The SPX was +13.4% in 2012 and +18.6% YTD as of the intraday 7/23/13 1698.78 high. It closed the month +4.9% at 1685.72 and +18.2% YTD. It is an artificial market inflated by the Fed, and the ending will be ugly.
How can you not significantly reduce the percentage of your long equity portfolio allocations to take advantage of the 2013 Fed Ponzi scheme gains, and most of all for preservation of your hard earned capital, even though Washington is hell bent on devaluing it? As for bonds- forget about it.
The market remains significantly long term O/B with a working negative 5 RSI monthly divergence relative to the new bull cycle high, and has advanced 6 of 7 months in 2013. There is also the anticipated long-term time symmetry next week which I outlined in my Trading Service.
The government is revising the way they calculate GDP back to 1929, but the game has always been “if it can`t brainwash the public with the current method then revise it so they can”. The BS never ends, and you can bet that the revisionary method will be more favorable to the government going forward after they sprinkle the “magic dust” on the data.
“The statistics are revised and manipulated in so many ways trying desperately to influence the people and markets that I seriously question whether the people who even calculate the numbers realize what the truth is behind the nonsense”. [Martin Armstrong, 1996 Wall Street Journal]
However, the bottom line is that “economic prosperity depends on employment [full time] and earned income [wages]”, so unless that improves the Fed`s market inflated Ponzi scheme will collapse sooner than later.
The implied volatility is near 52-week lows and the intraday trading travel range has obviously narrowed, so it is important to stress the High Probability-Low Stress day trading strategies with symmetry because there is lots of noise in the daily price action.
For example, the SPX opened at a discount on 7/26/13 and B/O of its opening range to new intraday lows below all of its EMA`s, so that was a short opportunity for various traders. The Index made a 1676.03 intraday low on the 11:00AM bar which was in an extended volatility band zone, and the outside bar entry above 1677.54 with the -1.28 VB at 1677.25 ran to 1691.65. The setup had symmetry and fit my Core Framework which I have included in this commentary so it was a positive low stress trading decision.
On Mon 7/29/13 the SPX also B/O of its opening range and traded down to a 1681.85 low on the 11:35AM bar and the symmetry was the 816EMA, -1.0 VB at 1681.93, and the .618RT to the previous 1676.03 low at 1681.72 in addition to a positive 5 RSI divergence. The price setup was a Dynamite Triangle which is a basic entry pattern in my “High Probability-Low Stress Day Trading” methodology.