Mobius Meltdown, VIX Signals, Stocks Sink

A lackluster day as the major indexes drifted lower prior to surging higher yet failing to break into positive territory. Profit taking and a dire global stock meltdown forecast from respected Templeton Asset Management’s Chairman, Mark Mobius, triggered market pessimism to raise its ugly head once again. He is calling for as much of a decline as 30% within the next year or so. In addition, futures are indicating that a sharp rise in the VIX is likely to occur corresponding with the historically negative months of September/October. The DJIA gave back -32.12 to 9337.95 after trading lower on the day, the Nasdaq fell -8.01 to 1992.24 and the broad based S&P 500 gave back -3.38 to 1007.10.

Research In Motion
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– Suffered an UBS downgrade to neutral sending shares lower by 5.14% or $3.97 to $73.12.

Tibco Software
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– Word of a possible SAP buyout sent shares higher by 13.34% or $1.13 to $9.60.

Merck
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– The drug maker was raised to a conviction buy at Goldman Sachs with shares climbing 1.66% or 50 cents to $30.60.

Best Buy
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– Goldman cut its outlook to neutral sending shares lower by 5.26% or $2.09 to $37.66.

Gold fell $12.60 to $946.90, oil gave back 33 cents to $70.95 and the VIX fear index gained 0.93% to 24.99.

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Market Snapshot

Dow

-32.12 9337.95

NASDAQ

-8.01 1992.24

S&P 500

-3.38 1007.10

Economic
News

Productivity-Prel (Q2): Consensus: 5.4%, Prior: 1.6%

Unit Labor Costs (Q2): Consensus: -2.4%, Prior: 3.0%

Wholesale Inventories (Jun): Consensus: -0.9%, Prior: -0.8%

Trade Balance (Jun): Consensus: -$28.5B, Prior: $26.0B

Crude Inventories (08/07): Consensus: NA, Prior: +1.67M

Treasury Budget (Jul): Consensus: -$180.0B, Prior: NA

FOMC Rate Decision: Consensus: NA, Prior: 0.00%-0.25%

Export Prices ex-ag. (Jul): Consensus: NA, Prior: 0.8%

Import Prices ex-oil (Jul): Consensus: NA, Prior: 0.2%

Initial Claims (08/08): Consensus: 545K, Prior: 550K

Retain Sales (Jul): Consensus: 0.7%, Prior: 0.6%

Retail Sales ex-auto (Jul): Consensus: 0.1%, Prior: 0.3%

Business Inventories (Jun): Consensus: -0.9%, Prior: -1.0%

Core CPI (Jul): Consensus: 0.1%, Prior: 0.2%

CPI (Jul): Consensus: 0.0%, Prior: 0.7%

Capacity Utilization (Jul): Consensus: 68.4%, Prior: 68.0%

Industrial Production (Jul): Consensus: 0.4%, Prior: -0.4%

Mich Sentiment-Prel (Aug): Consensus: 69.0, Prior: 66.0