New Quarter Show And Tell
You had
it all Friday, complete with
Nasdaq outage, rebalancing, sixth-month report card and big volume at 1.7
billion NYSE and 2.3 billion Nasdaq, which was cut short due to the computer
problems. The volume ratios were positive, as was breadth — which was standard
for end-of-quarter games.
The S&P 500
(
SPX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
made a run to the 50-day EMA with an intraday high of 1237, only to close down
at 1224.38 in the afternoon fiasco, -0.1% on the day. Net, Net, the box of
resistance remains the obstacle just above, starting with the 50-day EMA at
1240, then 1246. The Nasdaq 100
(
NDX |
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PowerRating)Â managed
to push above 1768, closing at 1832.75 down from the 1865 intraday high. For
daytraders, negative action starts when the NDX trades below the 50-day EMA of
1824, then Friday’s low of 1795.Â
The NYSE closes early on
Tuesday, and Thursday and Friday will be light and erratic. The Generals will
probably put some cash to work starting the new quarter and then after that I am
concerned about a deeper retracement of the April lows, unless the Generals can
demonstrate quickly with their cash that they expect the economy is recovering
— soon to be followed by earnings. The
market saw the weakening economic scenario in early 2000 as the Fed waited much
too long to cut rates, so let’s hope the markets are correct in their
anticipation of better things ahead that even the bungling Fed can’t screw up.
|
(September
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||
|
Fair Value
|
Buy
|
Sell
|
|
7.15
|
8.30 |
5.95
|
Stocks
Today
Because of all the
quarter-ending activity Friday, I put no meaning in closing action and volume on
Friday. We will put a few names in our trading plan today of the recent movers
where the Generals have been involved or persistent, but will look for second
entries. This is a good day to let
the early noise subside and wait for the first trend of the day. Let the Friday
garbage get cleaned up first.
In the semiconductors, the
Generals are primarily involved in
(
BRCM |
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PowerRating),
(
KLAC |
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PowerRating),
(
NVLS |
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PowerRating),
(
NVDA |
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(which is still locked in a narrow-range triangle — play it either way if it
comes out),
(
RFMD |
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PowerRating) and
(
AMD |
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PowerRating).
Some of the semis, as the
biotechs, were up in price on Friday but I did not like the volume in either
group. In the biotechs:
(
ABGX |
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PowerRating),
(
IDPH |
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PowerRating),
(
PDLI |
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PowerRating) and
(
CELG |
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PowerRating).Â
Other stocks that look
interesting:
(
CC |
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PowerRating),
(
BEN |
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PowerRating),
(
BSC |
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PowerRating),
(
LEH |
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PowerRating),
(
DD |
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PowerRating),
(
PCH |
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PowerRating),
(
BNI |
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PowerRating),
(
TYC |
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PowerRating),
(
GD |
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PowerRating) andÂ
(
THC |
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PowerRating).
(
HCA |
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PowerRating)
and
(
HCR |
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PowerRating) have been very good to us for the last two days — looks like
(
THC |
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PowerRating) wants to play a little catch up. Also
(
VMC |
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PowerRating),
(
KEY |
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PowerRating),
(
WFC |
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PowerRating),
(
PNC |
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PowerRating),
(
CMA |
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PowerRating), and also
(
APA |
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PowerRating).
Two other stocks to focus
on are
(
VRSN |
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News |
PowerRating) which is sitting in a little base at the 100-day EMA, and also
(
CAH |
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News |
PowerRating) on its pullback.
Have a good trading day.
Friday’s S&P 500 five-minute chart
with 8-, 20-,
60- and 260-period
EMAs
Friday’s NYSE
TICK five-minute chart