Insane Market Action
Gary Kaltbaum is an investment adviser with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”… a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
I receive tons of email each day….many from other countries around the world. I have received emails from Thailand, Australia, Vietnam, all over Europe, Canada, Japan…you name it…but the following email left me humbled and speechless. It speaks for itself…and tells me all the hours and all the hard work has paid off.
Gary,
Every now and then, you mention how far away your readers are. Well, I’ll put my hat in the ring for the long distance dedication – dedication to your show that is. I download the podcast from Kabul, Afghanistan. Thought you would get a kick out of that.
Been with you since the late 90s when you were on the station in Jacksonville – and have been with you ever since as technology has allowed. You had me hooked during the tech bubble ten years ago with comments like, “Ask Jeeves … I don’t know, you Ask Jeeves. This company has no … ” and your spot on call with your concerns the day after the AOL merger with Time Warner.
I was at 50% cash this time last year, and switched to 85% cash in the Spring. If I stopped trying to think I was more clever than you, I would be in 100% by now – but sometimes I need to be taught lessons about pride over and over again.
Hope all is well with you and yours as we move towards the Holiday Season – and when I retire after a bit over two decades in the Navy and move back to Jacksonville this summer, I look forward to listening to you in real time.
Cheers,
Greg Harris
Commander, US Navy
Headquarters, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) – Kabul, Afghanistan
PS: Why am I looking forward to retirement? One reason is that my last year on active duty I did not have my nest egg fully invested. I am at peace and waiting for that slow fat one coming down the middle …
I should stop this report right there but can’t…lots going on. First off, to give you a good idea how insane this market has been, let’s just go through last week’s action…using the DOW.
The DOW closed on Friday, November 7th at 8944. By Monday (11/10) at 9:50 a.m. ET, it was up 200 points to 9144. Don’t blink! At 3:30 pm ET, the DOW had dropped to 8761…an almost 400 point drop…of course, you had to have a 110 point ramp in the last 10 minutes on Monday…with a close of 8871.
The market gapped down on Tuesday (11/11) hitting an 8561 low, down 210 points…at 1:50 pm ET, the DOW stood at 8616…by 2:40 pm ET, the DOW was at 8868 a 252 point romp in an hour…by 3:40 pm ET, back to 8600, a 268 point drop in the next hour…rallied 141 points in the next 10 minutes…before closing at 8694.
Wednesday (11/12) was trend down with the DOW down 412 points with only a 100 point rally midday…closing at 8283. Dizzy yet? Don’t blink!
By 10:30 am ET Thursday (11/13), the DOW hit 8411 up about 128 points. Don’t blink! By 1:00 pm ET, the DOW had plunged to 7966…a 445 point drop in 150 minutes. Don’t blink. In another over the top romp, the DOW soared 904 points to 8870 before settling at 8835 at the close. One would have thought that was enough of the nonsense.
Heading into Friday (11/14), many became giddy. After all, the DOW held support once again while every other major index broke below support and reversed on huge volume. Typically, that is a bullish occurrence…typically. My problem was that everyone had again called the low, the bottom, capitulation and all those overused, nauseating words we have been hearing all the way down. So what happens?
The DOW plunged on Friday 363 points up to 12:20 pm ET. For the next hour, the DOW traded in a “small” 100 point range with 8494 being hit at 1:20 pm ET. Don’t blink! By 3 pm ET, the DOW rallied all the way up to 8922, a measly 426 points…which caused many to get lathered up for another good reversal day. Don’t blink! In a final amazing cap to the week, the DOW dropped from 8919 at 3:20 pm ET to 8470, a 449 point drop before closing at 8497…219 of those points occurred in 7 minutes.
Many pundits have come up with all kinds of reasons for this ridiculous action. They say hedge funds redemptions, continuing news on the financial crisis…and I am even hearing some blaming Obama. As much as I don’t like any of Obama’s proposals, last I looked, he is not president yet.
All I know is that it is tough to have any edge at all. One cannot trust the next 30 minutes, let alone the whole day. We are seeing percentage moves in a day that normally occur in a year. I am simply taking my time as the bigger picture remains the same. I do believe we are eventually going to get a 50-75% rally back up in this longer-term bear market that I started outlining back in 2001. I just don’t know from where nor do I know when it starts.
I do know that I have to stay tough and not shy away when the market does ultimately turn. Right now, these moves are laying waste to everyone’s confidence. There have been so many fits and starts that many don’t want to play this game anymore…and I don’t blame them. But there will be a point where the sellers do dry up…and the buyers do bid up. Many will be afraid of their own shadow. I will be trying to probe. If things start to work, I will add. This second, the good news is that the lows have held again. As long as the lows continue to hold, bases can form. If the lows do not hold, we will have to continue to wait it out.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are those of the writer and may not reflect those of Wunderlich Securities, Inc. or any of its affiliates. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.