are higher this morning on the back of
better-than-expected Cisco (CSCO) earnings, strong overseas markets, and
follow-through from yesterday’s rally. Based on the futures prices, it looks as
though we are set to open right at, or just above yesterday’s highs (hey, I’ll
take a shot on the short side there). What will ultimately determine the outcome
today will be volume. If the marketÂ opens on yesterday’s highs and there is no
activity, it will soon sink under its own weight and we will likely have more
consolidation ahead. If volume comes with this move, we may have something.
In Europe, markets have already given back some early gains with the FTSE up
just 9.00 points or .22%, the DAX up 11.50 points or .32%, and the CAC40 up
43.79 points or 1.33%. Asia performed much better with the Nikkei gaining 333.38
points or 3.51%, and the Hang Seng rising 277.05 points or 2.86%.
Today will mostly be an intelligence-gathering exercise. We will need to observe
the market and note the following things: Volume (or lack of it), leaders,
laggards, and how implied volatility and implied volatility curves react to the
market. We will then use the intelligence gathered to develop strategies for the
future, keeping in mind that this is still a bear market, while playing matador
on the rallies (or doing some bullish daytrading if you are so inclined).
The near-term boundaries on this market are the “month-end markup highs” and the
lows from 8/05, and ultimately 7/24. Until one of those two levels are taken out
we’ll keep it light.
AO Smell – We were stopped out in AOL yesterday, and we are liquidating our
buy-write positions this morning. Easily one of the worst trades of the year, we
will be glad to be rid of this pig and clear it from our minds.
As one would expect, volatility got body-slammed yesterday. The VIX
fell 3.58 to 45.73, the VXN lost 3.34 to 64.18, and the QQV lost 1.77 to 56.97.
Once again, should the market hold, there is plenty of room for implied
volatility to fall.
Trade Updates (Tuesday 8/06/02)
AOL – stops were triggered on our AOL buy-writes today, but since it
happened so close to the close we will be liquidating this morning.
IWM – sold out the IWM August 70 puts
at $.50, a $1.50 loss.
New Actions (New Recommendations)
Orders (Old Recommendations)
BAC – Buy the January 50 / 60 put spread at $2.00 (25%).
MMM- Buy another 25% of the MMM October 110 / 120 put spread at $2.00.
MMM(2) – Sell half the MMM October 110 /120 put spread at $5.50.
Recap of open
CIEN – Long the January 2.5 / 5
reverse collar at $.40 (25%).
AOL – long the July 22.5 buy-write at $19.40 (50%). July has expired,
looking to roll into January ’03. Stop triggered today, execution tommorow’s
AOL -long the October 20 buy-write at $16.30 (25%). Stop triggered today,
execution tommorow’s open.
HAL -long theÂ January 15Â buy-write at $12.05 (100%).
DYN – long the January 15 calls at $3.20 – left over from proxy buy-write
(50%). Left for dead.
AMGN – long the January 30 /40 put spread at $2.50 (50%).
BAC – Long the January 50 / 60 put
spread at an average price of $2.75 (50%).
IBM – Long the January 50 /60 put spread at $2.50 (25%).
Call Spread Positions:
DJX – Long the August 86 /90 call ratio spread 1:2 for $.50 (50%).
QQQ – Long the August 26 / 28 1:2 call ratio spread for even money (25%).
QQQ – Long the August 26 / 28 / 30 “Christmas tree” at $.35 (25%).
IWM – Long the August 70 puts at $2.00 (25%).Â Liquidated at $.50 on 8/6/02.
C – Long the December / August 30 put calendar spread at $1.70 (25%).
C – Long the December / SeptemberÂ put calendar spread at $1.00 (25%).
MMM – Long the October 110 / 120 put spread at an average price of $2.87 (75%).
AOL – Two
consecutive closes below $10.00 or one close below $9.64. Triggered