Hitting The Knuckler
Another rerun of Wile E.
Market this morning, this time courtesy of a
(
CSCO |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) upgrade attempt
that would have made Acme Products itself proud and put me immediately into my
“prove it to me mode”…meaning let’s find a pullback toward support
that tests and sticks before committing to the long side. Once the three-minute
15 MA broke, there were several nice trend entries using the one-minute
microscope to find higher-probability opportunities. Keep in mind a pullback
doesn’t necessary require a price retracement to the 15MA, as the 15 MA can
simply move toward a stalling price and have a similar effect, as noted on the
one-minute chart below. As we’re currently in a clear 13-minute downtrend, its
15 MA is my current key indicator and support for the immediate trend.
Monday July
23, 2001Â 11:55 AM EDT
As I was watching some weekend
baseball, including a totally inept pitching performance by the local entrant’s
knuckleballer yesterday in 94 degree heat, I was reminded that trading this
month has seemed very much like trying to hit a knuckleball. Like knuckleball
pitches that vary from doing absolutely nothing to being highly erratic and
completely unhittable, July has presented similar challenges for both intraday
and swing (no pun intended) traders, as the market has ranged from doing
absolutely nothing intraday during the dog days of summer (this trader had his
lowest trade ticket total of the year on Friday) to toying with trader minds
with low-volume overnight futures surges that should perhaps prompt traders to
ask the umpire to inspect the ball. Case
in point, this morning’s 55-point Globex session “get ’em while
they’re short and still sleeping” futures squeeze caused primarily by one
CSCO upgrade.
I’ve seen many scalp and swing traders get whipsawed this month trying to force
action, and perhaps we were all a bit spoiled by the consistent volatility at
higher prices we had during the summer of 2000 vs. the “start and
stop” theme of this summer. My personal goal during most summers is
typically to simply keep my head in the market and preserve capital for the more
opportune times, which is indeed the case during this July. Perhaps baseball can
provide a reinforcing clue for all of us where if you can’t hit the darn pitch,
simply tip your cap to the market in respect knowing with conviction that the
season is long and that you’ll have your day.
Good trading.
For
a more in-depth look at how Don trades the QQQs, click here.