Interest Rate Hawk Alert: FOMC Minutes

The Event:

At 2:00 PM EST on Tuesday, April 6th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases the minutes of its last meeting.


This critical economic release occurs 8 times per year, usually around 3 weeks after the Fed Funds rate is revealed. It is important for Forex traders since it details the exact sentiment at the meeting leading to the rate decision.  Knowing the “behind the scenes” activity and thought processes of the various governors sheds light on potential future changes. Traders can find the minutes posted here.

Trader Take:

It appears that the discount rate increase cycle has begun. This is a strong sign of potential additional rate increases. The canary in the coal mine, so to speak. Right now the USD based pairs are shaking out from the positive NFP numbers. Although they missed the overly optimistic estimates, it was the best reading in 3 years and only the second positive number in over 2 years. Be prepared for interest hawkish rhetoric, however slight, from the minutes.

David Goodboy is Vice President of Business Development for a New York City based multi-strategy fund.

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