Hogs Close Limit Down

Technical Outlook

#BONDS (JUN) 4/16/2004: The market tilt is
slightly negative with the close under the pivot. Near-term resistance for bonds
is at 108.10 and then again at 108.32, while swing support hits at 107.09 and
below there at 106.30. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a
close under the 9-bar moving average. Daily stochastics declining into oversold
territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The next downside objective
is 106.30. More downside action may be limited by the RSI under 20 putting the
market in extremely oversold territory.

T-NOTES(JUN) Daily stochastics are trending
lower, but have declined into oversold territory. The next downside objective is
now at 110.17. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the
pivot swing number. Near-term resistance for the T-Notes is at 111.18 and then
again at 111.31, while swing support hits at 110.27 and below there at 110.17.
The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day
moving average. With a reading under 20, the 9-day RSI indicates the market is
extremely oversold.

 

STOCK INDICES RECAP

4/15/2004

The stock market could just not get the bull tilt
going Thursday even after the New York Fed manufacturing and Philly Fed
manufacturing readings showed massive gains. Maybe the sharper than expected
rise in US initial unemployment claims, managed to knock the bulls out of the
market early but whatever was influencing prices was apparently negative. With
the corporate earnings reports simply not providing enough gas for the market
and the situation in Iraq also a trouble spot it would seem that speculators are
just unwilling to bargain hunt.

Technical Outlook

#S&P500 (JUN) 4/16/2004: It is a slightly
negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The daily closing
price reversal down is a negative indicator for prices. Underlying support comes
in at 1118.00 and 1111.60, with overhead resistance at 1132.00 and 1139.60. The
close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for
trend. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move
lower especially if support levels are taken out. The next downside objective is
now at 1111.60.

S&P E-Mini (JUN): The downside closing price
reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Negative momentum studies in
the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside
target is 1111.00. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower
than the pivot swing number. The cross over and close above the 40-day moving
average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up. Near-term resistance for
the S&P Mini is at 1132.00 and then again at 1140.00, while swing support hits
at 1117.50 and below there at 1111.00. The market’s close below the 9-day moving
average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative.

NASDAQ (JUN) A negative signal for trend
short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. There could be
some early pressure today given the market’s negative setup with the close below
the 2nd swing support. The market should run into resistance at 1472.50 and
above there at 1494.75 with support at 1439.50 and 1428.75. Stochastics turning
bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels
are broken. The next downside objective is 1428.75.

MINI DOW (MAR) The daily closing price reversal
down is a negative indicator for prices. The close below the 9-day moving
average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market should run into
resistance at 10411 and above there at 10469 with support at 10298 and 10243.
Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower
especially if support levels are taken out. The next downside target is now at
10243. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing
pivot.

 

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

4/15/2004

The Dollar opened higher but then seemed to fade
as the session wore on. It was clear that the early numbers weren’t going to
boost the Dollar and further and that prompted a number of longs to begin
banking profits. The Yen and Euro were significantly oversold coming into the
session and with the US initial claims readings much softer than expected we can
understand shorts in the Euro and Pound deciding to take some profits. News that
China might be tightening credit might also be a sign that the Dollar has risen
too much versus the Asian currencies.

Technical Outlook

#CURRENCIES 4/16/2004: YEN (JUN): A negative
signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average.
The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot.
Swing resistance is targeted at 92.70 and above there at 92.88, with the yen
finding support around 92.20 and below there at 91.88. The market back below the
40-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down.
Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be
drying up soon. The next downside objective is 91.88.

EURO (JUN): Momentum studies are still bearish,
but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The next downside target is now at 1.1855. The defensive setup, with the
close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness. Swing
support for the Euro comes in at 1.1855, with overhead resistance at 1.2029. The
close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for
trend. The close below the 40-day moving average is an indication the
longer-term trend is down. More selling pressure is likely given yesterday’s gap
lower price action on the day session chart.

 

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

4/15/2004

Seeing the Dollar fall back from the recent highs
gave the gold and silver markets a chance to bounce off their lows of the day.
It would seem like the Dollar is short term overbought and that some economic
anxiety still remains in place in the US economy. It is also supportive that
China is concerned that runaway investment growth inside their country could
result in an overheating of investment speculation. In other words, the US Fed
doesn’t see a risk of inflation but the Bank of China is certainly concerned.
Investment growth in China increased by 49%, retail sales in the 1st quarter
rose by 11% and GDP was up 9.7%!

Technical Outlook

#P-METALS 4/16/2004: SILVER (MAY): The market has
a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Initial support
for silver is at 692.8 and below there at 673.9 with resistance likely at 706.9
and 722.8. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the
9-bar moving average. Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory
suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The next downside objective is 673.9.
The market is approaching over sold levels on an RSI reading under 30.

GOLD (JUN): Support for gold today comes in near
393.65, while resistance is pegged at 403.25. Momentum studies are still
bearish, but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action
if it occurs. The next downside target is now at 393.65. It is a slightly
negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The close below the
9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. Some caution
in pressing the downside is warranted with the RSI under 30.

 

COPPER MARKET RECAP

4/15/2004

Copper continues to show a weakened status. Not
only has the slight correction in world equity prices prompted some selling in
copper but news early in the session that China was preparing to tighten credit
caused some concern for the copper bulls. The copper is also being hindered by
the fears of a rising Dollar and by the idea that the US jobs situation is still
tenuous. However, the trade could get a surprise from the US Industrial
production readings Friday morning and from the Shanghai copper stocks released
due out overnight tonight. Aluminum hit a 9-year high in the action Thursday but
even that didn’t give copper any support.

 

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

4/15/2004

The energy complex came roaring back after some
initial weakness Thursday but managed to close firm. It was clear that the
market was initially weak off the large crude stocks build but from the action
Tuesday it is clear that the market is still looking forward to the potential
for tight summer gasoline supplies. However, the market is expecting a decision
soon on the gas waiver and that might have a dampening affect on gasoline
speculation. However, until the equation changes one sees US gasoline supplies
and production as inadequate.

Technical Outlook

#ENERGIES 4/16/2004: CRUDE OIL (JUN): There could
be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing
resistance. Support for crude is keyed on 36.70 and below there at 36.15, with
resistance pegged at 37.50 and 37.75. The upside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar
moving average is a positive signal. Daily stochastics have risen into
overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs.
The near-term upside target is at 37.75.

UNLEADED GAS (JUN): Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The next upside objective is
119.03. The market has a bullish tilt coming into today’s trade with the close
above the 2nd swing resistance. Resistance today is at 119.03, while support
should be found around 114.43. A positive indicator was given with the upside
crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average.

HEATING OIL (JUN): There could be more upside
follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. Heating
oil should encounter support around 92.42, with resistance is at 96.42. The
upside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average is a positive signal. Daily
stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support
reversal action if it occurs. The near-term upside target is at 96.42. The
market rallied to a new contract high. Follow through buying looks likely if the
market can hold yesterday’s gap on the day session chart.

 

CORN MARKET RECAP

4/15/2004

The limit-down move in soybeans and continued
talk that planted acres could jump significantly if the weather remains perfect
for planting helped to trigger the sharp long liquidation sell-off in corn.
Demand fundamentals look supportive. The EU granted import licenses for 301,000
tons of maize for the two weeks ending April 13th which brought imports from the
start of the season to 3.997 million tons. US weekly export sales came in at
1.3354 million tons as compared with trade expectations at 950,000-1.3 million
tons. Old crop sales were 1.258 million tons as compared with 561,800 tons
necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. Old crop sales have averaged
1.154 million tons in the past 5 weeks. Cumulative sales have reached 77.1% of
the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 71.9% on average for this time
of the year. New crop December corn led the market lower with fund long
liquidation selling hitting the market after the bullish demand news as traders
view the current weather pattern as ideal for a fast start to the planting
season. Sales to South Korea on the week were 151,400 tons which suggests that
optional origin purchases are going to the US and not to China. Support for July
corn comes in at 298 1/4 with resistance at 316 1/4 and 324 1/4. The limit-down
trade at mid-session was apparently the first time corn made a limit move since
the expanded limits in August of 2000.

Technical Outlook

#CORN (JUL) 4/16/2004: Stochastics trending lower
at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are
taken out. The next downside target is now at 293 1/4. The market setup is
somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. Market resistance
comes in at 338 3/4 today, with support at 293 1/4. The downside crossover of
the 9 & 18 bar moving average is a negative signal. Short-term indicators on the
defensive. Consider selling an intraday bounce. The daily closing price reversal
down is a negative indicator for prices.

 

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

4/15/2004

The market was called higher on the opening but
commercial and speculative sellers were active early in the session. Once July
soybeans hit 10.00, sell-stops were activated and there was snowballing
speculative and fund selling to drive the market down the 50 cent limit. It was
the first limit move since the expanded limits went into effect in August of
2000. Funds were noted sellers of near 5000 contracts into mid-session. Weekly
export sales came in at 479,300 tons as compared with trade expectations at
100,000-300,000 tons. Old crop sales were 179,000 tons as compared with 36,700
tons necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. Cumulative sales have
reached 96.9% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 89.7% on
average for this time of the year. Old crop meal sales were 16,700 tons as
compared with 21,900 tons necessary each week to reach the USDA projection.
Cumulative meal sales have reached 85.7% of the USDA forecast for the season as
compared with 73.6% on average for this time of the year. Oil sales were 2900
tons as compared with expectations at 1,000-5,000 tons. Good weather for harvest
activities in Brazil is expected to continue into the weekend which helped to
limit the buying support with ideas that the export pipeline for meal and oil
from Brazil could fill up quickly. Support for July soybeans comes in at 957 3/4
and 925 with resistance at 987 and 10.02.

Technical Outlook

#SOYBEANS (JUL) 04/16/04 The close below the 1st
swing support could weigh on the market. The next area of resistance is around
989 2/4 and 1027 2/4, while 1st support hits today at 939 and below there at 926
2/4. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar
moving average. The market back below the 40-day moving average suggests the
longer-term trend could be turning down. Daily stochastics declining into
oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The next downside
objective is 926 2/4. Bearish daily studies indicate selling minor rallies this
session.

MEAL (JUL): Momentum studies are still bearish,
but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The next downside target is now at 287.6. First resistance comes in at
311.7, with support at 292.9. The downside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving
average is a negative signal. The market setup is somewhat negative with the
close under the 1st swing support. Short-term indicators on the defensive.
Consider selling an intraday bounce.

BEAN OIL (JUL): A negative signal for trend
short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. Rising from over
sold levels, daily momentum studies would support higher prices especially on a
close above resistance. The next upside objective is 33.45. The swing indicator
gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number.
The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price
reversal down. Daily swing resistance is found at 32.37 and above there at
33.45. Support should be encountered at 30.70 and 30.11.

 

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

4/15/2004

Helping to trigger the weakness in all the grains
was a growing concern that China’s credit tightening could slow its grain import
campaign. The market was called higher for the opening but weakness in the other
grains and a continued focus on larger world crops for the coming year helped to
trigger more long liquidation selling after the opening. Traders view rains in
the forecast for next week in the plains as a potentially bearish factor and the
good start to crops in Europe and China and a call for good monsoon rains for
India helped to pressure. Weekly export sales came in at 451,700 tons as
compared with trade expectations at 250,000-400,000 tons. Old crop sales were
391,700 tons as compared with 219,900 tons necessary each week to reach the USDA
projection. Cumulative sales have reached 94.7% of the USDA forecast for the
season as compared with 88.1% on average for this time of the year. At their
weekly tender, Japan bought 141,000 tons, 60,000 from the US. The CCC seeks
30,000 tons for Sudan and traders await news on tenders to Iraq as well. The
USDA also announced that exporters sold 138,417 tons to unknown destination.
July wheat support comes in at 381 with resistance at 397 3/4 and 409.

Technical Outlook

#WHEAT (JUL) 4/16/2004: There could be some early
pressure today given the market’s negative setup with the close below the 2nd
swing support. Expect near-term support around 381 2/4 and below there at 374
1/4, with resistance levels at 402 2/4 and 416 1/4. A negative indicator was
given with the downside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average. The market
back below the 40-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be
turning down. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a
price break if support levels are broken. The next downside objective is 374
1/4.

 

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

4/15/2004

The selling binge by fund traders spread to the
meat markets and June cattle closed 157 lower on the session. Ideas that cash
markets are about to top and continued concerns that Canadian cattle will be
allowed into the US helped to pressure the market. Slaughter came in at 126,000
head as compared with trade expectations at 122,000-127,000 head. Boxed-beef
cut-out values were up 41 cents to 162.75 as compared with $154.60 last week at
this time.

Technical Outlook

#CATTLE (JUN) 4/16/2004: A bearish signal was
triggered on a crossover down in the daily stochastics. Stochastics turning
bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels
are broken. The next downside objective is 75.20. There could be some early
pressure today given the market’s negative setup with the close below the 2nd
swing support. Support should be encountered at 75.95 and below there at 75.20.
Market resistance is at 77.97 and then again at 79.25. A negative signal for
trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average.

 

LEAN HOGS RECAP

4/15/2004

The hog market closed limit-down and to the
lowest close since March 26th as a general commodity fund sell-off snowballed to
many markets to pressure. The stiff premium of futures to the cash market and
ideas that producer marketings could pick-up into next week if rains develop in
the mid-west helped to pressure the market. The CME 2-Day lean Index was up 30
cents to 63.11 as compared with 66.84 on April 1st. April hogs expired at noon
at 64.27 which added to the bearish tone as the market is beginning to think
that the high premium might encourage feeding animals to a higher than normal
weight. Slaughter came in at 395,000 head as compared with trade expectations at
385,000-395,000 head.

Technical Outlook

#HOGS (JUN) 4/16/2004: The market setup is
somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. Resistance levels
comes in at 74.05 and 75.92 today, while support is around 71.55 and then 70.92.
The daily closing price reversal down is a negative indicator for prices.
Short-term indicators on the defensive. Consider selling an intraday bounce. The
close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for
trend. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move
lower especially if support levels are taken out. The next downside target is
now at 70.92.

 

COCOA MARKET RECAP

4/15/2004

Cocoa prices continue to be weak with the market
making a series of new low moves on the week. The market will see US grind
readings Friday morning while the European grind numbers were seen to be neutral
to prices. We suspect that currency prices continue to impact cocoa prices and
in the near term the bear camp seems to have control over prices. More downside
ahead unless the US grind comes in above expectations of +4% to +11%.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (JUL) 04/16/04 The close below the 1st
swing support could weigh on the market. Cocoa should run into resistance at
1383 and above there at 1392 with support at 1369 and 1364. Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is
1363.50. Short-term indicators on the defensive. Consider selling an intraday
bounce.

 

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

4/15/2004

The coffee market inched lower in quiet trade as
the massive sell-off in most commodity markets failed to hit coffee. Perhaps the
recent sell-off has already triggered fund long liquidation selling to the point
where the fund position is now longer a burden. Monthly Green Coffee stocks were
up 126,781 bags during March to 5.955 million bags as compared with trade
expectations for an increase of 150,000-300,000 bags. The news is slightly
supportive. CSCE exchange stocks for the day were up 9,873 bags to 4.783 million
with 35,946 bags pending review. The continued jump in exchange stocks and good
weather in Brazil remain as bearish forces.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (JUL) 4/16/04 The downside closing price
reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The market has a slightly
positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside objective is
now at 72.00. The Coffee contract should run into resistance at 73.00 and above
there at 73.40 with support at 72.3 and 72.00. The market’s short-term trend is
negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average.

 

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

4/15/2004

July sugar closed 9 points lower on the session
after the early rally failed to attract new buying interest. In fact, many
commodity markets were hit will aggressive fund selling as the surge in foreign
investment into China and GDP growth near 10% has traders concerned that China
officials might try to slow the economy and tighten credit. August white sugar
in London made contract highs for the 5th session in a row before closing lower.
Traders continue to view the lower crops in India and Thailand as a potentially
supportive factor but remain concerned over the bumper crop prospects in Brazil.

Technical Outlook

#SUGAR (JUL) 4/16/2004: The daily closing price
reversal down is a negative indicator for prices. It is a slightly negative
indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. Swing resistance comes in at
7.12, with support found at 6.70. The close above the 9-day moving average is a
positive short-term indicator for trend. Daily stochastics have risen into
overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs.
The near-term upside target is at 7.12.

 

COTTON MARKET RECAP

4/15/2004

July cotton futures closed 22 higher on the
session but more than 100 points off of the highs of the day. Cotton was one of
the few commodity markets which closed higher on the session as massive fund
long liquidation from many commodities pressured futures. Weekly export sales
came in at 210,400 bales as compared with trade expectations between
100,000-200,000 bales. Old crop sales were 186,300 bales as compared with 44,600
bales necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. Cumulative sales have
reached 94.1% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 96.3% on
average for this time of the year. Shipments hit a marketing year high for the
third week in a row at 476,000 bales as compared with trade expectations between
350,000-400,000 bales.

Technical Outlook

#COTTON (JUL) 4/16/2004: A negative signal for
trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The market
has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Next
resistance area comes in at 63.35 and then again at 64.31, while support is
targeted at 61.92 and 61.45. Stochastics are at mid-range, but trending higher
which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The
next upside objective is 64.31.