How’s This For Timing?

A: Yes…with
a caveat. If we could get one of those big down openings…like 200-300
points…with a good dose of panic selling…and then finish near flatline, I
would suggest that the market was sold out in the near-term…but only
near-term. I do not believe any subsequent rally would be strong and
long-lasting.

Well, that’s exactly what the market received
yesterday…a well-deserved reprieve. Notice the word “reprieve.” Many are out
this morning already heralding yesterday’s action as “the low,” “the bottom,”
“end of the correction.” I hope they are right. BUT…but…something was
missing yesterday…something I believe to be very important…CLIMACTIC
VOLUME! In order for me to have become more emboldened here, I needed to see
monstrous volume. That would have told me that everyone who wanted to
sell…sold. I am not so sure the cleansing process is completed. I will just
go as far to say that after a few days of bludgeoning, the market found a
place where it said…”enough is enough.” I will only go as far to say that a
near-term low was put in and maybe…maybe we will see some more upside
testing. Anyone going further than that may not like what’s around the corner.
I will let the market decide.

Random thoughts:

There are no solid bases to buy off of. This
means we wait until things shape up better before we touch anything. If you
have an urge, I would only probe right now.

The tape is still a mess. I scanned through
2500 names last night. Yes, I am psychotic. I found only a handful of good
looking charts while a ton of leadership has been blasted.

Rates keep going up. Over the past 3 days,
while everyone has been talking about stocks, there has been no relief in the
bond market. You know my thoughts on Greenspan. Until he pulls the trigger,
nothing good will happen.

The Mets are actually playing good ball. I
would love an 81-81 season.

Just bought a Lincoln Navigator. Nice timing!
$55 to fill her up. I recommend it highly though. 

Looks like I will be entering the World Series
of Poker out in Vegas on May 22. If you don’t hear from me for a few days, it
means I am making a lot of cake. If I am writing on that Monday, it means I
was nothing more than a dead fish that handed over the bucks for a thrill. I
am a pretty good poker player but pale in comparison to the others that will
be playing. The one thing I do have going for me is that no one knows me.
Should be fun.

Gary Kaltbaum