Loonie Parity & The Core Retail Sales

The Event:

At 8:30AM EST on Friday, March 19th Statistics Canada releases the Core Retail Sales figure.


This is a monthly release that tracks the changes in retail sales prices across the spectrum excluding auto.mobiles. It is released about 50 days after the end of each month, so it’s seriously lagging. However, the release is considered critical to Forex traders since retail prices are the primary gauge of consumer inflation. Autos are removed since they account for 20% of the Retail Sales and add much volatility to the number.

Trader Take:

The USD/CAD has been in a serious downtrend almost reaching parity with the USD. This figure is forecast to be 0.5% which is just 0.01% higher than last release. I don’t expect much reaction in the pair, but USD parity is very close. It will be interesting to see what volatility occurs should parity be reached or superseded.

David Goodboy is Vice President of Business Development for a New York City based multi-strategy fund.

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