MidnightTrader Earnings Play: Intel Corp.
Intel
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INTC |
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PowerRating) is due with its Q3 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are forecasting the chip-maker to come in with a profit of $0.34 per share on revenue of $10.261 billion.
INTC slightly favors a narrowing pattern following after-hours earnings events, cutting back its evening trade in next-day action in 11 of its last 18 earnings events. In the near-term, the stock has narrowed its move in three of four quarters.
Looking deeper into the performance data, INTC is a stock for longs to be wary of in the off-hours, and perhaps an issue for shorts to line up if it should post an earnings-driven after-hours upside or downside move. INTC has advanced in the after-hours in nine of the last 18 quarters we’ve tracked. However, it saw that advance reverse or narrow in next day trade in seven of those quarters. Also, the stock has recorded nine quarters where it posted an earnings-driven after-hours decline. In five of those events it recorded a more aggressive downside move the following regular session – more ammunition for shorts to linger near the stock on a negative evening move.
Here’s a look at the stock’s one-year performance:
On July 15, 2008, INTC edged up 0.4% in evening trade after beating on Q2 and setting its guidance in line to above expectations. It managed to eke out a higher gain the next day, rising 1% by the regular session close on July 16.
On April 15, 2008, INTC jumped 7.9% in after-hours action after posting better-than-expected Q1 results and in-line guidance. The gain was more subdued the following day, with INTC closing the April 16 regular session up 5.8%.
On Jan. 15, 2008, INTC dropped 14.3% during evening trading after INTC missed with Q4 estimates and guided for Q1 sales in line with Street view. The loss was reined in slightly the next day and INTC closed down 12.3%.
On Oct. 16, 2007, INTC gained 5% in evening activity after beating Q3 estimates and forecasting Q4 above Street views. Shares, though, lost a bit of ground the next day, ending the day session up 4.8%.
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