Lookout for the FOMC minutes later today
Monday’s session finished mostly
unchanged, but showed continued weakness in between the bells. A quick test of
Friday highs soon sold off to and/or below Friday lows before recovering to
nearly par. With all of the pending price action catalysts directly ahead, it
may very well be the last session that closes unchanged this week.
ES (+$50 per index point)
S&P 500 futures lifted into R1 and Friday
high’s dual resistance, then sold off below S1 and likewise Friday lows. The
lift back to unchanged at the close posts another “doji” session of indecision.
Highly profitable swing lower move in the
middle, some early chop and late-day reversal action capped the day.
ER
(+$100 per index point)
Russell 2000 futures also wedged thru a
sideways roll before the modest break lower midday. Sideways roll along Friday
lows and S1 value dual support soon squeezed back to where they opened at the
close. Very tradable drop, for sure. Also a couple of points to be gleaned in
the final hour pop as well.
ES (+$50 per index point)
Daily chart of the S&P shows continued weakness
at 50dma and 62% resistance. As we noted in here yesterday, 1300 would now be
modest resistance and it marked the session high on Monday. Until they close
well above 1300 on a daily chart basis, downside has the continual nod.
ER
(+$100 per index point)
Russell 2000 held an inside day, closing on top
of support and holding high ground at the end. Until this one closes a daily
candle/bar below 740, bullish bias persists.
Summation
Market view remains at a point of critical decision. Big caps, techs and semis
look weak to bearish. Small caps, transports and a few other remain 100%
bullish. This temporary divergence is just that… temporary. The picture will
clear sooner than later.
As for today, treat it like a quasi-FOMC event.
The past three or four FOMC minutes release events have brought greater price
movement in stock indexes and FX markets than the FOMC rate decisions did. Go
figure! Expect morning movement, probable midday lull and possible afternoon
explosion past 2:00pm EST if the knee-jerkers interpret Fed speak in what they
deem to be favorable language.
Trade To Win
Austin P
(Online video clip
tutorials…
open access)
Austin Passamonte is a full-time
professional trader who specializes in E-mini stock index futures, equity
options and commodity markets.
Mr. Passamonte’s trading approach uses proprietary chart patterns found on an
intraday basis. Austin trades privately in the Finger Lakes region of New York.