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You are here: Home / Forex / Commentary / Morning Forex Briefing

Morning Forex Briefing

April 13, 2007 by Jason Jankovsky


The USD is sharply lower overnight as the majors continue to power higher; Yen crosses correcting lower but not until EURO/JPY has made a new lifetime high in Asia.
Traders note that although the majors are higher volumes have not been impressive enough to suggest a full-blown rout of the USD is in the works. Desks are reporting that option barriers are in play across the board and stops have been elected across the board suggesting that long-liquidation is leading the rates into S/R to start New York trade.

GBP is actively trading the 1.9800 handle this morning after a high print overnight at 1.9889 with option defense active at 1.9900 traders say. Stops are said to be positioned at 1.9920 area and above which should make for exciting action if triggered; GBP near an 18 year high above that area. EURO is probing the 1.3550 area in two-way trade and stops are reported above the 1.3560 area; traders note that the EURO has a very strong support area at 1.3300 area and that may have been the support area for a push to over 1.3700 near-term.

EURO/JPY set a new lifetime level and with the G7 meeting this weekend any discussion on FOREX rates will be highlighted by the Yen situation. In my view, the major pairs are showing that the USD is on the defensive for at least the medium term. EURO has attracted so sellers and appears to be headed for a test of the record high.

Cable is poised for a solid attempt at the 2.00 area and USD/JPY has the greatest potential to fall as the China Yuan reform begins to take more of a headline role. I would look for the US data today to disappoint the USD; after an initial volatility the USD is likely to make a run for new lows. Look for the major pairs to have a strong finish this week and a follow-through week next week.

USD/JPY Daily

R3: 119.20

R2: 119.00

R1: 118.80

Current Price : 118.56

S1: 118.20

S2: 118.00

S3: 117.80

Rate breaking down as USD comes under threat across the board, look for US data to disappoint the USD bulls and possibly extend the downside into stops reported to be resting at 117.80 area or so. Close below the 118.40 area effectively terminates upside potential near-term. Look for volatility early in the day but a weak close you can ADD to open short positions.


EURO/USD Daily

R3: 1.3660

R2: 1.3600

R1: 1.3550

Current Price : 1.3531

S1: 1.3480

S2: 1.3420

S3: 1.3380

Pair making a run for lifetime highs, look for stops above the 1.3550 area to be triggered if US data disappoints. Close over the 1.3550 area sets up a run to the 1.3700/50 area target in my view. Potential sell-off is coming so be ready to liquidate longs soon. Buy the dip when it comes, EURO could see 1.4000 this year.

Please see www. ProEdgeFX.com for details

Jason
Jankovsky

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and off-exchange Foreign Currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. The information contained on this email does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell by Infinity Futures, Inc., and/or its affiliates, and is not to be available to individuals in a jurisdiction where such availability would be contrary to local regulation or law.

Filed Under: Commentary, Recent

About Jason Jankovsky

Jason Alan Jankovsky is a 25+ year veteran of leveraged transaction trading. Trading extensively in Futures, Options, and FOREX since 1986, first as a customer and then as a registered broker, he is self-taught and self-educated. His articles on global cash FOREX have appeared in "Traders Savvy", "The Perspective", “SFO Magazine”, “Futures Magazine”, "FX Magazine" and other industry publications. Jason is the author of "Trading Rules that Work: The 28 Essential Lessons Every Trader Must Master","The Art of the Trade: What I Learned (and Lost) Trading the Chicago Futures Markets", and his most recent book "Time Compression Trading: Exploiting Multiple Time Frames in Zero Sum Markets ".
You can find more of Jason’s work and learn about his Psychology of Trading course at www.theliononline.com.

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