MidnightTrader Earnings Play: Starbucks

Brooks McFeely is widely regarded as the leading expert on extended-hours trading. He is a Managing Partner for Brochet Capital Partners, LP and the founder of Midnight Trader, Inc. (www.midnighttrader.com), the leading provider of pre-market and after-hours trading analysis and news to retail and institutional investors.

Starbucks
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SBUX |
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is set to report its Q3 results after the bell tonight, and Wall Street is looking for the coffee retailer to post a gain of $0.18 per share on revenue of $2.6 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

SBUX is mixed in its session-to-session performance over the last four years, crossing wider regular session closing levels following only eight of its last 18 after-hours earnings events and putting up 10 narrowing moves. But very near term, the stock has narrowed or reversed its share movement during the next day’s session in three of the last four quarters.

On April 30, 2008, the stock fell 0.6% during evening trading after a Q2 earnings meet. Shares rebounded to gain 2.6% the next day.

On Jan. 30, 2008, SBUX shed 1.5% in evening trade after beating by a penny on EPS and posting in-line revenue. It added slightly to that downside the next day, losing 1.6% by the closing bell.

On Nov. 15, 2007, SBUX slid 8.3% in after-hours trade after beating quarterly estimates but issuing guidance that was in-line to lower than expectations. It cut that downside the following day, ending the Nov. 16 regular session down 3.8%.

On Aug. 1, 2007, the stock gained 1.4% in the evening hours after reporting largely in line. The stock fell 1% the next day.

On May 3, 2007, the stock managed a slim 0.4% evening gain after reporting above year-ago results and setting upbeat guidance. Shares ended down 2.9% the next day.

On Jan 31, 2007, the stock squeezed out a 0.8% gain after SBUX reported in line with EPS and beats with revenue. The stock reversed to close down 1.5% the next day.