Hold Off On That Champagne…
It was certainly good news for the bulls
that Nokia
(
NOK |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was able to hold on to a
35% slice of the mobile-phone market in the third
quarter, but I for one don’t know if that’s really signaled the turnaround
is underway. My feeling is that this morning’s rally indicates something more
like a building of consumer confidence or optimism than a reason to chase the
market higher.
Two stocks that we are following are Siebel
Systems
(
SEBL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and Veritas
Software
(
VTRS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). SEBL reported better-than-expected earnings, but lowered guidance for Q3 and got slapped with a
Morgan Stanley downgrade for its reward. VRTS reported $.19 vs. $.13 on 42%
higher earnings, but the company lowered the 35% to 50% 2001 earnings forecast
to 25% to 35%. They quickly saw their numbers lowered by S&P and CSFB.
Both are getting pretty significant dollar-weighted put accumulations. Not panic
buying, as most traders know the volatility is coming out, and they are hitting
calls and puts as volatility moves back towards the mean. Nonetheless, the fact
that the put trade dominates in both cases makes us feel a test of $30 for SEBL
may be in the cards.
|
|
Call
|
Put
|
$W
|
$W
|
|
Symbol
|
Volume
|
Volume
|
Call
|
Put
|
|
VRTS
|
8,513
|
15,886
|
26,586
|
154,733
|
|
SEBL
|
26,079
|
53,333
|
33,239
|
146,182
|
(1010WallStreet.com has licensed
the use of Hamzei Analytics proprietary options analytics)
Cisco
(
CSCO |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) is certainly getting a boost from institutional buyers stepping up
to the plate and buying calls. Likewise, Sun
Microsystems
(
SUNW |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) options on the CBOE are among the most
active equity class, as 40,000 calls have already changed hands, 20,000 of those
being the July 15 calls, most probably speculating on tonight’s earnings.
|
|
Call
|
Put
|
$W
|
$W
|
|
Symbol
|
Volume
|
Volume
|
Call
|
Put
|
|
CSCO
|
101,322
|
25,350
|
370,374
|
53,801
|
(1010WallStreet.com has licensed
the use of Hamzei Analytics proprietary options analytics)