Here’s What’s Critical Today
Stocks Quiet Ahead of FOMC; FX
Not So Quiet
It was a typical day ahead of the FOMC meeting,
early morning activity followed be a slow drift lower with no real volatility.Â
Perhaps more than in recent meetings, tomorrow might be more pivotal. Since the
last meeting the economic data has been mixed and some of it lower than
expected. Job creation continues to be a problem. The announcement at 11:15
PST today will be key. While there is a little chance of a rate change, the
language accompanying the announcement will be critical. Look for potentially
good HVT set-ups in gold stocks as the dollar will likely bounce around if the
Fed throws the market a curve ball.
Speaking of curve balls, check out this news
headline from yesterday which set the FX markets into a mid-morning frenzy:
“BOJ mulling end to massive
intervention. The Bank of Japan is mulling ending its massive yen-selling
interventions in the currency market by the end of March, the Nihon Keizai
Shimbun reported from Tokyo in its early Tuesday edition. “Some central bank
officials predict that it will walk away from large-scale interventions by the
end of this month and that the upward pressure on the yen … will abate
beginning in April,” the Nikkei reported.”
Â
As we all know, the BoJ has been a
diligent seller of the Yen in the last year or so in order to protect their
export sector. This has cause numerous whip saw moves in the Yen especially for
those who were attempting to benefit from a rise in the Yen based on solid macro
picture. So while this news is intriguing, one still needs to be wary of the
looking to go long the Yen, it is a tricky and volatile currency.Â
^next^
That news item aside, FX too was rather quiet.Â
Looks as though the Fed meeting will put many traders on hold.
With regards to HVT
trading, I only did a handful of trades yesterday, all on the opening. There
were no large gains to be had, but solid set-ups nonetheless. Take a look at
the 1-minute charts during the first hour of these stocks and you will likely
see the HVT set-ups I was looking at. ATH
(Anthem) was the best of the bunch, and frankly even I was surprised hoe much it
pooped when I bought it at $89. While I was not able to take advantage of the
whole move up, I caught a good chunk of it.
CCL
(Carnival Cruise) was a nice Rubber Band Trade and
ROK (Rockwell Automation) was simply a classic
case of buying a strong stock in a weak market on a pull-back. Not a big trade
by any means, but solid on all fronts.
FX:
I wanted to share one Position Trade idea I have
been contemplating for some time now. The recent move higher in the
USD/JPY has seemed a bit peculiar despite
the continued positive data in Japan, regardless, the strength in the dollar has
proven to be the more important. However, if you were looking at the weekly and
daily charts of this pair in the last few sessions you will notice some signs of
potential weakness. This combined with my bullish view on Japan/Asia is
beginning to get me interested in shorting this pair.
As always, feel free to send me your comments and
questions.