Here’s What The Gold Market Is Looking For

Technical Outlook

#BONDS (JUN) 04/27/04: With the close higher than
the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. Near-term
resistance for bonds is at 108.02 and then again at 108.10, while swing support
hits at 107.13 and below there at 107.00. The market’s close below the 9-day
moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Daily
stochastics are showing positive momentum from oversold levels which should
reinforce a move higher if near-term resistance is taken out. The next upside
target is 108.10.

T-NOTES(JUN) The upside closing price reversal on
the daily chart is somewhat bullish. The daily stochastics gave a bearish
indicator with a crossover down. The next downside objective is now at 110.09.
The market’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup.
Near-term resistance for the T-Notes is at 110.30 and then again at 111.03,
while swing support hits at 110.17 and below there at 110.09. The market’s
short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving
average. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels.

STOCK INDICES RECAP

4/26/2004

The stock market continued to see favorable
earnings flow but for some reason the buyers are standing back. Apparently some
of the weakness in the broad market was fostered by the weakness in the NASDAQ.
Biotech shares were very strong early Monday but even that failed to inspire a
conclusive buying flow early in the session. New homes sales were also up
sharply and that should have given the bulls an edge. In short, the bulls are
getting the information but are not getting the expected payoff.

Technical Outlook

#S&P500 (JUN) 04/27/04: The market’s close below
the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The daily closing price
reversal down puts the market on the defensive. Underlying support comes in at
1131.55 and 1125.08, with overhead resistance at 1144.25 and 1150.48. The
market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.
Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range which should support a move
higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at
1150.48.

S&P E-Mini (JUN): The market could take on a
defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down. Stochastics are at
mid-range, but trending higher which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The next upside objective is 1151.06. The
market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. Near-term
resistance for the S&P Mini is at 1144.63 and then again at 1151.06, while swing
support hits at 1131.38 and below there at 1124.56. A positive signal for trend
short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average.

NASDAQ (JUN) The downside closing price reversal
on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The market’s close above the 9-day
moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The swing
indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st
support number. The market should run into resistance at 1502.25 and above there
at 1514.63 with support at 1476.75 and 1463.63. Positive momentum studies in the
neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The next upside target
is 1514.6.

MINI DOW (JUN) The market’s close above the 9-day
moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market should
run into resistance at 10509 and above there at 10551 with support at 10413 and
10359. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce
higher price action. The next upside target is 10551. With the close higher than
the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture.

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

4/26/2004

The Dollar traded weaker Monday as expectations
for an imminent rise in US rates continued to be dampened by comments from Fed
members despite a higher than expected rise in new home sales for March.
However, the Dollar’s trend remains up and US data out later this week should be
supportive to the currency. The Euro gained in reaction to a stronger German Ifo
business climate survey and helped to temper ideas that the ECB may soon lower
rates as Euro-zone ministers have been putting pressure on the central bank to
stimulate growth. The Yen gained on ideas more money could be flowing back to
Japan to take advantage of a rising Japanese stock market. The pound gained
following comments from a Bank of England official which the market interpreted
to mean that UK rates could be rising soon.

Technical Outlook

#CURRENCIES 04/27/04: YEN (JUN): The market’s
close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains
positive. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a bullish indicator for
trend. Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s
posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the
session. Swing resistance is targeted at 92.34 and above there at 92.62, with
the yen finding support around 91.93 and below there at 91.80. The close under
the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down.
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The
next upside target is 92.62.

EURO (JUN): Daily momentum studies are on the
rise from low levels and should accelerate a move higher on a push through the
1st swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 1.1896. The market is
in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. Swing
support for the Euro comes in at 1.1808, with overhead resistance at 1.1896. The
market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day
moving average. The major trend is down with the cross over back below the
40-day moving average. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish with
more selling pressure possible today.

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

4/26/2004

The gold and silver markets tried to rally early
Monday and failed to hold those gains even though the Dollar fell back
significantly. In order to really turn up long interest in the gold market the
trade seems to want the Dollar to fall below critical support of 90.60. The
market seems to have lost a least a portion of the investment players and gold
is only getting limited interest from the flight to quality angle even after an
oil facility in Iraq was attacked. In other words, a lower Dollar and rising
terrorism fears isn’t providing increased long interest!

Technical Outlook

#P-METALS 04/27/04: SILVER (JUL): A positive
setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. Initial support for
silver is at 626.0 and below there at 626.0 with resistance likely at 626.0 and
626.0. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the
short-term trend remains negative. Momentum studies are declining, but have
fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is 626.0. The 9-day RSI
under 30 indicates the market is approaching oversold levels. The gap upmove on
the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend.

GOLD (JUN): Support for gold today comes in near
394.58, while resistance is pegged at 399.58. The daily stochastics gave a
bullish indicator with a crossover up. The near-term upside objective is at
399.58. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot
swing number. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains
below the 9-day moving average. The gap up on the day session chart gave a
bullish indicator and more follow through could be seen this session.

COPPER MARKET RECAP

4/26/2004

The copper market surprisingly traded in a tight
range to start but could have faded early off the weakness in equity prices.
However, with the Dollar falling back from another upside breakout the US market
might have found some light buying interest. Copper prices were also supported
by news that a Codelco facility was reducing its production targeting due to an
unusual number of accidents at that facility. In a negative note Chile’s
Escondida 1st quarter copper output increased by 9.8% on the year. Copper
certainly didn’t show too much benefit from the much stronger than expected new
home sales report and that suggests that the bull camp is no chomping at the bit
to get long.

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

4/26/2004

Energy prices were mostly higher Monday early in
the session because of the weekend attack against Iraqi oil export facilities.
However, countervailing the positive tilt off the terrorism front were
suggestions that the Department of Energy might investigate changes to summer
gasoline rules that would help supply meet demand. These rumored changes are not
apparently associated with the waiver issue from last week! The fact that the
southwest is beginning to show hot temps continues to provide natural gas with
support but the natural gas market is carrying a massive small spec long
position.

Technical Outlook

#ENERGIES 04/27/04: CRUDE OIL (JUN): With the
close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately
positive position. Support for crude is keyed on 36.67 and below there at 36.31,
with resistance pegged at 37.27 and 37.51. The market’s short-term trend is
positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. The daily stochastics gave a
bullish indicator with a crossover up. The near-term upside objective is at
37.51. Consider buying pull-backs since daily studies are bullish.

UNLEADED GAS (JUN): Studies are showing positive
momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The
next upside target is 120.01. A positive setup occurred with the close over the
1st swing resistance. Resistance today is at 120.01, while support should be
found around 115.11. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests
the short-term trend remains positive.

HEATING OIL (JUN): With the close over the 1st
swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position.
Heating oil should encounter support around 90.36, with resistance is at 95.16.
The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving
average. Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should
accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The next
downside objective is now at 90.36.

CORN MARKET RECAP

4/26/2004

A slowdown in fund selling and strength in the
other grains helped support the recovery off of the lows after early selling
drove new crop December under psychological support at 300 1/2 early in the
session. The close looks a bit positive. Weekend rains were seen as beneficial
to the early planted corn and the outlook for several sunny days ahead has
traders believing that the rapid pace of plantings of the past few weeks will
continue this week. Traders expect that the weekly crop progress report tonight
will show plantings near 35-37% complete as of Sunday as compared with 20% last
week. Taiwan bought 57,000 tons of US corn overnight and Taiwan also seeks up to
56,000 tons of US corn and 21,000 tons of US corn in other tenders. Weekly
export inspections came in at 24.16 million bushels as compared with 37-41
million expected. Cumulative shipments have reached 1.198 billion bushels as
compared with 968.2 million last year at this time. The weekend COT report
showed an overbought condition. Short-term support for December corn comes in at
300 1/2 and 297 with 303 and 307 3/4 (40-day ma) as resistance.

Technical Outlook

#CORN (JUL) 04/27/04: Daily stochastics are
trending lower, but have declined into oversold territory. The next downside
objective is now at 301 1/4. The market’s close below the 1st swing support
number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. Market resistance comes
in at 311 1/4 today, with support at 301 1/4. The market’s short-term trend is
negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. Daily studies
pointing down suggests selling minor rallies.

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

4/26/2004

The close near the highs might be considered
supportive as the active fund selling which has hit the market recently has
slowed. Palm oil gains helped provide some underlying support to the oil market
and high prices for livestock and record high prices for milk are factors which
helped support meal. Good rains across the mid-west over the weekend helped
improve soil conditions for the planting season ahead and clear and sunny
weather expected for the next several days is also seen as bearish. Rains in the
northern mid-west dry areas this week should help prepare soils for planting as
well. Traders expect tonight’s weekly crop progress report to show that the
soybean crop is near 2-3% planted. Sparks pegged Brazil production at 51.5
million tons and Argentina at 33.5 million tons as compared with 56 million and
35 million in the last USDA world supply/demand report. The Brazil harvest is
thought to be near 90% complete. The USDA announced a sale of 120,000 tons of US
soybeans to unknown destination for the 2004/2005 marketing year. Weekly export
inspections came in at 3.217 million bushels as compared with 7-11 million
expected. Cumulative shipments have reached 785.3 million bushels as compared
with 911.9 million last year at this time. Near-term support for November
soybeans comes in at 733 and 727 with 740 and 744 as resistance.

Technical Outlook

#SOYBEANS (JUL) 04/27/04: With the close higher
than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The
next area of resistance is around 965 1/2 and 971 3/4, while 1st support hits
today at 950 1/2 and below there at 941 3/4. The market’s close below the 9-day
moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Daily
stochastics are showing positive momentum from oversold levels which should
reinforce a move higher if near-term resistance is taken out. The next upside
target is 971 3/4.

MEAL (JUL): Daily momentum studies are on the
rise from low levels and should accelerate a move higher on a push through the
1st swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 304.0. The daily
closing price reversal down puts the market on the defensive. First resistance
comes in at 301.8, with support at 297.6. The market’s short-term trend is
negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The market’s close
below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup.

BEAN OIL (JUL): The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Positive
momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action.
The next upside target is 33.54. With the close higher than the pivot swing
number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The downside closing price
reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Daily swing resistance is
found at 33.08 and above there at 33.54. Support should be encountered at 32.18
and 31.74.

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

4/26/2004

Beneficial rains across the winter wheat belt on
the weekend and especially rains in the western Kansas region along with bearish
export news helped to pressure the market and trigger additional long
liquidation selling from speculators. The traders report with options on the
weekend showed that speculators were still holding a net long position of over
32,000 contracts as of April 20th and with futures at the lowest level since
March 16th, the market looks vulnerable to more long liquidation selling ahead.
In addition, the market found pressure from rains in the northern plains which
should help improve soil moisture for the spring wheat crop plantings as some
areas needed rain to proceed. Weekly export inspections came in at 29.5 million
bushels as compared with 12-17 million expected. Cumulative shipments have
reached 1.014 billion bushels as compared with 757.8 million last year at this
time. News that Egypt bought 120,000 tons of wheat from Australia and none from
the US over the weekend helped to pressure the market as well. More rain in the
forecast for the central plains in the US and in the China northern wheat plains
for late this week has added to the bearish tone. Traders will look at crop
conditions and planting progress tonight for direction. July wheat support
levels come in at 370 1/4 and 364 with 379 and 384 as resistance.

Technical Outlook

#WHEAT (JUL) 04/27/04: The daily closing price
reversal up is positive. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the
market is in a slightly bullish posture. Look for near-term support at 378 and
below there at 371 1/2, with resistance levels at 388 and 391 1/2. The market’s
close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend
remains negative. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold
levels. The next downside target is 371 1/2.

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

4/26/2004

June cattle closed 132 higher on the session and
192 points off of the lows of the day as the 40-day moving average and last
weeks lows held on the early break. The huge discount of futures to the cash
market limited the early selling and may have helped prompt short-covering.
Boxed-beef cut-out values were higher at mid-session which added to the positive
tone. Slaughter came in at 115,000 head as compared with trade expectations at
108,000-120,000 head. After a trip to Tokyo, the USDA Agriculture Undersecretary
indicated that the US is hopeful that Japan will resume importing some American
beef by autumn.

Technical Outlook

#CATTLE (JUN) 04/27/04: Negative momentum studies
in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside
target is 75.32. Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the
market’s posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in
the session. Support should be encountered at 76.80 and below there at 75.32.
Market resistance is at 78.82 and then again at 79.37. The market’s close above
the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive.

LEAN HOGS RECAP

4/26/2004

June hogs closed sharply higher and to the
highest level since April 15th as strong demand from packers helped support
higher cash markets and additional buying from fund traders. Cash markets were
mostly .50-$1.00 higher with Peoria up $1.00 as packers were more aggressive
than expected. Slaughter came in at 384,000 head as compared with trade
expectations of 378,000-390,000 head. After weekend rains, packers felt that
today would be their best shot at producer marketings before many producers move
their attention to fieldwork during the middle part of the week with sunny skies
in Iowa/Minnesota region.

Technical Outlook

#HOGS (JUN) 04/27/04: With the close over the 1st
swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position.
Resistance levels comes in at 73.17 and 73.47 today, while support is around
72.17 and then 71.47. Consider buying pull-backs since daily studies are
bullish. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day
moving average. The daily stochastics gave a bullish indicator with a crossover
up. The near-term upside objective is at 73.47.

COCOA MARKET RECAP

4/26/2004

The cocoa market reacted positively towards a
stronger than expected increase in the net short position of the funds in last
Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report. Fund short covering was cited as the
strength underlying today’s market, as the nearby May contract closed 40 higher
at 1396 and July closed 42 higher at that same price level. July cocoa gapped
higher on the open and barely looked back, trading to its highest level since
April 16th. Last Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed funds increasing
their net short position by 7180 to 19,511 in the futures and by 6975 to 20,054
in the futures and options combined. The dollar was weaker today, which may have
lent some support as well.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (JUL) 04/27/04 The gap upmove on the day
session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. The market has a bullish tilt
coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. Cocoa
should run into resistance at 1412 and above there at 1425 with support at 1380
and 1361. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce
higher price action. The next upside target is 1424.50.

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

4/26/2004

July Coffee closed 10 higher in choppy, two-sided
trade. London was down but New York failed to find much direction after the
Brazil crop estimate failed to excite the bulls or the bears. Brazil’s official
crop estimate for the 2004/2005 season was revised to 36.1-40.46 million bags
from the December forecast of 34.11-37.47 million bags and from 28.5 million
bags last year. Traders still believe the crop will be near 43-45 million bags.
Vietnam officials pegged their 2004/2005 crop at 11.5-12 million bags but the
trade believes that the crop is at least 13 million bags.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (JUL) 4/27/04 The daily closing price
reversal up is positive. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close
over the swing pivot. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a
bullish indication. The near-term upside objective is at 71.55. The Coffee
contract should run into resistance at 71.10 and above there at 71.55 with
support at 70.1 and 69.55. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the
close remains below the 9-day moving average.

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

4/26/2004

July sugar closed 10 higher on the session and
near the highs of the day as fund buying was strong after choppy, two-sided
trade early in the day. The market did not react much to the USDA attaché report
in Brazil as the forecast for production for the 2004/2005 crop season was in
line with trade expectations. Cane production was pegged at a record 373 million
metric tons, up 6% from last year with sugar production pegged at 27.55 million
tons, up 8% from last year. Exports from Brazil are expected to reach 16.7 mmt,
up 2.16 mmt from the 2003/2004 season. London closed unchanged in choppy trade
with continued talk of potential imports from India this season and traders
awaiting news on the Egypt tender for 160,000 tons. UK producers were 96%
complete for planting beets with plantings expected to be close to last year.
The Thailand harvest is near complete with cane production for the 2003/2004
season thought to be no higher than 65 million tons from a record 74.07 million
last year.

Technical Outlook

#SUGAR (JUL) 04/27/04: The upside closing price
reversal on the daily chart is somewhat bullish. With the close over the 1st
swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. Swing
resistance comes in at 7.02, with support found at 6.68. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies
trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are
taken out. The next downside objective is now at 6.68.

COTTON MARKET RECAP

4/26/2004

The cotton market collapsed to close sharply
lower on the session as the steady/higher opening and move to the highest level
since April 8th failed to attract new buying interest. Weakness in the stock
market and ideas that the rains in the southeast over the next day or so may be
enough to support better planting conditions for some of the dry areas helped to
pressure the market. The Cotlook A Index came in at 70.60, up 40 cents from
Friday.

Technical Outlook

#COTTON (JUL) 04/27/04: The market’s close below
the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative.
The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive.
Next resistance area comes in at 63.30 and then again at 64.87, while support is
targeted at 61.05 and 60.37. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will
tend to reinforce higher price action. The next upside target is 64.87. The
outside day down and close below the previous day’s low is a negative signal.
The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.