If this happens, the market could go higher

  • February 15, 2006
  • Gary Kaltbaum

Gary Kaltbaum
is an investment advisor with over 20 years experience, and a Fox News Channel
Business Contributor. Gary is the author of


The Investor’s Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the
host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investor’s Edge” heard on many
stations across the country. Gary is also
editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”…a weekly and monthly
technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. 

Sorry…no Dick Cheney jokes today. I did want to make note for all you
Seahawk fans that I just read that the back judge who threw the flag on that
assinine pass interference call that cost a touchdown…lives in Pittsburgh. Now
what is wrong with that picture? It’s like having Howard Dean umpire a baseball
game in which George Bush is coaching.

 

Lots to decipher today.

 

The DOW
(
DJX |
Quote |
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PowerRating) followed our script to a tee. In our last report, we told you
the DOW, in spite of many internal negatives was poised to break out its trading
range as a bunch of DOW names had great charts.   We mentioned T, BA, HON, PG,
AXP, UTX and VZ….and all participated in yesterday’s strong DOW move.

 

RETAIL is now getting a life. In fact, the RETAIL  index is now coming up the
right side of its base.

The SOX was weak all day. It hardly went green. Don’t start fretting this yet
 as the SOX came out of nowhere on its last run to the upside. I promise you if
the market is going higher, the SOX will have gas…and technically, the 560
level was a normal place to pull back as that was the high in Jan. 04 within 1
point.

BANKS came off of the morphine drip. There are still plenty of uglies like C and
BAC but now seeing some life in other names. WB and KEY have already moved
out. This is an important area.

OILS continue to get smacked around. We told you the group had put in decent
tops…and nothing we have seen so far changes our stance. We do want to tell
you that some names are now very extended and due to bounce. At this juncture,
for most, bounces are sellable as the latest move down looks like it is much
more than a normal correction.

 

Of the COMMODITIES, STEEL looks the best as names like SID, X, NUE seemed to
have pulled back nicely but not jumping just yet GOLD also feels like it is
losing its downside pressure…but I gather we will see some consolidation here.

 

The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 remain laggards. I am hearing many say that the market
cannot go much higher if these 2 major indices do not catch up. As usual, the
market will decide this. If the SOX gets going…I suspect these will follow to
some extent.

Gary Kaltbaum

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