MidnightTrader’s Earnings Notebook: IBM, Intel & JP Morgan Chase

Regular-Session: MidnightTrader’s Earnings Notebook: International Business Machines
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6:00 AM, Apr 15, 2008 — IBM is due with its Q1 results in the extended-hours on Wednesday, April 16, and analysts polled by Thomson First Call are expecting a profit of $1.45 per share on sales of $23.69 billion.

IBM just favors a long-term narrowing pattern in its session-to-session performance, crossing narrower next-day percentage closing levels following after-hours earnings events in eight of the last 15 quarters. That trend has changed recently. In the near-term, the stock favors a wider move in three of the four latest quarters.

On Jan. 14, 2008, IBM pre-announced better-than-expected Q4 results in pre-market trade and the stock advanced 8% before the bell. It edged back from that upside in the following regular session, holding a 5.4% rise into the Jan. 14 closing bell.

IBM reported preliminary Q4 EPS of $2.80 per share, up from $2.26 per share in the year ago quarter. Revs were $28.9 billion, up 10% vs. Q4 last year. The FC mean was $2.60 per share on revs of $27.8 billion.

On Oct. 16, 2007, the stock fell 1.1% in evening action after IBM beat by a penny with Q3 EPS. The loss was a deeper 3.2% the next day.

On July 18, 2007, IBM rose 3.1% in night trade after beating Q2 estimates. Shares gained a little more the next day, closing the regular session up 4.3%.

On April 17, 2007, IBM slipped 0.8% in after-hours trade after the company met on earnings and beat on revenue. Sellers piled on for more declines in the next day’s regular session, skinning the stock for a 2.4% decline.

On Jan. 18, 2007, the stock fell 5.5% in the after-hours session despite reporting ahead of the Street in Q4 and toping with FY sales. Shares fell by a slimmer 3.3% the next day.

On Oct. 17, 2006, IBM advanced 5.2% in after-hours trading after the company beat Q3 expectations. The gain was cut back in the Oct. 18 regular session, with the stock ending the day up a more modest 3.3%.

On July 18, 2006, IBM inched up 1.5% in night trade after topping Q2 expectations. The shares rose a bit further the next day, closing the regular session up 2.4%.

On April 18, 2006, IBM shares advanced 1.4% in evening trade after the company beat on EPS and posted in-line revenue numbers. That gain failed to hold through the next day’s regular session as IBM closed April 19 down 1.7%.

On Jan. 17, 2006, IBM edged down 0.1% in evening trade after the company beat on EPS but missed on revenue. It bounced back from that slim decline in the Jan. 18 regular session, climbing 0.9% by the closing bell.

On Oct. 17, 2005, IBM advanced 2.3% in evening trade after beating on EPS and reporting revenue in-line with expectations. It ended the Oct. 18 regular session with a less vigorous upside move, rising 1%.

On July 18, 2005 IBM advanced 4.5% in night trade after the company beat Street estimates. It pared back that upside momentum on July 19, closing the regular session up a more modest 2.3%.

On April 14, 2005 IBM declined 3.9% in evening play after the company reported results up from year ago levels but came in shy on revenue. The stock lost a more aggressive 8.3% in the April 15 regular session.

On Jan. 18, 2005 IBM edged up 0.1% in night trade after beating expectations, but failed to hold those gains the following day, sliding 1.9% by the closing bell on Jan. 19.

Back on Oct. 18, 2004 IBM advanced 2.3% in after-hours trade after topping the then-current Street view. It charged higher in next-day trade, rising 4% between the bells on Oct. 19.

On July 15, 2004 IBM managed a modest 0.8% evening rise after beating expectations. It slimmed down its gains on July 16, adding a mere 0.3% by that day’s close.

Regular-Session: MidnightTrader’s Earnings Notebook: Intel
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7:07 AM, Apr 15, 2008 — INTC is due with its Q1 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson First Call are forecasting the chip-maker to come in with a profit of $0.25 per share on revenue of $9.6 billion.

INTC slightly favors a narrowing pattern following after-hours earnings events, cutting back its evening trade in next-day action in nine of its last 16 earnings events. In the near-term, the stock has narrowed its move in three of four quarters.

On Jan. 15, 2008, INTC dropped 14.3% during evening trading after INTC missed with Q4 estimates and guided for Q1 sales in line with Street view. The loss was reined in slightly the next day and INTC closed down 12.3%.

On Oct. 16, 2007, INTC gained 5% in evening activity after beating Q3 estimates and forecasting Q4 above Street views. Shares, though, lost a bit of ground the next day, ending the day session up 4.8%.

On July 17, 2007, INTC slipped 4.6% in night trade despite topping Q2 sales estimates and offering in line guidance. Shares eased a bit more the next day to end the regular session down 4.8%.

On April 17, 2007, INTC edged up 2% in after hours when the company met Q1 expectations and guided Q2 sales mostly below forecasts. Shares pared those gains the next day, closing the regular session up 1.7%.

On January 16, 2007, INTC dropped 3.8% in evening trade despite beating Q4 estimates and offering Q1 sales guidance in line with Street views. Shares eased a bit more the next day, ending the regular session down 5.6%.

On Oct. 17, 2006, INTC edged up 0.9% in night trade after beating Q3 estimates and offering Q4 guidance that was in line with expectations. The shares inched higher during the next day’s regular hours trading to close up 1%.

On July 19, 2006, INTC eased 1.4% in after-hours trade when the company missed Q2 sales estimates and guided for Q3 revenues to be below Street views. Shares tumbled further the next day, closing the regular session down 7.5%.

On April 19, 2006, INTC edged up 1% in evening trade when the company topped Q1 estimates but set lower Q2 and FY06 sales guidance. Its shares dipped the next day, closing the regular session down 0.5%.

On January 17, 2006, INTC slid 9% in night trade after missing Q4 EPS estimates and guiding for Q1 sales to be below Street consensus. The shares fell further the next day, ending regular hours down 11.5%.

On Oct. 18, 2005, INTC shed 3% in after-hours trade after the company beat expectations and guided in line to mostly lower on its forward revenue outlook. It saw much of that downside pare back in the Oct. 19 regular session, eventually ending the day down a mere 0.1%.

On July 19, 2005, INTC fell 4.4% after hours after Q2 sales met and EPS topped Street targets. The stock matched that decline in the July 20 regular session, also falling 4.4%.

On April 19, 2005 INTC shares advanced 3.2% in after-hours trade after the company beat expectations and guided sales in line with estimates. It saw the bulk of those gains evaporate between the bells on April 20 as INTC managed a mere 0.1% rise by the closing bell.

On Jan. 11, 2005 INTC added 3% in night trade after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 results. The upside was cut back modestly the next day as the stock closed the Jan. 12 regular session up 2.7%.

Back on the night of Oct. 12, 2004, INTC added 3.7% in after-hours trade after the company beat Q3 expectations and guided its Q4 sales in a range surrounding the Street view. INTC ended the Oct. 13 regular session with a narrower 3.5% gain.

INTC reported revenue shy of expectations the night of July 13, 2004, and the stock tumbled 4.7% in that night’s after-hours trade. It saw more aggressive selling in the following day’s regular session, ultimately ending the July 14 regular session down 10.5%.

Finally, back on April 13, 2004, INTC beat expectations and issued in-line guidance, and the stock closed evening play down 1.5%. It ended the following day’s trade off a narrower 1%.

Regular-Session: MidnightTrader’s Earnings Notebook: Linear Technology
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7:09 AM, Apr 15, 2008 — LLTC is scheduled to report Q3 results tonight, and on average, analysts polled by Thomson FC expect the company to earn $0.43 per share on revenues of $297 million.

LLTC’s session-to-session trading pattern following earnings favors a widening pattern, doing so following seven of its last 12 after-hours earnings releases. The near-term pattern shows three wider moves in the last four quarters.

On Jan. 15, 2008, LLTC gained 1.9% during evening trading after the company topped with Q2 EPS and about met with sales. The gain stretched to 3.8% the next day.

On Oct. 16, 2007, LLTC edged down 0.1% in after-hours trade after topping on Q1 earnings results and forecasting a sequential rise in Q2 results. The stock added to its downside in the Oct. 17 regular session, declining 2.4% by the closing bell.

On July 24, 2007, LLTC rose 4.7% in night trade after beating Q4 estimates and guiding higher for Q1. However, shares lost their momentum the next day and ended the regular session up only 1.5%.

On April 17, 2007, LLTC jumped 9.3% in after hours when the company beat Q3 estimates and set an accelerated buyback program. Shares rose further the following day, closing up 12.2%.

On Jan. 16, 2007, the stock fell 2.2% after a miss with Q2 revenue. The next day, the decline narrowed somewhat, to 1.8%.

On Oct. 17, 2006, LLTC dropped 4.7% in after-hours trade when the company predicted Q2 results would fall sequentially. The company beat Q1 earnings estimates that night. Shares fell further the next day, ending the regular session down 7%.

On July 25, 2006, shares fell 5.7% in the evening session after the company reported revenue below the Street view, although EPS ahead. The loss was reined in to 2.8% the next day.

On April 18, 2006, LLTC slimmed down 0.7% after the company missed on its sales estimates and met on EPS. It declined a bit more the next day, losing 1.5% by the closing bell.

On Jan. 17, 2006, LLTC declined 2.6% in evening trade after reporting in-line revenue, beating on EPS and guiding to match or beat expectations. Despite the solid results, the stock continued its downside move on Jan. 18, ending regular session trade down 2.9%.

On Oct. 18, 2005, LLTC slimmed down 2.2% in after-hours trade after the company came in shy on sales but beat on earnings. The stock recorded a decline just a hair deeper south on Oct. 19, losing 2.3% by the regular session close.

On July 26, 2005, LLTC reported Q4 sales that just missed estimates and guided for flat Q1 sales versus Q4. The shares tumbled 4.2% in after hours but narrowed its losses during the following day session. It closed the next day’s regular-hours session down 3.3%.

On April 19, 2005, LLTC beat Q3 expectations but guided Q4 lower. The shares eased 0.7% in the after hours session and further widened their losses the next session, ending the day session down 6.5%.

Companies: LLTC

Price: 30.58, Change: 0, Percent Change: 0

Regular-Session: MidnightTrader’s Earnings Notebook: Source Interlink Companies
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5:55 AM, Apr 15, 2008 — SORC is expected to report Q4 results after the bell tonight. There are no analyst estimates on Thomson First Call.

SORC’s performance between the sessions over the last few years is just favoring a widening trend, with eight widening moves and five narrowing moves. In the near term, the stock has widened in three of four quarters.

On Dec. 6, 2007, SORC declined 2.7% in after-hours trade despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 results. It added to its downside the next day, losing 11.8%.

On Sept. 10, the stock fell 2.3% after missing with Q2 results. The loss was 6.4% the next day.

On June 11, 2007, SORC slipped 1.6% in extended-hours trade after the company reported results shy of expectations. It added to the downside in the June 12 regular session, dropping 3.2% by the closing bell.

On April 25, 2007, SORC gained 6.6% in evening session after its latest results, which included sales below the Street’s view. The gain was pared to 3.7% the next day.

On December 11, 2006, SORC dropped 4.9% in night trade after Q3 earnings declined from a year ago. Shares fell further the next day, shedding 9% by the end of the following day’s regular session.

On Sept. 11, 2006, SORC fell 2.4% in the evening hours after reporting below the Street’s view for Q2. The loss increased just slightly the next day with shares finishing down 2.8%.

On June 8, 2006, SORC advanced 1% in evening trade after the company topped Q1 expectations. Buyers jumped more aggressively into the issue on June 9, gaining 9.5% by the closing bell.

On April 17, 2006, SORC was hit with a 6% decline after coming in with Q4 results less than Street estimates. The downside was cut back a bit on April 18 as SORC ended the day down 5.4%.

On December 12, 2005, SORC fell 8.1% in evening trade after it beat Q3 earnings estimates but offered a cautious Q4 outlook. The company declined to give any guidance for Q4 that night. Shares rebounded a bit but remained weaker the next day, closing the regular session down 3.7%.

On Sept. 8, 2005 SORC declined 7.8% in after-hours trade after the company beat on revenue but reported EPS short of expectations. Sellers hammered away at the stock the next day, pressuring it a more aggressive 9.6% lower by the Sept. 9 close.

On June 6, 2005, SORC surged 16.1% after topping Q1 estimates. It ran into a bit more resistance in the June 7 regular session, when it closed up only 11.1%.

SORC edged up 0.8% on the night of April 18, 2005 after posting in-line sales and higher-than-expected EPS. It reversed direction in the April 19 regular session, slipping 0.8%.

On the night of Dec. 9, 2004, SORC slipped 2.4% after meeting Q3 revenue estimates but falling a penny shy on EPS. It logged a wider decline in the Dec. 10 regular session, closing down 3.6%.

Companies: SORC

Price: 1.33, Change: 0, Percent Change: 0

Regular-Session: MidnightTrader’s Earnings Notebook: Seagate Technology
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STX |
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7:13 AM, Apr 15, 2008 — STX is due with its Q3 results after the close tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson First Call expect the company to report a profit of $0.69 per share on revenue of $3.3 billion.

STX gives a nod to wider next day moves, which it’s shown in nine of the last 14 quarters. Near term, the stock has put up a wider next-day performance in three of four quarters.

On Jan. 17, 2008, the stock fell 3.9% in extended-hours trading after STX beat by a penny and guided mostly in line. The loss swelled to 8.8% the next day.

On Oct. 16, 2007, the stock gained 1.1% during evening hours after STX beats with Q1 and guides above the Street. The gain expanded to 2.1% by the closing bell the next day.

On July 19, 2007, the stock gained 1.5% in the evening hours after the company reported ahead with revenue and set guidance. The gain improved to 2.1% by the closing bell the next day.

On April 17, 2007, STX declined 5.8% in after-hours trade after the company missed earnings estimates and cut its outlook. It narrowed its downside the next day, closing the April 18 regular session down 3.8%.

On Jan. 23, 2007, the stock gained 3.9% in the evening session after reporting ahead of the Street with Q2 results and guiding to beat. The gain swelled to 8.2% the next day.

On Oct. 24, 2006, STX firmed 3.6% in the evening hours following a report that showed the company ahead with Q1 figures. The gain expanded to 6.1% the next day.

On Aug. 8, 2006, STX lost 4.7% in after-hours trade after the company the company reported weaker-than-expected earnings. Some of that decline narrowed the next day as STX closed the Aug. 9 regular session down 3.6%.

On April 18, 2006, STX shed 4.6% in evening action on the heels of better-than-expected results but guidance that was in-line to lower than estimates. The stock ended the April 19 regular session off 6.4%.

On Jan. 18, 2006, STX was up 7.7% after reporting EPS and revenue ahead of the Street’s view. It also guided for Q3 and the full year above analysts’ expectations. The gain was reined in to 6.8% the next day.

On October 18, 2005, STX slipped 0.06% after missing Q1 sales estimates and guiding Q2 below expectations. Shares widened their losses the next day, ending the regular-hours session down 2.3%.

On July 19, 2005 STX dropped 2.3% after beating Q4 expectations. STX narrowed its losses, ending the day session down 1.9%.

On April 19, 2005 STX jumped 3.5% in after-hours trade after the company beat expectations. It added modestly to its upside the next day, rising 3.7% by the April 20 regular session close.

On Jan. 18, 2005 STX edged down 0.2% after beating estimates and guiding higher. Despite the positive news, the stock continued its downward trend on Jan. 19, losing 6.1% between the bells.

On Oct. 19, 2004 STX advanced 1.2% in night trade after topping the Street view. Those gains sputtered out on Oct. 20 as STX lost 3.6% in regular session trade.

Companies: STX

Price: 19.97, Change: 0, Percent Change: 0

Regular-Session: MidnightTrader’s Earnings Notebook: JP Morgan Chase
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6:10 AM, Apr 15, 2008 — JPM is due to report Q1 results in the pre-market session on Wednesday, April 16. The average estimate from analysts polled by Thomson First Call is sales of $16.97 billion and $0.64 per share in earnings.

Over the last two years, JPM just favors narrowing of its extended-hours performance into the next regular session, doing so in three of five quarters. In most instances, JPM has topped expectations. In the near-term, the stock is mixed, with two widening and two narrowing moves in the last four quarters.

On Jan. 16, 2008, JPM advanced 3.1% in pre-market trade after topping Q4 revenue expectations and setting cautious guidance going forward. The stock added to its upside in the following regular session, closing the day up 5.7%.

In the Oct. 17, 2007 pre-market session, JPM rose 3.9% after topping Q3 expectations. Shares, however, eased back slightly in the regular session, ending up 2.8%.

On July 18, 2007, JPM lost 2.2% in the pre-market session despite beating Q2 estimates. It narrowed that loss slightly by ending the regular session down 2%.

On April 18, 2007, JPM edged up 2.6% on better-than-expected Q1 results and a $10 billion stock buyback program. Shares rose further during the regular session and closed up 3.7%.

On January 17, 2007, JPM firmed 0.4% after beating Q4 estimates. Shares inched slightly higher to end the regular session up 0.08%.

Brooks McFeely is widely regarded as the leading expert on extended-hours trading. He is a Managing Partner for Brochet Capital Partners, LP and the founder of Midnight Trader, Inc. (www.midnighttrader.com), the leading provider of pre-market and after-hours trading analysis and news to retail and institutional investors.