Intel Friday, Again
Yesterday’s
futures rollover was choppy
while the Dow and OSX bumped up for the fifth straight day. Actually, the Dow,
which has many of the big Basics, didn’t tell the full story of the recent
influx of the Generals’ money into these stocks. The XLBs which is the Basic
sector vehicle, has closed higher for nine straight days and has given us
excellent trades and has given us four straight up days in the Semis and five
straight ups in the Oil Services.
On the upside, the S&P
500 is an easy read. In order to rally to that 1320-1340 zone, it must trade
above 1267.42 and then 1272.76 which are the next two acceleration points. It
bumped up twice by noon yesterday, hitting 1266.50, declining to 1257.83, then
rallied back to 1266.22, declined to 1257.60, then gave you an RST bottom entry
above 1258.26 and rallied to 1265.34, closing at 1264.74. For
those of you who took the 1,2,3 entry, it was above 1260. The 20-day EMA is also
at 1272.48.
With this morning starting
south due to
(
INTC |
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PowerRating), the two retracement zones I am interested in are at
1235 and 1226. This will be the second Intel Friday and I hope this one is as
profitable as the last, as we get to fade the emotion. For those of you who have
my printed material from the seminars, you can see how many of the momentum
stocks stretched to their extreme volatility bands on the last Intel
announcement.Â
The sequence on INTC was:
They announced last night. Then market makers then hit bids in Instinet for
other key momentum stocks in anticipation of emotional selling today from the
retail and some money managers. If it looks more dismal this morning, they will
hit some more stocks in Instinet to extract an even bigger discount on the open.
FYI, I am doing this pre-Instinet trading. Their only risk is that some
overriding good news comes out and they would have to scramble and cover.Â
So for this morning I
suggest you look to Fading The Open and Volatility Bands and then Trap Doors.
After that, we will see what the Generals have in store for us regarding the
next intraday trend. We caught some good trends yesterday in the capital goods
stocks, oil service stocks and basics along with
(
IP |
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PowerRating),
(
DOW |
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PowerRating) and
(
BA |
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PowerRating). Also,
(
COST |
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PowerRating) was
the best of the litter yesterday, running 3 points after entry.Â
The financials started out
green, but then faded even though the XLFs gave early entry along with
(
STI |
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PowerRating)
and
(
MWD |
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PowerRating) which ran 2 points after an opening reversal before fading — it
was up 15% in four days after bouncing off a big head and shoulder pattern
neckline at 60.
(
BSC |
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News |
PowerRating) didn’t recross the 200-day EMA and closed in the
bottom of the range on an outside bar, setting up a short for today if you get
trade-through entry.
Â
|
(June
|
||
|
Fair Value
|
Buy
|
Sell
|
|
14.25
|
.15.55Â |
 12.95Â
|
Pattern
Setups
Because of all the fading
of volatility bands and trap doors, I would focus on the Semis and the ones I
recommend you look at are
(
AMD |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
AMAT |
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News |
PowerRating),
(
NVLS |
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News |
PowerRating),
(
NVDA |
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News |
PowerRating),
(
KLAC |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MU |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MXIM |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
TER |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating). If they
persist on coming back for the basics and some of the bigger stocks, look at
(
JNJ |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BA |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
ROK |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
DOW |
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News |
PowerRating),
(
MMM |
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News |
PowerRating) and not to forget the oil service stocks from yesterday if
they want to come back for those as a defensive measure.
On the short side,
concentrate on the
(
QQQ |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s and also any of the Chosen Ones that retrace back to
their EMAs if they still remain above their open and previous close.
 Have a good trading
day.
