MidnightTrader Earnings Play: American Eagle Outfitters

American Eagle Outfitters
(
AEO |
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is due with its Q1 results ahead of the opening bell on Wednesday, May 28. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect the company to report a profit of $0.19 per share on revenue of $636 million.

In the last 12 earnings-driven extended-hours events we’ve tracked, AEO has widened its move in 7 out of 12 of the following regular-hours trading sessions. In the near-term, the stock favors a narrowing trend, cutting back its extended-hours performance in the following regular session in three of the last four quarters.

On March 12, 2008, AEO advanced 4.7% in pre-market trade after meeting Q4 earnings expectations and coming in shy on sales. The gain was trimmed just a bit in the following regular session, with AEO ending the day up 4.0%.

In the Nov. 27, 2007 pre-market, AEO was up 1.3% after reporting shy with sales and meeting with earnings, plus guiding largely below the Street’s view. The stock finished regular trading that day down 0.7%.

On Aug. 21, 2007, AEO advanced 1.7% in pre-market trade after beating on Q2 but also issuing a Q3 earnings view below the Street estimate. The stock saw that gain evaporate in the regular session, losing 0.8% by the closing bell.

On May 22, 2007, AEO eased 1.9% in the pre-market session despite about meeting Q1 estimates and setting a share buyback. Shares fell even further in the regular session, ending down 4.3%.

On March 7, 2007, AEO slipped 3.6% in the pre-market session despite topping Q4 and FY sales estimates and reporting Q4 EPS in line with expectations. Shares recovered slightly in regular trade but still ended down 2.8%.

Brooks McFeely is widely regarded as the leading expert on extended-hours trading. He is a Managing Partner for Brochet Capital Partners, LP and the founder of Midnight Trader, Inc. (www.midnighttrader.com), the leading provider of pre-market and after-hours trading analysis and news to retail and institutional investors.