Impressive Rise In Two Metals

Technical Outlook

#BONDS (JUN) 3/24/2004: The market has a slightly
positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Near-term resistance for
bonds is at 116.12 and then again at 116.18, while swing support hits at 115.23
and below there at 115.08. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a
close over the 9-bar moving average. A bullish signal was given with an upside
crossover of the daily stochastics. The next upside objective is 116.18.

T-NOTES(JUN) The daily stochastics gave a bullish
indicator with a crossover up. The near-term upside objective is at 116.17. It
is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing
number. The major trend is down with the cross over back below the 40-day moving
average. Near-term resistance for the T-Notes is at 116.13 and then again at
116.17, while swing support hits at 116.02 and below there at 115.26. The
market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.

 

STOCK INDICES RECAP

3/23/2004

The stock market mounted a temporary technical
bounce early Tuesday but then sagged into mid session. The fact that Middle East
tensions continue to rage out of control seemed to undermine sentiment and leave
the potential for violence on the minds of most traders. The stock market also
noticed the recovery in energy prices after some near term weakness and with the
Energy Secretary reconfirming the Administrations desire to continue filling the
SPR that sent a signal that near term energy supplies were going to remain
tight. The trade doesn’t seem to be overly concerned about the Durable goods
report due out Wednesday but in the current condition the stock market can ill
afford to see a weaker than expected durable goods reading.

Technical Outlook

#S&P500 (JUN) 3/24/2004: It is a slightly
negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. Underlying support
comes in at 1085.75 and 1082.53, with overhead resistance at 1096.25 and
1103.53. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term
indicator for trend. Momentum studies are still bearish, but are now at oversold
levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The next downside
objective is now at 1082.53. Some caution in pressing the downside is warranted
with the RSI under 30.

S&P E-Mini (JUN): Momentum studies are declining,
but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is 1082.50. It is a
slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing
number. Near-term resistance for the S&P Mini is at 1096.25 and then again at
1103.50, while swing support hits at 1085.75 and below there at 1082.50. The
market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term
trend remains negative. The 9-day RSI under 30 indicates the market is
approaching oversold levels.

NASDAQ (JUN) The market could take on a defensive
posture with the daily closing price reversal down. A negative signal for trend
short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The close below
the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. The market should run into
resistance at 1385.00 and above there at 1404.00 with support at 1358.00 and
1350.00. The market is approaching over sold levels on an RSI reading under 30.
Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be
drying up soon. The next downside objective is 1350.00.

MINI DOW (MAR) The close below the 9-day moving
average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market should run into
resistance at 10072 and above there at 10130 with support at 9987 and 9960.
Momentum studies are still bearish, but are now at oversold levels and will tend
to support reversal action if it occurs. The next downside target is now at
9960. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing
pivot. Some caution in pressing the downside is warranted with the RSI under 30.

 

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

3/23/2004

The Dollar and Euro gave off almost nothing
significant on their trends in the action Tuesday. We suspect that the Dollar
did manage to get some light buying interest off those expecting the durable
goods report to show a rise on Wednesday morning. The ECB might have given the
euro some support Tuesday with suggestions that the current exchange rate was
not limiting investment in the Euro zone and that would seem to clear the way
for more gains in the Euro. However, we suspect that the economic differential
is set to favor the Dollar in the near term especially if the US numbers on
Wednesday set a better macro economic tone for the Dollar.

Technical Outlook

#CURRENCIES 3/24/2004: YEN (JUN): A positive
signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average.
The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price
reversal down. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the
swing pivot. Swing resistance is targeted at 94.11 and above there at 94.36,
with the yen finding support around 93.68 and below there at 93.50. Rising
stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The next upside
objective is 94.36. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over
70.

EURO (JUN): Momentum studies are rising from
mid-range which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are
penetrated. The near-term upside target is at 1.2366. The defensive setup, with
the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness. Swing
support for the Euro comes in at 1.2212, with overhead resistance at 1.2366. The
close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for
trend. The close below the 40-day moving average is an indication the
longer-term trend is down. More selling pressure is likely given yesterday’s gap
lower price action on the day session chart.

 

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

3/23/2004

The gold and silver market traded on both sides
of unchanged but then managed to rise impressively in the mid afternoon trade.
While the Dollar did trickle lower late in the session the gold and silver rally
seemed to take place without the direct influence of the Dollar. With
Palestinians vowing revenge for the death of the Hamas founder it would seem
that flight to quality interest in the precious metals is set to continue.

Technical Outlook

#P-METALS 3/24/2004: SILVER (MAY): The market
setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing
resistance. Initial support for silver is at 763.6 and below there at 753.3 with
resistance likely at 769.2 and 778.1. A positive signal for trend short-term was
given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. Rising stochastics at overbought
levels warrant some caution for bulls. The next upside objective is 769.2. The
market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The outside day up
is somewhat positive. The daily closing price reversal up is a positive
indicator that could support higher prices.

GOLD (JUN): Support for gold today comes in near
415.00, while resistance is pegged at 425.40. Daily stochastics have risen into
overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs.
The near-term upside target is at 425.40. Market positioning is positive with
the close over the 1st swing resistance. The close above the 9-day moving
average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market is becoming
somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70.

 

COPPER MARKET RECAP

3/23/2004

The copper market posted a very wild session with
an unchanged opening; a 300-point break off the high and then a recovery back
toward minimally lower levels into the close. The Press was suggesting that some
funds were attempting to bank long profits and that could rob the market of
upcoming speculative buying fuel. It would seem that the equity market remains
on the ropes and that should keep profit taking interest among the funds high in
the coming sessions.

 

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

3/23/2004

With the DOE suggesting that the SPR was not a
price manipulation tool the energy complex seemed to pick up buying interest.
Even after a major refining company CEO suggested that the refilling of the SPR
should stop the trade was set on the idea that the US government would continue
to siphon off a critical portion of the available monthly supply of crude oil.
The refinery company executive actually suggested that the government use the
SPR to deflate some of the speculative fervor in the market place. In short, the
ongoing concern being expressed by the EIA and other key market players simply
turned on the speculative buying interest in gasoline.

Technical Outlook

#ENERGIES 3/24/2004: CRUDE OIL (MAY): Market
positioning is positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. Support
for crude is keyed on 36.95 and below there at 36.28, with resistance pegged at
37.95 and 38.28. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive
short-term indicator for trend. The crossover up in the daily stochastics is a
bullish signal. The near-term upside target is at 38.28. Short-term indicators
suggest buying pullbacks today.

UNLEADED GAS (MAY): Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The next upside objective is
117.40. The market setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the
1st swing resistance. Resistance today is at 117.40, while support should be
found around 110.30. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close
over the 9-bar moving average.

HEATING OIL (MAY): Market positioning is positive
with the close over the 1st swing resistance. Heating oil should encounter
support around 88.38, with resistance is at 95.38. Short-term indicators suggest
buying pullbacks today. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive
short-term indicator for trend. The crossover up in the daily stochastics is a
bullish signal. The near-term upside target is at 95.38.

 

CORN MARKET RECAP

3/23/2004

Weakness in the other grains helped to pull
futures lower as there was a lack of new buying interest in corn after hitting
new highs for 6 sessions in a row. Ideas that the market is overbought after
recent strong gains and a softer cash market this morning on talk of increased
producer selling are factors which contributed to light long liquidation
selling. In addition, the corn market has followed soybeans closely recently and
weakness in the soybean market leaves less urgency for corn to hold onto all of
the recent gains. South Korea bought 52,500 tons of optional origin corn
overnight and the country seeks 105,000 tons of optional origin corn overnight
tonight. Country basis bids were 1-2 cents lower on talk of increased producer
movement on the recent rally. Support levels for May corn come in at 312 3/4 and
311 with resistance at 318 and 324 3/4.

Technical Outlook

#CORN (MAY) 3/24/2004: Daily stochastics have
risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The near-term upside target is at 318 2/4. The market setup is somewhat
negative with the close under the 1st swing support. Market resistance comes in
at 318 2/4 today, with support at 313 2/4. The close above the 9-day moving
average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market is becoming
somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70.

 

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

3/23/2004

The market weakness was triggered by light
speculative selling thought to be profit-taking after recent strong gains.
Tightness in the domestic market and production and shipping concerns in Brazil
helped to provide underlying support on the break. The 5th day of a full strike
of workers and port operators at Paranagua, Brazil is seen as a potentially
bullish factor if the strike continues as the freshly harvested crop seems to be
backing-up at the port which has halted the movement onto the world market.
While leaders of the Unions are trying to resolve the dispute, the line-up of
trucks some how dropped to near 40 miles today from near 60 miles yesterday. The
governor of the Parana State is expected to meet with the strikers late today.
With Relative Strength Indicators registered over 90, traders see the soybean
market as extremely overbought. Dry weather in Brazil is seen as promoting
active harvest in the northern areas but the dry weather may still be stressing
late planted beans in the southern areas and double-crop soybeans. Traders
believe that near 20-25% of the crop has yet to reach maturity. Minor support
levels for May soybeans come in at 10.28 3/4 and 10.18 3/4 with resistance at
10.55, 10.62 and 10.76 1/2. May Meal support levels come in at 320.60 and 316.30
with 329 and 341.60 as next resistance. May Oil support comes in at 34.55, 34.35
and 33.79 with resistance at 35.18 and 36.31. South Korea passed on their tender
to buy 210,000 tons of US soybeans with traders citing high prices as the
reason.

Technical Outlook

#SOYBEANS (MAY) 03/24/04 The market tilt is
slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next area of resistance is
around 1057 2/4 and 1061 1/4, while 1st support hits today at 1046 2/4 and below
there at 1039 1/4. The market’s close on the 9-day moving average is neutral.
Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The next
upside objective is 1061 1/4. The market is approaching overbought levels with
an RSI over 70.

MEAL (MAY): Daily stochastics have risen into
overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs.
The near-term upside target is at 329.2. First resistance comes in at 327.6,
with support at 323.5. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive
short-term indicator for trend. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat
positive setup. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is
over 70.

BEAN OIL (MAY): A positive signal for trend
short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. Rising
stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The next upside
objective is 35.29. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower
than the pivot swing number. Daily swing resistance is found at 35.11 and above
there at 35.29. Support should be encountered at 34.49 and 34.05.

 

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

3/23/2004

Talk of the overbought condition of the market
and improving crop conditions for the Kansas wheat crop for the week ending
Sunday, March 21st helped to drive the market lower and weakness in the other
grain markets added to the bearish tone. The buying trend of the fund traders
(near 20,000 contracts yesterday) is seen as a potential bullish force ahead.
The next key resistance level for the nearby futures comes in at the September
2002 highs at 434. If achieved, traders will eye the April 1997 highs at 449.
July wheat minor support levels come in at 418, 415 1/4 and 412 1/2 with first
major support back at 404. Traders are hopeful that the US will receive a good
portion of the United Nations World Food Program tender for 630,000 tonnes of
wheat for Iraq. South Korea bought 25,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat
overnight. Jordon seeks 100,000 tons of wheat and Algeria tenders to buy 50,000
tons. Kansas crops rated in good to excellent condition improved to 42% from 32%
last week. In addition, crops rated poor to very poor came in at 28% from 36%
last week. Subsoil moisture in the state is still rated with 17% of the state
very short and 28% short. This would indicate that timely rains will be
necessary in order to see crop conditions improve further. A warm and mostly dry
outlook into next week may help offset the improving crop condition trend.
Producer selling emerged on the rally and basis levels weakened at most
locations with active movement noted at many terminals. Traders seem a bit
nervous that the surge higher in prices could cut-off recent good demand as end
users may back away and wait for lower prices.

Technical Outlook

#WHEAT (MAY) 3/24/2004: The market tilt is
slightly negative with the close under the pivot. Expect near-term support
around 408 and below there at 405, with resistance levels at 418 and 425 2/4. A
positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving
average. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls.
The next upside objective is 425 2/4.

 

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

3/23/2004

April cattle moved sharply lower on the session
before finding some support from the huge discount to the cash market. June
cattle continued to collapse late in the session while April found support with
trade expectations for increasing supplies ahead as the bearish force.
Boxed-beef cut-out values were mixed with choice 600-750 pound cuts down 92
cents to $141.49 as compared with $144.60 last week at this time. Talk that cash
might trade only $85.00 of lower this week after trading $87.00 late last week
added to the bearish tone. The drop in packer profit margins along with
declining beef prices along with the high open interest in futures are factors
which are seen as bearish developments for cash trade in the weeks ahead.

Technical Outlook

#CATTLE (JUN) 3/24/2004: Momentum studies
trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are
broken. The next downside objective is 71.87. There could be some early pressure
today given the market’s negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing
support. Support should be encountered at 72.50 and below there at 71.87. Market
resistance is at 74.67 and then again at 76.22. A negative signal for trend
short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average.

 

LEAN HOGS RECAP

3/23/2004

After opening near unchanged and attempting a
minor bounce in the morning session, April hogs moved moderately lower on the
session as follow-through technical selling from the reversal on Monday emerged
to pressure the market. Cash hogs were mixed with Peoria .50 higher and
locations in the western cornbelt lower. Talk that packers may slow slaughter in
an attempt to support pork values was seen as mixed with some believing the
maneuver could support the market as long as producers are current with
marketings and others believing that the maneuver might back-fire if hogs are
backed-up in the country and weights become a bigger factor. Bellies managed to
recover part of yesterday’s hefty losses and some strength in bellies and a lack
of follow-through selling in hogs contributed to the late rally and higher close
for the hog market.

Technical Outlook

#HOGS (JUN) 3/24/2004: It is a slightly negative
indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. Resistance levels comes in
at 72.02 and 72.45 today, while support is around 70.87 and then 70.17. The
upside daily closing price reversal gives the market a bullish tilt. The close
above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend.
Momentum studies trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator
and would tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside target is now
at 70.17.

 

COCOA MARKET RECAP

3/23/2004

Surprisingly talk of renewed violence at the
Ivory Coast failed to spark prices higher on the session and that could be
because that story was behind the prior days action. It would seem that a number
of traders are confident that the $1,500 level will hold prices down but that
thin layer of resistance will mean nothing if the rebel do end up attacking as
rumored in the Press. It should be noted that the rebel leader accused of the
potential attack rumor denies there is any plan to attack.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (MAY) 03/24/04 The market tilt is slightly
negative with the close under the pivot. Cocoa should run into resistance at
1488 and above there at 1500 with support at 1470 and 1464. Positive momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The next
upside target is 1500.00.

 

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

3/23/2004

The lack of new buying from fund traders in
coffee and many other commodity markets helped to pressure futures and July
coffee closed 90 lower on the session. Talk of a potential significant world
production surplus for the coming season (04/05) helped to trigger some light
long liquidation selling. London futures continue to hover near the January lows
while New York futures have found underlying support from the relentless buying
from fund traders. Weather looks favorable for the Brazil new crop and US
exchange stocks continue to rise. Without improving fundamentals, speculative
long liquidation could trigger a significant break soon.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (MAY) 3/24/04 The close below the 1st
swing support could weigh on the market. Negative momentum studies in the
neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside
objective is now at 74.75. The Coffee contract should run into resistance at
77.30 and above there at 78.35 with support at 75.5 and 74.75. The market’s
short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving
average. Daily studies pointing down suggests selling minor rallies.

 

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

3/23/2004

May sugar surged higher and penetrated
psychological resistance at the 7.00 level as strong gains in London before the
New York opening helped to support. Funds have been aggressive buyers on the
rally and traders believe the speculative net long position could be near record
highs. Talk that the lower crop in Thailand this year could help support prices
helped to push futures higher with trade estimates down near 65 million tons for
the cane crop as compared with 74.1 million tons last year. The 5th day of the
port strike in Brazil is helping to provide support as well but the ports are
mostly clogged with freshly harvested soybeans and corn. Rising open interest
and a solid technical trend are supportive factors.

Technical Outlook

#SUGAR (MAY) 3/24/2004: Follow through buying
looks likely if the market can hold yesterday’s gap on the day session chart.
There could be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd
swing resistance. Swing resistance comes in at 7.12, with support found at 6.86.
The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for
trend. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to
support reversal action if it occurs. The near-term upside target is at 7.12.
The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70.

 

COTTON MARKET RECAP

3/23/2004

The market opened lower and into the gap area but
failed to find new buying support and futures collapsed on the session as
speculators sold aggressively. The chart failed on Monday and a lack of new
buying support on a pullback to the first support level kept the market in a
long liquidation mode for much of the session. Weakness in the soybeans and a
focus on the potential for a large world crop for the coming year helped to
pressure the market and a long liquidation sell-off in many commodity markets
contributed to the weakness.

Technical Outlook

#COTTON (MAY) 3/24/2004: A negative signal for
trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. There
could be some early pressure today given the market’s negative setup with the
close below the 2nd swing support. Next resistance area comes in at 66.06 and
then again at 67.73, while support is targeted at 63.66 and 62.93. Stochastics
are at mid-range, but trending higher which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The next upside objective is 67.73.