Mastering the Art of Tape Reading, Part 2
In the first part of this series, I reviewed a few basic principles of tape reading. Now I want to discuss some of lessons I have learned throughout my years of trading that I think you will find helpful when analyzing the tape.
Which stocks are best to trade?
I have received this question many times; I only trade the most volatile stocks of the day. These stocks are the ones which will provide you with strong volume and large interest from the public. They also provide strong and fast moves, resulting in larger profits. Remember, we need to see speed in the tape and that requires a stock with public interest.
Does the Tape Work Better During Specific Times of the Day?
In my experience, the answer to this question is YES. I typically only trade the first 2 hours of the day. This is when the most volatility is present in the market and also when most of the trending moves are made. Typically, lunchtime becomes very choppy and has a different group of traders who are buying or selling for different reasons than in the first hour. I am not ruling out trading after lunchtime; however, my results have been less than stellar when I attempted to do so.
Tape Reading with Level 2
The level 2 window provides the trader with an edge. It will show you the sizes of the orders in the market makers book. While the market makers can play games with the level 2 in order to fool traders, in general you want to see high bid sizes and low ask sizes when you go long. On the flip side, you want to see low bid sizes and high ask sizes when you go short or sell out of a stock. Again, it’s not foolproof but it adds to the odds of your trading winning.
Exiting a Trade
This is probably the most difficult part of the trade for most traders. Tape reading helps me get out of the trade by looking for imbalances. When I see a stock moving sharply in one direction, I will immediately look to the tape to offer clues as to when the brake pads will be applied. Again, this skill will take practice to develop. If your short a stock, keep an eye out for the bid side getting heavy and the bid/ask spread widening. This could be a tell tale sign that the juice has been used up.
Bid/Ask Spread at Key Levels
Make sure the stock does not have large bid/ask spreads as it approaches your entry points. You will not have much time to place your trade, and if you are trading a volatile stock, you most likely will have to execute the orders at market. Large spreads tell me two things: first, your risk increases significantly when the spread increases. Why? Because most times you will have trouble getting out of a stock with a large spread using limit orders and this can turn a small loss into a big one quite quickly. Secondly, it tells me that there is not that much interest in the stock. If there was, the spreads would narrow and both sides would come as close as possible.
Extremely High Volume Stocks
There is trading high volume and then there is trading extremely high volume. I try and stay away from stocks that trade, for example, 30 or 40 million shares as the message of their tapes can be a bit confusing at times if you’re a beginner. You may see 14 orders come through at bid with large sizes but that may not mean as much as if the stock was trading less volume. Remember to always keep everything in context. If your stock trades gigantic volume, you should expect a different kind of tape action.
Make Price Prove the Point
Up to this point, we have discussed order size, speed, and condition. While these are all key components of the tape, you must let price prove the point. For example, if you are looking to short a stock at $54 and there is strong order flow selling at bid at that level, my experience has shown me to wait for that level to break. If it does not, you may be involved in a trap that was made to get the weak traders out and then take the stock in the opposite direction.
Don’t Let Your Ego Get in Your Way
One of the biggest mistakes that I see many traders making is that they get attached to their positions. In an effort to appease their egos, they tend to take a trade and stick with it until they are right. Remember, day trading is an extremely fast game and if you do not react with speed, you will be left in the dust. When you make a decision based on that tape action and the stock does not go in your favor relatively quickly, odds are that you are in a bad trade.
Focus
It is extremely important to have utmost focus when you are trading and trying to listen to the message that tape is giving you. Try and stay in a zone and filter out the extra noise. If you are going to put a trade on, be in that trade and nothing else. This will help you feel when it is right to stay in the stock and when it’s time to get out.
Conclusion
Tape reading is a very important skill to have as a short term trader and can keep you out of many bad trades. Remember, don’t be an action junkie, psyching yourself up for every trade. If you do this, you will find a reason to put on bad trades in the heat of the moment.
Discipline is key and it takes time to develop. For any new traders looking to try this out, please practice, practice, practice before you put your hard earned money at work. Mastering the art of tape reading will take time, but when you do, you will be rewarded.
Kunal Vakil is the co-founder of www.mysmp.com (My Stock Market Power) which provides free trading articles and videos to investors covering a broad range of trading topics. Prior to becoming a full time day trader, Kunal designed bond trading systems for one of the largest secondary mortgage market participants and provided management consulting services to many top financial services companies.