook toward the US economy is supporting the Dollar but the
political penalty of the Iraqi situation is a major countervailing force. Seeing
the US make arrangements for at least another year of involvement is apparently
enough to undermine the Dollar.

Technical Outlook

YEN (DEC): The market’s close above the 9-day
moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. With the close
higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture.
Swing resistance is targeted at 86.30 and above there at 86.47, with the yen
finding support around 85.85 and below there at 85.57. Daily stochastics turning
lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside
break especially if near-term support is penetrated. The next downside target is
85.57.

EURO (DEC): Momentum studies are trending higher
from mid-range which should support a move higher if resistance levels are
penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at 1.1144. The market is in a
bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. Swing
support for the Euro comes in at 1.0978, with overhead resistance at 1.1144. The
market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.
The major trend is down with the cross over back below the 40-day moving
average. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish with more selling
pressure possible today.

 

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

9/8/2003

With the Dollar showing swings in both directions
early Monday the gold trade wasn’t sure how to act especially considering the
verification of the massive long position in the COT report. Apparently the
pipeline explosion in Iraq provided some anxiety, as did reports of another SARS
case in Singapore. However, the impact of another SARS incident, on the gold
market could go either way, especially if the world economy was thrown off the
recovery track by another outbreak as that could rekindle deflation. In other
words, extreme anxiety might benefit gold, but rampant deflation could hammer
gold.

Technical Outlook

SILVER (DEC): It is a slightly negative indicator
that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. Initial support for silver
is at 508.2 and below there at 505.9 with resistance likely at 511.4 and 513.2.
The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend
remains positive. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to
reinforce higher price action. The next upside target is 511.4.

GOLD (DEC): Support for gold today comes in near
373.13, while resistance is pegged at 379.33. Momentum studies are trending
higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at
379.33. The market’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative
setup. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day
moving average.

 

COPPER MARKET RECAP

9/8/2003

The copper market showed a profit taking posture
Monday despite a favorable Kansas City Fed manufacturing reading. The copper
market also has to be aware of the potential threat of SARS as the Press picked
up on a new exposure in Singapore. Copper prices were hammered back in February,
March and April because of the SARS threat in China. The pit attributed the
weakness Monday to profit taking and given the recent long positioning in the
COT report that is certainly a plausible cause of the weakness.

 

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

9/8/2003

The energy complex open unchanged and then
managed to gather some momentum as rumors of an Iraqi pipeline explosion
filtered into the market early in the session. In what could have been a
dampening element the UAE Oil Minister suggested that prior OPEC member
statements regarding an unchanged OPEC production decision in the next meeting
was premature. In fact, seeing crude rally only 50 cents off another Iraqi
production problem suggests that the trade is losing some of its upside power.
The focus will continue to be on the weekly inventory data with some tightening
needed or prices could quickly return to the lows seen last week.

Technical Outlook

CRUDE OIL (NOV): The upside closing price
reversal on the daily chart is somewhat bullish. It is a mildly bullish
indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. Support for crude
is keyed on 28.53 and below there at 28.18, with resistance pegged at 29.31 and
29.74. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the
9-day moving average. Daily stochastics are trending lower, but have declined
into oversold territory. The next downside objective is now at 28.18. With a
reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels.

UNLEADED GAS (NOV): Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is
79.20. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a
slightly bullish posture. Resistance today is at 83.30, while support should be
found around 79.20. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an
indication the short-term trend remains negative.

HEATING OIL (NOV): The market’s close below the
pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. Heating oil should encounter
support around 75.54, with resistance is at 79.34. The market’s short-term trend
is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. Daily
stochastics are trending lower, but have declined into oversold territory. The
next downside objective is now at 75.54. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI
is approaching oversold levels. The daily closing price reversal down puts the
market on the defensive.

 

CORN MARKET RECAP

9/8/2003

It appeared as if the funds were sellers in the
action Monday but its also possible that the small specs increased their net
short. Export inspections for corn came in at 18.702 million bushels versus 36.1
million last week. Also during the session the market saw a forecast for
Argentine 2002-2003 corn sales of 8.896 million metric tons, which is above the
same period last year. The market also saw private crop forecasts for the US
corn crop in excess of 10 billion bushels and that is negative. While heavy rain
in the days ahead might be seen as negative the trade thinks that the crop will
be largely unaffected by the rain.

Technical Outlook

CORN (DEC) 09/09/03: The daily stochastic’s gave
a bearish indicator with a crossover down. Momentum studies are trending lower
from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st
swing support. The next downside objective is now at 236 . The market’s close
below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for
today. Market resistance comes in at 246 today, with support at 236 . The
market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day
moving average. Daily studies pointing down suggests selling minor rallies.

 

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

9/8/2003

Soybeans showed moderate volatility with a firm
opening, a slight mid morning correction and then a recovery into the close. A
private firm forecast the USDA soybean production number to be 2.783 million,
which is bearish as that is only a minor reduction against the prior USDA
projection. Weekly export inspections for soybeans came in at 6.04 million tons
versus 3.65 million last week. The soybean market was also negatively impacted
by weak cash price action Monday.

Technical Outlook

SOYBEANS (NOV) 09/09/03: With the close higher
than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The
next area of resistance is around 594 and 597 3/4, while 1st support hits today
at 586 and below there at 581 3/4. The market’s close above the 9-day moving
average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Daily stochastics
turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a
downside break especially if near-term support is penetrated. The next downside
target is 581 3/4.

MEAL (DEC): Momentum studies trending lower at
mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The
next downside objective is now at 182.8. First resistance comes in at 186.4,
with support at 184.0. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close
above the 9-day moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market
closed over the pivot swing number.

BEAN OIL (DEC): The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Daily
stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to
reinforce a downside break especially if near-term support is penetrated. The
next downside target is 20.19. It is a slightly negative indicator that the
close was lower than the pivot swing number. Daily swing resistance is found at
20.82 and above there at 21.05. Support should be encountered at 20.39 and
20.19.

 

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

9/8/2003

The market in Chicago and KC managed to hold or
close above 50% retracement support levels which may be a sign of a near-term
low before closing higher on the session. The improved technical action and
oversold condition basis traditional short-term technical indicators helped
support. Weekly export inspections came in at 23.5 million bushels as compared
with 20-22 million expected. Cumulative inspections have reached 278.2 million
bushels as compared with 252.6 million bushels last year at this time. Stats
Canada in the morning released stock figures for July 31st which showed wheat
stocks at 5.65 million tons from 6.73 million last year. The CCC seeks 50,000
tons of US hard red winter wheat for donation to Georgia.

Technical Outlook

WHEAT (DEC) 09/09/03: The daily closing price
reversal up is positive. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the
market is in a slightly bullish posture. Look for near-term support at 357 1/2
and below there at 353 , with resistance levels at 365 1/2 and 369 . The
market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term
trend remains negative. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to
oversold levels. The next downside target is 353 .

 

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

9/8/2003

The cattle market moved to new contract highs and
new all-time highs in active trade. Buyers were hesitant late last week and
early today to jump in on the long side but when mid-day beef prices posted a
new all-time high, buyers were active with futures holding a stiff discount to
cash. Boxed-beef prices were up $1.85 with $151.73 which exceeded the June
all-time highs and added to the bullish tone. The tight supply of market-ready
cattle for this week combined with better profit margins from the packer should
support improved demand from the packer with traders now looking for record high
cash markets this week with offers at mostly $87.00 in the panhandle.

Technical Outlook

CATTLE (OCT) 09/09/03: Studies are showing
positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is
warranted. The next upside target is 87.57. Since the close was above the 2nd
swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and could see more
upside follow-through early in the session. Support should be encountered at
85.57 and below there at 84.52. Market resistance is at 87.10 and then again at
87.57. A new contract high was made on the rally. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The 9-day
RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels.

 

LEAN HOGS RECAP

9/8/2003

October hogs closed sharply higher for the second
day in a row as cash markets were higher again before the opening and pork
values were up on Friday. New all-time highs in beef and cattle futures and a
second day of limit-up action in the bellies provided underlying support.
Slaughter came in at 380,000 head which was in line with trade expectations.
Peoria hogs were a full $2.00 higher on the session and buyers late last week
and early this week are beginning to talk about a tighter available supply or
else producers are holing out for higher prices ahead. The premium of futures to
the cash market is a limiting factor except on days when the cash market is very
strong.

Technical Outlook

HOGS (OCT) 09/09/03: With the close over the 1st
swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position.
Resistance levels comes in at 59.42 and 59.87 today, while support is around
58.22 and then 57.47. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above
the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies are trending higher, but have entered
overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at 59.87. With a reading
over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels.

 

COCOA MARKET RECAP

9/8/2003

Despite seeing signs that Ivory Coast cocoa
shipments were being blocked by armed forces the market didn’t seem to be
concerned probably because flow form the coming crop isn’t an issue. The London
market showed almost no reaction to events Monday as that market finished 1 tick
higher on the session. Even the US session saw muted action with a minor rally
and minor failure but an nearly unchanged close on the day.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (DEC)09/09/03 The market tilt is slightly
negative with the close under the pivot. Cocoa should run into resistance at
1712 and above there at 1724 with support at 1681 and 1662. Daily stochastics
turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a
downside break especially if near-term support is penetrated. The next downside
target is 1662.25.

 

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

9/8/2003

The broadening bottom formation and the push
through the top of the upper end of the market’s 3 month old trading range
triggered a surge in fund short covering and speculative buying in Dec coffee.
The push through 68 and close over 70, which fills the gap left in May, greatly
improves Dec coffee’s technical structure, but the fundamentals are still
lacking. However, if rain misses Brazil’s growing region over the coming
weekend, traders could start becoming more bullish. Dec coffee is now in a
position to test the May high at 74.25.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (DEC)9/9/03 The gap upmove on the day
session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. The market has a bullish tilt
coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. The
9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. Studies
are showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some
caution is warranted. The near-term upside objective is at 73.20.The Coffee
contract should run into resistance at 72.20 and above there at 73.20 with
support at 68.5 and 65.80. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close
above the 9-day moving average.

 

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

9/8/2003

There is still no sign of the sugar market
putting in some type of low in spite of the oversold condition. The market
attempted an early rally yesterday but there was a near lack of new buying
support as the buyers of the past several weeks are still in a long liquidation
mode. In fact, the traders report on the weekend showed that as of last week,
speculators were still net long over 22,000 contracts. Hefty supplies from
Brazil and other key exporters combined with a lack of demand from traditional
importers and only routine export business has kept cash markets weak and
speculators selling to exit long-held long positions.

Technical Outlook

SUGAR (OCT) 09/09/03: The daily closing price
reversal down puts the market on the defensive. The market’s close below the
pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. Swing resistance comes in at
6.21, with support found at 5.89. The market’s short-term trend is negative as
the close remains below the 9-day moving average. Daily momentum studies are on
the rise from low levels and should accelerate a move higher on a push through
the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 6.21. With a
reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels.

 

COTTON MARKET RECAP

9/8/2003

Dec cotton was pressured by trade & commercial
selling as futures were unable to see much follow through buying above 60 cents.
Position adjustment ahead of this week’s supply/demand report and some profit
taking after a week’s worth of up action contributed to the price break. There
is some speculation the USDA may raise US cotton production in this week’s
report which may have triggered some profit taking. If Dec cotton fails to hold
59, the next support area comes in around 58.60. A lack of crop deterioration in
tonight’s conditions report could bring on more selling on Tuesday since the
market remains over bought.

Technical Outlook

COTTON (DEC) 09/09/03: The market’s close above
the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The
swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st
support number. Next resistance area comes in at 60.10 and then again at 60.99,
while support is targeted at 58.67 and 58.13. Studies are showing positive
momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The
next upside target is 60.99. The outside day down and close below the previous
day’s low is a negative signal. The downside closing price reversal on the daily
chart is somewhat negative.