MidnightTrader Earnings Play: JDA Software Group

JDA Software Group
(
JDAS |
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is due out with Q1 earnings in the post-bell session. The Thomson Financial mean estimate calls for EPS of $0.37 per share on $96 billion in revenue.

JDAS is just holding a long-term pattern of wider post-earnings share performance. The stock has seen more aggressive next-day play in 10 of the last 16 quarters MidnightTrader has tracked. The near-term performance favors widening, adding to its evening performance in next-day trade in three of last four quarters.

On April 28, 2008, JDAS advanced 1% in night trade after beating earnings expectations. The stock leaped higher the following day, rising 7%.

On Jan. 28, 2008, the stock fell 2.7% during evening trading after the company beat with Q4 and full year results. The loss swelled to 6% the next day.

On Oct. 22, 2007, the stock jumped 8.8% during evening trading after the company beat with Q3 results. The gain improved to 10% the next day.

On July 23, 2007, JDAS charged 11.9% higher in after-hours trade after the company easily topped Q2 expectations. It narrowed that upside slightly the next day, ending the July 24 regular session up 10.6%.

On April 23, 2007, JDAS slipped 0.5% in after-hours trade after the company beat Q1 expectations. It saw that slim downside evaporate the following day as JDAS ended the April 24 regular session with a 2.1% gain.

On Jan. 29, 2007, JDAS jumped 6.8% in night trade despite missing Q4 estimates. Shares strengthened further the next day, closing up 8.9% in the following regular session.

On Oct. 23, 2006, JDAS shed 6.2% in after-hours trade after the company reported results below expectations. The stock continued its downside trend the following day, closing the regular session off 9.8%.

On July 24, 2006, JDAS was cut for a 0.5% decline in night play on the heels of in-line revenue results, better-than-expected EPS, and guidance that mostly matched expectations. The stock pushed deeper into the red on July 25, losing 1.7% by the closing bell.

On April 24, 2006, shares finished the evening session just lower, slipping 0.7% after JDAS reports its latest earnings and revenue figures below what Wall Street had expected. The loss fattened to 4.1% during the following day’s regular trading hours.

On Jan. 23, 2006, the issue was down 2.1% in the evening session, after the company missed by a penny with Q4 profit on weaker revenue that what the Street had guessed. The stock rebounded, however, to advance 1% the next day.

On October 24, 2005, JDAS gained 3% after beating Q3 expectations. Shares added to those gains the next day, ending regular-hours trade up 9.6%.

On July 25, 2005 JDAS advanced 3.6% in evening trade after the company topped Q2 expectations. Buyers continued pumping the upside on July 26, advancing 6.4% between the bells.

On April 25, 2005, JDAS climbed 2.8% after Q1 revenue edged above Street expectations and EPS beat the Street’s target by 1 cent. Upside momentum slowed in the April 26 regular session, when JDAS closed up only 0.5%.

On Jan. 24, 2005, the stock surged 12% in after-hours trading after Q4 revenue decisively topped the Street view and EPS came in 8 cents above the FC mean. Again, gains narrowed in the Jan. 25 regular session, and JDAS closed up 10.3%.

JDAS gained 1.3% the night of Oct. 18, 2004, after reporting in-line Q3 revs and EPS that beat the Street by a penny. Its upside widened in the Oct. 19 regular session, when it jumped 7.2%.

On July 19, 2004, JDAS lost 3.2% after hours despite Q2 results that matched Wall Street expectations. Traders thought better of the stock in the next-day regular session, and it changed course to close up a healthy 4%.

Brooks McFeely is widely regarded as the leading expert on extended-hours trading. He is a Managing Partner for Brochet Capital Partners, LP and the founder of Midnight Trader, Inc. (www.midnighttrader.com), the leading provider of pre-market and after-hours trading analysis and news to retail and institutional investors.