Just One Or Two Trades Like This Each Day…
Let’s keep this short and simple today. The
market (S&P futures that is) is approaching yet another “key” technical
level. However, do not expect a great deal of fanfare either way. Trading
remains very subdued. There was one decent long setup, albeit it was a longer
term-trade, not HVT. The trade occurred around 9:54 AM EST. Take a look at the
charts below:
Notice how on both charts, the technical picture is almost identical?
- Both the S&Ps and the stock (PG) are in a downtrend as indicated by the
20-period EMA.Â
- Both have rallied back toward their 20-period EMAs.
Â
- Both are showing an overbought stochastic
No real big circus and hooting and hollering over this trade, in fact it was
my last HVT trade for the morning, standard
procedure lately. One thing is for sure, one or two trades like this each day
until the fatigue of this market is worked off does one very important thing, it
puts points on the board. Now the remainder of the day can be spent patiently
waiting for other setups. You banked your money, now protect it.
You can see by looking at the chart above that not only is the current rally,
which began on 2/13, incredibly feeble when compared to the other bear market
rallies we have had, it is currently sitting above key Fibonacci support at
829.8 and 824.17. A break of the these levels would be bad news for the bulls,
but should invite in some decent trading for a short period as fairy tales of
new bull markets come crashing down….yet again. A target of 796 is possible
under this scenario.
At 10:00 AM EST the Consumer Confidence
number will be released. The consensus is for 77, any deviation, especially a
number that comes in significantly higher should offer a great
HVT setup. Naturally a big downside surprise
would also offer a good setup, but given the tone of the market, it may just
take that in stride. Always seek out the “surprise” when numbers are released.
Key Technical
Numbers (futures):
S&Ps |
Nasdaq |
| 886 | 996 |
| 874 | 987 |
| **862** | 983 |
| 852 | 974 |
| **842-45** | 966 |
| **837** | 957 |
| 830 | *941* |
| 819 | *932-33* |
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As always, feel free to send me your comments and
questions.
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