Here’s Why This Week Could Prove Pivotal
Market Trend: Tip-top of Range
Market Outlook: Volatile
The Broad Market Outlook:
Well, these
markets refuse to go down — for
now. The markets reversed last week’s decline, and finished to the upside
for all of the three major indices, the Dow
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PowerRating) S&P 500
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Nasdaq Composite
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PowerRating). Given the flood of macro data on the way (as discussed below),
this week could prove pivotal.
The Week’s Macro Data Market Movers:
The
Macroeconomic Calendar
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* Potential major market movers in red
This is definitely a red letter week for macro
reports. It will start off with a bang with the almighty ISM — expectations
have been raised by the Chicago version of this and anything short of the ISM
meeting these expectations will be bearish.
Look for a bit of sluggishness in auto sales on
Tuesday while on Wednesday, the productivity numbers for Q1 arrive. We keep
waiting for productivity to falter — and believe it has only been robust of late
because so many people have been getting laid off. If — no, when — productivity
slacks off, this will be bearish.
On Thursday, we will see if new jobless claims
drop below 400,000 — a nice little possible bullish boost. Plus, we will see if
Europe is going to be strong enough to buy our exports (or is drifting into
recession?) and whether the Europeans are going to lower interest rates by 25 or
50 basis points. (A cut is assured but 50 basis points would put a quick halt
to the dollar’s slide.)
Finally, the Big Kahuna jobs report flies on Friday. We will be surprised at
any unexpected good news.
If you have a favorite macroplay or stock you would like us to consider in this
column, send an e-mail to
peter@peternavarro.com or go directly to
https://www.peternavarro.com. We’d love to hear from you.  Â