Morning Forex Briefing

The USD is trading mixed to start New York this morning after a quieter night overnight where attention remained fixed on the Yen crosses. USD bulls have a tough day ahead today as US data released this morning is expected to be USD neutral; given the recent correction lower in the USD against the majors a lower day ahead of the weekend is likely. Due to the heavy focus on the Yen crosses the USD is marginally better against the JPY today; traders note that weak shorts were covering last night as stops above the 117.40 area were triggered for a brief rally up to technical resistance at the 117.70 area. Traders expect the 117.80 area and above to hold more liquidating stops from poorly set shorts and above there offers are said to be resting at the 118.15 area and again at 118.30; both were support on the way down the past few days.

GBP is firmer and trading a solid 1.9300 handle today; traders note that some early European weakness was seen on weaker than expected UK manufacturing data. Russian names were seen selling Cable but lows at technical support held the selling in check; low prints at 1.9265.

EURO is firm above the 1.3130 area overnight with high prints at 1.3160 leaving stops above the 1.3170/80 area intact for now. Traders say that a move over the 1.3200 area is likely if US data disappoints today as cross-spreading for Yen is likely holding the EURO up at technical resistance and USD pressure could result in a double-push into stops said to be resting above the 1.3200 area. Volumes were lighter as expected ahead of important data and today’s action will likely set the tone for early next week as no major additional economic news is due until Wednesday next week. In my view, the USD is set to make solid highs for the near-term against GBP and EURO. I think the upward correction to 118.60 area in USD/JPY needs to be completed before any serious pressure comes on in that pair but volatility across the board is likely to increase as we finish out the quarter. Look for a solid down day for the USD today.


R3: 118.50

R2: 118.00/10

R1: 117.70

Current Price : 117.40

S1: 117.00

S2: 116.60/70

S3: 116.20

Pair continuing to build on recovery buying as new highs for the week are printed overnight, expect solid upward buying as poorly set shorts cover ahead of the weekend; stops said to be thick above the 118.00 area but option defense expected at 118.00 the figure. Target of 118.60 for current open longs; aggressive traders can ADD again on a solid Friday close above the 117.20 area today.


R3: 1.3220/30

R2: 1.3200

R1: 1.3180

Current Price : 1.3155

S1: 1.3120

S2: 1.3100

S3: 1.3080

Rate building on support found at 1.3080 area as three days of firmness give way to a Friday close near the middle of the week’s range; potential neutral “doji” week developing but a solid attempt to a weekly high today will make this a continuation week. Stops above the 1.3200 area said to be thick, bids at 1.3080 are said to be solid on a break lower.

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