Naz Follows The Leader

Nasdaq 100 futures
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are following the stock that has been leading the
futures–both to the upside and downside-in recent sessions. JDS Uniphase’s
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movement last week has been a leading indicator for the narrower Nasdaq 100
and the broad tech sector. JDSU’s weighting is 5.1% of the Nasdaq 100 and it
will carry a heavier weight when it finishes its merger with SDLI.

From the
Implosion-5 and
New 10-Day Low
lists, cocoa opened at a contract low, attempted and failed a
rally and is now trading back on its lows, making this market appear very weak.
Cocoa is currently down 9 at 768. 

Coffee is trading in a narrow-range pattern at its
lows in a setup that argues for more downside. Coffee is down slightly and is
also registering on the Multiple Days Low
Volatility List
, implying that the September contract could make a
larger-than-normal move.

A multi-month high in interest rate futures could help stock index futures. September T-bonds
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and 10-year notes
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are trading in an inside day at contract highs and August federal funds futures
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are trading at a three month high. Despite an inconclusive reading on the inflation front, interest rate futures are saying that the Fed will not raise interest rates at its Aug. 22 meeting. A decision to leave rates unchanged would be a positive for stocks, especially blue chip stocks that are more sensitive to interest rate changes because they carry higher levels of debt. Dow futures
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are trading on their high of the session, up 100.0 at 10,900.0.

In the energies natural gas is gaining after posting on
the Momentum-5
List
. The contract has also traced the right shoulder of a
head-and-shoulders top. Such a setup implies that this may be the last rally before a major decline.

Heating oil is trading near its lows and is making good
on its Turtle Soup Plus One
Sell
setup, down .0085 at .8100.