Month’s End
The Nasdaq 100
(
NDX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) traded
down to
an intraday low of 1743 vs. the .38 daily retracement level of 1741, then
rallied to 1794. It retraced to the .786 intraday level during the noon hour and
then you got the excellent afternoon uptrend. The tops of bases in
(
NVLS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
AMAT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) brought in some buying, which was positive.Â
After an early rally, NVLS
for example retraced .618 and then ran 4 points from there. There were many
other stocks that also rallied from Fib retracements. Most all of the sectors
participated except the Basics. The NDX ended +3%, SOX +3.2%, SPX +1.6% and the
Dow +1.6%. Total volume was 1.2 billion shares with advancers greater than
decliners by 1031 and the volume ratio at 70.
As a result of yesterday’s
afternoon rally, there are many three-day pullback top-of-the-range setups on
the daily charts which might be tested early today, which means shake out the
overnight holders who carry over a position if it closes up on the day and the
overall market is up. There might have been a higher probability before programs
started but no longer, unless you have deep pockets with sufficient
capital.Â
That leaves daytraders out
of the equation unless you carry a trade overnight with an options strategy
which I have been harping on since Tradehard.com started. I have emails from
many of you that now do that — but it has cost most of you too much to reach
that conclusion. No one ever believes it until after the fact. That’s part of a
trader’s education.
The S&Ps and NDX
futures are a little soft as I do this at 7:45 a.m. this morning. Don’t take any
first-bar breakouts above Wednesday’s highs. Second entry setups are better
advised if they shake the tree of the closing-high buyers for Wednesday, and
then a pullback setup would be a better do. This is also the month-end period
and the SPX is up +5.9% from the March close, so I would bet that the
institutional closet indexes want a positive month end.
Stocks
Today
|
(June
|
||
|
Fair Value
|
Buy
|
Sell
|
|
5.45
|
 6.75 |
 4.30Â
|
You can take all of yesterday’s
list and use it again today as they are almost all three-day pullbackÂ
top-of-the-range setups. Stay with the ones that are at or above their 50-day
EMAs — 62% of the NDX closed in the top 25% of the range. Highlighting a few of
the ones that are providing the best two-way intraday opportunities, I would
select
(
NVLS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
VRTS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
JNPR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CIEN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
MERQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
Other stocks to watch are
(
LEH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
and
(
MER |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). Also in the HOLDRs, the BBHs (if they come for the Biotechs
today), the OIHs and the SMHs.
Have a good trading day.
