I expect some selling today, here’s why
Tuesday was another mixed day with all the broader markets green, with the exception of the Dow.
Volume came in heavy leaving an accumulation day on the Nasdaq and NYSE. End of the month/quarter and year for many funds and hedgies helped the volume today. Was a rocky road and a lot of twists and turns to rally back to green late day. This was the third consecutive up month on the Dow, Nas 100, Nas composite and the fourth on the S&P 500.
It has been a great run up, but as we started to see the creep mode set in this week some skeptics about how consumers are really feeling set in. The inflation data is telling us there maybe some issues on this soft landing weâ€™ve been putting so much faith in. So the market will remain data dependent and with about 70% of the earnings released less emphasis on earnings for growth now. Earnings have been good, but there are companies saying the next quarter could slow. For now the Fed seems content with the Fed fund rate at 5.25%, but until Chairman Bernanke gives the all finished sign there is still a chance for another increase and the cut everyone was hedging to come early 2007 is now being talked about a lot less.
Crude rose 37 cents to close at $58.73, which was a nice pop after the $2.39 drop it closed with Monday. Gold closed up 60 cents at $606.80 after a weak start on the day. GLD was a nice trader once the inflation data was out at 10:00 and that will continue to be a trader with each pieces of data released.
Wednesday could leave us wishing it was the end of the month again. This could be our light day with little volatility as we near Fridayâ€™s jobs number. So I would expect Wednesday or Thursday to give us a big pause and wind up day, possibly both days. My bias is still to see some pullback, so any strength into Wednesday Iâ€™ll look for sellers. The ISM index and crude inventories will be watched closely and likely to set the days tone. Weâ€™ve been in range for 5-7 days and I donâ€™t really look for that to change until probably Fridayâ€™s data. Even then if there are no surprises the market may pause until after the Election, so we may have to buy our time in this range.
Economic data for the
Week of Oct. 30thâ€” Nov 3rd: Wednesday 00:00 Auto Sales, 00:00 Truck Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Index, 10:30 Crude Inventories, Thursday 08:30 Initial Claims, 08:30 Productivity-Prel., 10:00 Factory Orders, Friday 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls, 08:30 Unemployment Rate, 08:30 Hourly Earnings, 08:30 Average Workweek, 10:00 ISM Services.
Some earnings for the week of Oct 30th â€” Nov 3rd: Wednesday pre market â€” AGN, BKC, CI, DVN, GRMN, MMC, MA, MYL, NEM, NBL, ZEUS, PTEN, TWX, UPL, ZBRA and after the bell â€” AHS, XRAY, GPRO, LVS, MXIM, OPNT, OSUR, PRU, WCG. Thursday pre market â€” AGU, ABC, BBI, CSK, DJO, ENCY, IP, MGM, OSG, THE, RIG, VPHM, and after the bell â€” APCC, BIO, CEPH, CSC, DLLR, ERTS, HLTH, ICOS, IPAS, JCOM, LF, PDLI, QCOM, SINA, WEBM, WFMI. Friday pre market â€” DUK, OMG, THQI and after the bell â€” LNG.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday with some zig and zag we ended the day half a point lower than Mondays close so in the end we went no where. Wednesdayâ€™s pivot is 1382.50, the weekly pivot is 1384.25. Intraday Support: 1381.25, 1378.75, 1375.5, 1373 and 1370.50. Resistance: 1383.75, 1387.25, 1391.75 and 1395.25.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed +4.74 at 1732.54. Support: 1720.53, 1700.42, 1684.43, 1669.95, 1659.03. Resistance: 1738.72, 1745.79, 1750.21, 1761.46 (Jan 2006 highs), 1797.
I hope everyone has a wonderful day and enjoyed Halloween, let’s hope the market is not spooked into Wednesday.
Teresa Appleton has traded equities and options for
nine years and futures for seven. She founder and CEO of TradeLogic, LLC. For
more information about Teresa and the training she offers stock, options and