Taking a look at the most overbought and oversold ETFs with just a few minutes left before the close on Thursday, there are precious few exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trading in oversold territory
above the 200-day moving average.
But looking at the other side of the high probability trading equation – the “sell the buying” side – reveals not just a number of ETFs (leveraged and non-leveraged) that have become overbought
below the 200-day moving average, but an entire sector that may have moved too far too fast to the upside and become vulnerable to short term reversal.
The Bounce in Basic Materials
Of the few funds that are overbought below the 200-day moving average, the number of ETFs that are related to basic or industrial materials is eye-catching.
The ^SLX^ is among the most overbought ETFs in the market, earning a 2-period RSI of more than 90 along with the ^IYM^, the ^UYM^ and the ^XME^ (below).
Country Funds Ready to Fall Back?
While basic materials are the sector that should probably attract the most attention from high probability traders, exchange-traded funds linked to countries like Russia and the United Kingdom are
also becoming overbought below the 200-day moving average.
Examples of these overbought country funds included representatives of the BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China in the form of the ^RSX^ and the ^EWZ^, both of which gained more than 3% on Thursday. As for the ^EWU^, the fund was back in overbought territory below the 200-day
moving average after a Thursday rally of well over 2%.
Oversold ETFs: Only the Lonely
Based on our research, there are only two exchange-traded funds that are oversold above the 200-day moving average that may be of interest to high probability traders. Those two funds are the
^DUG^ and the ^UUP^ (below). The reversal in UUP has been especially sharp, with the ETF moving from overbought territory to oversold territory in two sessions.
With Larry Connors’ High Probability ETF Trading Software, short term traders have access to the same kind of “buy the selling, sell the buying” trading strategies that professional traders have used successfully for decades.
Click here to start your free trial to Larry Connors’ High Probability ETF Trading Software today!
David Penn is Editor in Chief at TradingMarkets.com.