Ignore The Dribble

October 9, 2002
Gary Kaltbaum

This is a rant.

I was listening to some buzzardheads on CNBC today.

Barton Biggs, a genius market strategist. said you should be buying stock and
not selling stock right now. Of course, he said that three times in the last
five months….to the tune of 1500 Dow points. I promise you he willÂ be
right…one day.Â Amazing that this man has been so wrong and CNBC continues to
give him a forum. And by the way, this same strategist missed most of the bull
market…and makes millions, to be wrong. I wouldn’t listen if he had next
week’s newspaper…today.

My big point is that CNBC is really worrying me now. They introduced him as
someone who is just turning bullish. They completely ignored that anyone
following this man’s advice would be selling their homes by now. What happened
to full and fair disclosure? Why the heck do they keep letting bozos like this
go to the well?

Bill Griffith also asked Mr. Biggs whether anyone could know what’s going to
happen in the market. Mr. Biggs said flat-out, “No!”
Then why the heck is he on TV when he admits he can’t interpret markets? I agree
Barton Biggs does not know anything aboutÂ the market….but I have a little
secret for Messrs. Biggs and Griffith…WE HAVE BEEN
INTERPRETING IT CORRECTLYÂ ALL BEAR MARKET LONG. It’s called technical
analysis…something they keep making fun of on CNBC. I guess I should not be so
upset. I have always been told that it is better to have a lot of doubters.

Mr. Biggs did attempt a little technical analysis by saying the
S&P 500
(
$SPX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) had not broken the July 24
lows and that it was a positive. Again, he misses the big picture. Obviously,
this man does not do much homework. Here is a list of “stuff” that has broken
the July lows. I will then let you decide whether the S&P 500 counts much at
this point.

Dow

Nasdaq

Nasdaq 100

S&P 600

S&P 400

Transports

Utilities

Russell 2000

Japan

Germany

France

Spain

Italy

How about these names that have broken July lows? Are you ready? These are in
order of market value:

There are another 750 names that have broken the July lows.
Now, you decide if the S&P 500 breaking the lows matters.

I will say that the Afghanistan market is up almost 50% this year. Darn, I
should have bought Afghan Telecom.

Then there is Abby Joseph Cohen who lowered her targets for the market today. I
can’t rant at her because she has taken over as the biggest comedy act on Wall
Street. It is almost pathetic at this point. This so-called guru missed the
worst bear market in 70 years and still says she has been right. Her lowered
price targets are still 44% from current levels. I definitely need to send her a broken
clock.

Defense remains your best friend. For one, the advance/decline figures are some
of the worst I have seen in ages. I am also still amazed by the complacency on
this latest drop. Yes, the market is oversold by many near-term
measurements…especially on price. So, maybe we get a bounce here. But lately,
intraday bounces have failed. The market was up nicely yesterday and failed
towards the close. I still believeÂ that this leg of the bear market only ends
with some sort of panic selloff. I still have not seen anything that looks like
panic. The worst thing for the market is this slow death that is going on.

Sorry for the rant. I am really a nice guy. If I had friends, they would tell
you so. The reason for the rant is because there have been trillions of dollars
lost by good people because they listened to a lot of this crapola.

I have had a 65 year-old woman walk into my office with an account that went
from 750k to 65k and her husband did not know. She was in tears.

I have had a man in my office who turned 500k into $3 million and let it drop
back to 250k. He sees a psychologist twice a week.

I had a meeting with Lucent retirees…when the stock was still $20…all in
anticipation of it going back up. I hate to see their faces now.

I met with many people who had to come out of retirement because of all their
losses.

I could continue. The list goes on and on. I am just determined to educate and
teach so this does not have to happen to any of you. You must ignore the
dribbling opinions and always let the market be your guide. You must always be
cognizant of keeping your capital. You must understand that the market is not a
place that hands you over money forever. In fact, it is out to take you down.Â

Heading for the Bahamas tomorrow to calm down.

Gary

Ignore The Dribble

BUY THE FEAR, SELL THE GREED

Quick Links

Company Info

Contact

Company Resources