If They Don’t Stop, Eventually the Markets Will Make Them Stop

Gary Kaltbaum is an investment adviser with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”… a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.

Greetings from Italy. Recommend the country highly. I am writing this on Saturday getting ready to fly back to the U.S.

“IF THEY DON’T STOP, EVENTUALLY THE MARKETS WILL MAKE THEM STOP!” This is a quote I have lived by for more than a couple of years. The meaning of the quote is simple. If governments around the world do not stop their outrageous spending leading to outrageous deficits, the markets will eventually stop them.

The markets stopped Bear Stearns, Lehman, Washington Mutual, Wachovia and Merrill Lynch…and almost stopped Citigroup and Bank of America. The markets are now working on countries, not just financial companies. I don’t need to tell you which countries. They are all in the news. They are mostly countries where one group of people believes they are entitled to other people’s money. Unfortunately, we are now seeing it in the good old USA as over 40% of wage earners do not pay taxes and now we have an administration and leadership that is determined to redistribute as much wealth as possible, while spending this country into oblivion.

This is a clear lack of respect for taxpayer dollars by politicians, who for the most part, have never run a lemonade stand. They can fool the voters but they cannot fool the markets. Eventually the markets will fight back and that is exactly what we are seeing right now.

Simply put, over the past couple of weeks, markets around the world have come under severe distribution. I do not believe the 1000 point day was real. I believe it was a huge bad trade…but that was resolved quickly. What has not been resolved is a market that for the most part has put in an important top. Very simply, the market’s technicals have been deteriorating quickly…and that’s in spite of last Monday’s 400 point gap to the upside.

For me, I think the probabilities are decently strong that the recent highs could be the highs of the cycle. The deterioration has been sudden and been strong…too much to ignore. Most sectors have topped. Most countries have topped…especially Hong Kong, China, Japan, the UK…and of course, Greece.

I can pretty much go on and on about all the sectors that have topped…all the stocks that have topped…and recently, the many leaders that have topped. The main point I want to make is that I do not think the action we are seeing is just a “reaction” to the news out of Europe…and will end quickly as so many are saying.

The only area that is actually emerging and showing relative strength here is GOLD/SILVER…and that’s probably not a good thing. It is the market yelling that using more debt to fix a debt problem ain’t going to work. Near term, the action is insane. We can bounce…we can go lower…but I am not worrying about the near term here.

Amazingly, governments around the world refuse to learn any lessons about balancing their checkbooks and think they can just spend their way out of trouble. It just doesn’t work that way. And while I have been away, I still kept in touch with what the politicos have been saying…and still see nothing on the horizon that tells me they get it. In fact, the one person that does get it, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, continues to be blasted by those that think the taxpayer is an unlimited well of money to be handed over to them.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are those of the writer and may not reflect those of Wunderlich Securities, Inc. or any of its affiliates. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

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