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You are here: Home / Stocks / Commentary / Kevin Haggerty’s Commentary for 10/13/17

Kevin Haggerty’s Commentary for 10/13/17

October 13, 2017 by Kevin Haggerty

The SPX made an RST monthly high in 5/2015 at 2135 with entry below the 6/2015 monthly low close at 2063 versus the long-term 8.6-year cycle date of 2015.75 and declined -15% before making a double bottom low at 1812 and 1810 in Jan and Feb 2016. The “Feds” ponzi scheme index has since advanced + 41.3% to a 2558 high, including the surprise election of President Trump.

The index has had only had a 3-month -5% pullback from the 8/2016 2194 high to 2084, followed by a sprint to new highs. The SPX is now 21 months (Fib) since the double bottom, and 10/11/17 is 3141 days (Pi 3.146) from the 3/6/09 667 bear market low which was a -57% decline. Did you buy and hold? I have a Brooklyn bridge for you cheap, also.

There hasn’t been an SPX close below its 3-month EMA since 10/2016, and not below the 12 month since the double bottom low at 1812/1810. Both MA’s are in a straight uptrend with no negative divergence (yet). The monthly RSI is 96.6 which is a 20-year high if not an all-time high, but I don’t have my historic charts as I do this. Also, there is no negative monthly RSI divergence (yet).

Thanksgiving is an 8.6-year cycle date, which is 2017.9, so there is significant time symmetry but no technical divergences giving early warning as “melt up” is the primary theme. However, I will still cut back long-term equity positions and let the “crowd” play that game while “banking” significant gains following the “huge” post election run. There had better be a significant tax cut and a solution to the disaster called “Obama-care” or else the SPX knife down will be fast and furious

The Nifty50 driving the market in the early 70`s has become the Fab5 [AAPL, MSFT, FB, GOOG, AMZN] so I would say that game is near sunset. The best daytrading activity remains the 1st hour and the Volatility Bands the most effective tool primarily when confirmed by price patterns. I will be doing a manual on VB`s, with Price Patterns and will inform when ready.

Kevin Haggerty

Filed Under: Commentary, Day Trading, Recent, SPY, Volatility Tagged With: Day Trading, Fab5, Fibonnaci, Pi, RSI, SPX, SPY, Stocks

About Kevin Haggerty

From 1990 to 1997, Kevin Haggerty served as Senior Vice President for Equity Trading at Fidelity Capital Markets, Boston, a division of Fidelity Investments. He was responsible for all U.S. institutional Listed, OTC and Option trading in addition to all major Exchange Floor Executions. For a free trial to Kevin’s Daily Trading Report, please click here.

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