Kevin Haggerty’s Commentary for 10/13/17
The SPX made an RST monthly high in 5/2015 at 2135 with entry below the 6/2015 monthly low close at 2063 versus the long-term 8.6-year cycle date of 2015.75 and declined -15% before making a double bottom low at 1812 and 1810 in Jan and Feb 2016. The “Feds” ponzi scheme index has since advanced + 41.3% to a 2558 high, including the surprise election of President Trump.
The index has had only had a 3-month -5% pullback from the 8/2016 2194 high to 2084, followed by a sprint to new highs. The SPX is now 21 months (Fib) since the double bottom, and 10/11/17 is 3141 days (Pi 3.146) from the 3/6/09 667 bear market low which was a -57% decline. Did you buy and hold? I have a Brooklyn bridge for you cheap, also.
There hasn’t been an SPX close below its 3-month EMA since 10/2016, and not below the 12 month since the double bottom low at 1812/1810. Both MA’s are in a straight uptrend with no negative divergence (yet). The monthly RSI is 96.6 which is a 20-year high if not an all-time high, but I don’t have my historic charts as I do this. Also, there is no negative monthly RSI divergence (yet).
Thanksgiving is an 8.6-year cycle date, which is 2017.9, so there is significant time symmetry but no technical divergences giving early warning as “melt up” is the primary theme. However, I will still cut back long-term equity positions and let the “crowd” play that game while “banking” significant gains following the “huge” post election run. There had better be a significant tax cut and a solution to the disaster called “Obama-care” or else the SPX knife down will be fast and furious
The Nifty50 driving the market in the early 70`s has become the Fab5 [AAPL, MSFT, FB, GOOG, AMZN] so I would say that game is near sunset. The best daytrading activity remains the 1st hour and the Volatility Bands the most effective tool primarily when confirmed by price patterns. I will be doing a manual on VB`s, with Price Patterns and will inform when ready.