• Free Book
  • Store
    • Books
    • Free First Chapters
    • Free Newsletters
  • Recent Articles

TradingMarkets.com

Quantified Stock Market Trading Strategies & Systems

  • Home
  • New Trading Research
  • Education
    • Articles
      • Connors Research
      • ETFs
      • Options
      • Stocks
      • Volatility
    • Trading Lessons
    • Connors Research
    • Glossary
    • Interview Archive
    • Videos
  • Python
  • Quantamentals
    • Quantamentals: The Next Great Forefront of Trading and Investing
    • Quantamentals Resources
  • Courses
  • Store
    • New Book! The Alpha Formula
    • “Buy The Fear, Sell The Greed” – Best Seller!
    • Swing Trading College 2019
    • Trading Books and Guidebooks
    • Street Smarts
    • Online Trading Courses
    • Private Mentoring with Larry Connors
    • Customized Trading Research
    • Amibroker Strategy Add On Modules
You are here: Home / Forex / Commentary / Morning Forex Briefing

Morning Forex Briefing

April 19, 2007 by Jason Jankovsky

The USD is mixed to start New York after a one-way overnight session that saw the USD gain on the GBP and EURO while lose ground against the JPY. The big news was Yen carry unwinds (as expected) and the release of China’s GDP data fueled the liquidation. At 11.1% estimated Y/Y growth, fears that China’s record expansion pace will destabilize world economies sparked speculation that the PBOC will have to raise rate soon to slow the growth rate.

Traders note that the USD/JPY will likely take the brunt of a rate hike and sold the pair heavily. Falling to a low print at 117.60, traders note stops were elected under the 117.80 area as expected but no new selling is apparent as of the New York open; the pair is hovering at the 117.70 area. Analysts note that the 116.90 area is the next major level of support and look for a technical bounce from there but remind a “dead cat bounce” is more likely given the rate of carry unwinds. Cable is weaker this morning making a show back under the 2.0000 handle; low prints at 1.9983 as general liquidation runs the course.

Traders say GBP/JPY unwinds the reason for the break but the issue of the BOE hiking rates earlier than expected still has many buying dips. Although some news from the UK is due this week it is unlikely to be enough to convince traders that the potential for yet another high is in the works; traders remain cautious and are looking for a pullback. EURO is flat to open New York after light pressure overnight, high prints were at 1.3620 but option defense is very thick traders say. Although EURO made a technical high overnight, most analysts are seeing a daily double-top forming and with todays’ action remaining on the lower side a potential two-bar reversal is in the works. Techncial trade is likely for the remainder of the week as the Eurozone calendar is also light.

In my view, the USD is correcting the oversold condition against the GBP and the EURO but the biggest part of the break is still to come. Lower USD/JPY is a given in view of the potential for a China rate hike and rumors again of a BOJ rate hike but I think it is more likely that the USD/JPY will remain two-sided and range-bound. To end this week I think we will see a deeper pullback in the GBP and the EURO. Today is Philly Fed survey; expect the markets to view it as benign. With the already weakening USD to start the day it would take a strong upside surprise to rally the Greenback against the Yen but with the potential for the Yen unwinds to continue the report may be a footnote on the day. Look for higher volumes today.

USD/JPY Daily

R3: 119.20

R2: 118.60

R1: 118.20

Current Price : 117.76

S1: 117.60

S2: 116.90/117.00

S3: 116.60

Pullback under the 117.80 area finds initial stops and volumes were larger overnight traders say, lack of follow-through is a caution to shorts but the market may be waiting for the release of US data today. Close under the 117.80 area sets up further losses to the 116.90 area I think and rallies are likely to be sold near-term. ADD to working shorts on a close below 117.80 today.


GBP
/USD Daily

R3: ?

R2: 2.0120/30

R1: 2.0080

Current Price : 2.0006

S1: 1.9980

S2: 1.9920

S3: 1.9840/50

Rate showing distinct signs of topping, doji close yesterday followed by down day today indicates sentiment may be changing. Look for a pullback to find large stops under the 1.9980 area and “buy the dip” traders to stay away for the week. Test of the upside breakout likely to find support around the 1.9820 area. ADD to open shorts on a close below the 2.0000 handle.

Please see www. ProEdgeFX.com for details

Jason
Jankovsky

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and off-exchange Foreign Currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. The information contained on this email does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell by Infinity Futures, Inc., and/or its affiliates, and is not to be available to individuals in a jurisdiction where such availability would be contrary to local regulation or law.

Filed Under: Commentary, Recent

About Jason Jankovsky

Jason Alan Jankovsky is a 25+ year veteran of leveraged transaction trading. Trading extensively in Futures, Options, and FOREX since 1986, first as a customer and then as a registered broker, he is self-taught and self-educated. His articles on global cash FOREX have appeared in "Traders Savvy", "The Perspective", “SFO Magazine”, “Futures Magazine”, "FX Magazine" and other industry publications. Jason is the author of "Trading Rules that Work: The 28 Essential Lessons Every Trader Must Master","The Art of the Trade: What I Learned (and Lost) Trading the Chicago Futures Markets", and his most recent book "Time Compression Trading: Exploiting Multiple Time Frames in Zero Sum Markets ".
You can find more of Jason’s work and learn about his Psychology of Trading course at www.theliononline.com.

Buy The Fear, Sell The Greed

Buy The Fear, Sell The Greed

Swing Trading College

New Book From Larry Connors and Chris Cain, CMT – "The Alpha Formula; High Powered Strategies to Beat The Market With Less Risk"

We’re excited to announce the release of a new investment book written by Larry Connors and Chris Cain, CMT. The book, “The Alpha Formula; High Powered Strategies to Beat The Market With Less Risk “ combines… Hedge fund legend Ray Dalio’s brilliant insight into combining uncorrelated strategies… With new, minimally correlated, quantified, systematic strategies to trade… [Read More]

Buy The Alpha Formula Now

Connors Research Traders Journal (Volume 57): 7 Real-World Reasons Why Short Strategies Should Be Included In Your Portfolio

In our new book, The Alpha Formula – High Powered Strategies to Beat the Market with Less Risk, we show the benefits of including short-strategies in your portfolio. As a reminder, building portfolios should be based on First Principles – otherwise known as truths. These truths are: Markets Go Up Market Go Down Markets Go… [Read More]

Company Info

The Connors Group, Inc.
185 Hudson St., Suite 2500
Jersey City, NJ 07311
www.cg3.com

About Us

About
Careers
Contact Us
Link To Us

Company Resources

Help
Privacy Policy
Return Policy
Terms & Conditions

Properties

TradingMarkets
Connors Research

Connect with TradingMarkets

Contact

info@cg3.com
973-494-7311 ext. 628

Free Book

Short Term Trading Strategies That Work

© Copyright 2020 The Connors Group, Inc.

Copyright © 2023 · News Pro Theme on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in