Gary Kaltbaum is an investment adviser with over 25 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”… a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
Commentary for September 23, 2010
Before I get into the market, I have to put my 2 cents in.
Those who have been listening to me on my radio show and watching me on my Fox appearances know exactly where I stand when it comes to fiscal responsibility, the health care plan, taxes and everything that matters to you and your wallets. I have been waiting for someone in power to wake up. I have been waiting for someone to get it. Unfortunately, they just don’t get it…and it is going to cost them dearly 39 days from today.
All my thoughts can be capsulized in one town hall meeting…and a scripted town hall meeting. In one hour, it was easy to understand that this President just doesn’t get it. It is not the message. It is the policy. I sat and watched a man tell everyone what he is going to give and not going to give and to whom. Does he really think it’s his money? I think he does. The fact is it is our money. We give it to him. All this talk about giving…I DON’T THINK SO! I don’t understand using taxpayer dollars to move the world around.
I was taught you reward success. You do not penalize success. I was taught not to be jealous of success…but to learn from success. I was taught to compliment success, not put down success. The past two years have been nothing more than one put down after another by this administration of just about every American business…and it never ends. Taxing the wealthy more and more does not affect the wealthy…all it does is PREVENT OTHERS FROM BECOMING WEALTHY…something this President fails to understand.
The other part of the equation was the President stating we cannot afford tax cuts for the wealthy. Sorry…I must say it…YES WE CAN! We can afford it! Tax cuts are not spending. It is our money in the first place. Spending is what the President is best at. The numbers he has put us behind are unimaginable and to sit there and listen to him talk about what he can and cannot afford? All you have to do is come out with budgets from 3-5 years ago…and no worries. But no! Create all kinds of emergencies in order to spend-spend-spend…and worry about paying for it later. Just keep in mind, Bill Clinton’s last budget was $1.8 trillion. Obama’s latest budget is $3.8 trillion with a $1.6 trillion deficit…so we have a deficit almost the size of Clinton’s last budget…and what are we getting for it?
For such a smart campaigner, he is not so smart at PR. Over promising and under delivering has been the result. Overrating what government can do is the problem. The question is being asked day after day…what can Obama do to create jobs? I cannot tell you how silly this is. For Obama to continue to tell what he is going to do for everybody is sheer insanity. He cannot do anything.
Government doesn’t create long-term jobs. Real jobs are created by you and I. Government can create temporary jobs…can create temporary demand like the laughable CASH FOR CLUNKERS…but all government does with its over-the-top spending is create deficits THAT HAVE TO BE PAID BACK. Hear that Krugman? This government has only destroyed potential jobs as business after business, decision maker after decision maker…have become deathly afraid to expand because they do not know what’s next. Whoops! I take that back. They do know what’s next. More taxes, higher taxes, more regulations, tougher regulations, more mandates, tougher mandates and everything under the sun that puts uncertainty into one’s mind.
So here is what Obama should do. PULL A COSTANZA (George Costanza is a fictional character in the American television sitcom Seinfeld). [On the show] Jerry Seinfeld told George Costanza that if everything he says and everything he does has been wrong, then the opposite would have to be right. So George, doing the opposite, walked up to a girl and said, “My Name Is George. I’m Unemployed And I Live With My Parents!” George got the girl, got the job and got the money.
If Obama just says and does the opposite of what he has said and done, we would all be better off. Tell the world how great this country is. Tell the world that doctors do not perform procedures that are not necessary just to make extra money. Tell the world just because you are big oil, you are Wal-Mart, you are a lawyer, you are on Wall Street, you are a lender, you are a banker, you are an insurance company…that they are not greedy and corrupt. Stop the spending…I mean really stop the spending. Balance the budget. Control the growth of government and giveaways. AND JUST GET THE HECK OUT OF THE WAY!
Let the millions of hard workers and risk takers and entrepreneurs do their thing. Let the success stories know they do not have to work into the month of July to make their first dime. Do all the things that will take the uncertainty out of the minds of everyone and watch what happens.
Government does not define people…people define people…but you continue to do the opposite. Every day, it’s a wheel-o-rama of what government is going to do next to help. I say get your own house in order before you dictate policy to everyone else. After all, if you were a business, you would be doing what Blockbuster is doing today…filing for bankruptcy. It is not too late. I hope you are listening.
My last two reports were titled “A LOW” and “THE LOW.” Fortunately, the low came to fruition but I must say, I am still seeing a lot of warts. This is not a “throw a dart” tape. It is quite narrow with plenty of ugly still in the mix. So while the NASDAQ 100 has almost got back to its April highs:
The NASDAQ has only moved a smidge above June’s and August’s highs. Same for the S&P.
The Russell 2000 and SMALL CAP indices could not even get above June and August and continue to show poor relative strength versus the big caps.
The SOX continues to be putrid…and that’s being nice as it was only able to rally back up to the declining 50-day average and only up into the May/June/July LOWS….the LOWS.
FINANCIALS only rallied up into resistance before failing on a near-term basis…with some individual names like MS and GS acting horrid.
So you can see, while the market put in a good low, plenty of areas have not gone along for the ride…which should eventually come back to haunt things. The good news is that there has been leadership as the NEW HIGH LIST has expanded and the market did get a good rally. Hopefully, any pullback will be just that. Speaking of pullbacks, near term, I think the market has been hitting a wall the past couple of days and is overdue for some pulling in. Don’t be surprised if one occurs. Markets do not go straight up forever and seeing those glaring divergences I mentioned earlier, I think one will be at hand. Again, hopefully, it is of minor consequence.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are those of the writer and may not reflect those of Wunderlich Securities, Inc. or any of its affiliates. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results. Securities offered through Wunderlich Securities Inc.
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